Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 24

Thread: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,874

    Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Homer Bailey broke out last year. It was the first time he had posted an ERA under 4.00 in the Majors and at times he was flat out dominant.

    Someone, and I wish I could find the article now, posted during late spring training that Homer Bailey was among the top 5 starters who had higher velocity in spring than they had in 2012 and that in the past, that had been a good sign for performance.

    Well here we are three starts in and that extra velocity is still there. I went out and grabbed the Pitch F/X data for Bailey from 2012 and 2013 thus far and charted his pitches.



    What is interesting to me is that not only is Bailey throwing his fastball and sinker harder, but they are both moving more than they did last year too. His four seamer rises and runs a little bit more, while his sinker has 2 more inches of run on it.

    His splitter is actually moving slightly less, but is 1.7 MPH faster than last year.

    His slider is coming in on a right hander about 2 inches more than it was last year and is a MPH faster.

    His curveball is both faster (by 2.2 MPH) and has a tighter break than the one he was throwing last year.

    Small sample size of course, as he only has what, 300 pitches this season? Still, encouraging signs.

  2. Likes:

    dubc47834 (05-15-2013), REDREAD (04-18-2013), The Operator (04-18-2013)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #2
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    I'm an old school guy that likes to see guys arrive and earn it. Homer deserves all the accolades he gets right now. I'm very impressed. In the past I questioned whether he would ever "get it". He has answered that question for me.

    Very dominant.

    (Joke ahead)...............atleast when Hanigan catches. (that's for you Doug!)
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  5. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,754

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Doug, aside from the small sample size, could there be some selection bias here as well? That is, do pitchers generally throw harder in April than they do over the course of a full season?

    If I recall, most pitchers lose velocity over the course of the year, suggesting that a more appropriate comparison would be to his April 2012 rather than the full season. I imagine that velocity and movement both stabilize rather quickly. So assuming you have a few hundred pitches, I imagine you've already got enough to deal with random variation. The bigger concern is probably having samples that aren't systematically biased due to selection.

    (All that said, just browsing his Pitch f/x data, there did not appear to be a significant, consistent decline in velocity over the course of 2012. But there did appear to be some reasonable variation throughout the year.)
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-18-2013 at 12:15 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,874

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Rick, pitchers actually throw slowest in April and increase velocity through July before they tend to step backward a little bit.

    Of course, that is just an "average" and everyone is different. Bailey though, has never peaked in April in his career.

  7. #5
    WOOOOO!!! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midland, MI
    Posts
    6,370

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Rick, pitchers actually throw slowest in April and increase velocity through July before they tend to step backward a little bit.

    Of course, that is just an "average" and everyone is different. Bailey though, has never peaked in April in his career.
    I've read that too, Doug, although I can't seem to find it right now.

    But yeah, Bailey is always known as a "slow starter" which is what I think has me most excited...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  8. #6
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    Out Wayne
    Posts
    22,740

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Very interesting and encouraging stuff, Doug.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  9. #7
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    637

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    I'd like to see a graph that charts his mental fortitude.

    I think he's always had the physical tools, which have been refined through development, experience and maturity. Between the ears, he appeared to transform mid-season in 2012 and that has seemingly carried over into 2013. With this kind of confidence, Homer's ceiling is extremely high.
    A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho

    www.OnCampusSports.com -- college sports covered by college students

  10. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,381

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    I just hope he stays healthy- I worry about that. If he does, he should continue to be pretty nasty this year.
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #9
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Lexington, KY
    Posts
    1,147

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Huh, that's weird, Doug. Here's what I came up with for his 2013.

    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  12. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (04-18-2013), Benihana (05-15-2013), bigredmechanism (04-19-2013), Caveman Techie (05-15-2013), Chip R (04-18-2013), Crumbley (04-18-2013), dougdirt (04-18-2013), Edd Roush (04-18-2013), Homer Bailey (04-19-2013), Norm Chortleton (05-14-2013), oneupper (05-15-2013), Spider Tre (05-14-2013), texasdave (04-18-2013), thatcoolguy_22 (04-19-2013), The Operator (04-18-2013), Tom Servo (04-18-2013), VR (05-14-2013), wolfboy (04-18-2013)

  13. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,874

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    I see what you did there.....

  14. #11
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    Huh, that's weird, Doug. Here's what I came up with for his 2013.

    Why so serious?
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  15. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,754

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Rick, pitchers actually throw slowest in April and increase velocity through July before they tend to step backward a little bit.

    Of course, that is just an "average" and everyone is different. Bailey though, has never peaked in April in his career.
    Cool; thanks for the clarification.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #13
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    20,778

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    I know we all like to laugh about "best shape of my life" type comments, but IMO, I think Homer really did show up last year in the best shape of his life, and now he's carrying that forward.

    It's really exciting to see this guy put things together and recover from being rushed to the majors.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  17. Likes:

    OGB (04-19-2013)

  18. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,874

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I know we all like to laugh about "best shape of my life" type comments, but IMO, I think Homer really did show up last year in the best shape of his life, and now he's carrying that forward.

    It's really exciting to see this guy put things together and recover from being rushed to the majors.
    This is two straight years he can probably say that. Last year he put on like 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason, mostly in the upper body. This past year it was another 15-20.

  19. Likes:

    wlf WV (04-19-2013)

  20. #15
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,508

    Re: Homer Bailey: 2012 vs 2013

    Someone, and I wish I could find the article now, posted during late spring training that Homer Bailey was among the top 5 starters who had higher velocity in spring than they had in 2012 and that in the past, that had been a good sign for performance.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/sta...ocity-surgers/


    Homer Bailey:

    2013 vFA, vFT: 93.5, 93.1
    2012 vFA, vFT: 92.4, 92.4

    Last year, Bailey finally had that long awaited breakout, though by SIERA, he had been pitching at this level for several seasons. In his first start, his velocity jumped and he hasn’t averaged above 93.0 mph since 2009, when he sat above 94.0. If that increased velocity sticks and he could avoid some of the bad fortune that has inflated his ERA in seasons prior to 2012, he may actually be even better this year.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25