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Thread: VottOBP

  1. #61
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    I think I've already backed that up with why I think it's exaggerated, but here it is anyway. People see the best player walking a ton and assume it's because he's getting pitched around without any consideration that maybe it's just as much a result of any number of factors that can lead to walks besides seeing fewer strikes. He saw 41% strikes each of the last 3 years. This year he's seeing 40% according to fangraphs. It's a very small difference. The huge difference from last year to this year is that he's seeing more pitches (more walks) by swinging at fewer strikes and putting the ball in play less. I'm not arguing that's better or worse, only that it is what's happening.

    I watch every game too and I do understand the walking makes it seem like he's being pitched differently. The reality is, I think his approach has changed to being pitched the same way and is making his ABs look completely different.

    ETA:I really shouldn't be saying last year vs this year, this started last year, so you see an even more dramatic trend 2011-->2012-->2013
    He's been pitched around since 2010 would be my position, so your data reflects that they are pitching around him consistently.
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    He's been pitched around since 2010 would be my position, so your data reflects that they are pitching around him consistently.
    Cool, we're on the same page.

  4. #63
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You're not going out on much of a limb when you say you prefer a .975 OPS to a .900 OPS.
    Well, when you figure OBP is worth nearly twice as much as SLG, it's not quite that clear cut.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #64
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    Cool, we're on the same page.
    Well, not really, since you claim the pitching around is exaggerated. Unless you are saying it is consistent, and others say it isn't? But who has been saying that?
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  6. #65
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Time to give this the full RMR treatment. My apologies in advance.

    First, some opportunity data:
    Code:
    		2011	2012	2013	Career
    Zone%		44.9%	45.3%	41.5%	45.2%
    Votto is getting fewer pitches to hit in 2013.

    Now, some approach data:
    Code:
    			2011	2012	2013	Career
    1st Pitch in Play	12%	 7%	11%	12%
    Gone 1-0		46% 	45%	56%	44%
    Gone 0-1		42%	47%	32%	44%
    Votto is getting ahead 1-0 much more frequently this year. Given that he continues to put the first pitch in play at his career rate, it does not appear that he's being particularly selective early in the count. Rather, it seems likely that he's seeing much less to hit on the first pitch than in prior years AND being more selective about what he goes after.


    And later in the count:
    Code:
    			2011	2012	2013	Career
    Gotten 2 strikes	48%	51%	51%	49%
    Gotten 3 balls		30%	36%	41%	28%
    While Votto is finding himself in two strike counts at the same rate he has historically. He finds himself in 3 ball counts much more frequently. This is probably in part due to his getting ahead more frequently and supported by his skill in keeping at bats alive with two strikes.

    So what's he doing in those circumstances?
    Code:
    	   	   2011	 	   2012		   2013		   Career
    		AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG
    W/ 2 Strikes	199/304/350	256/394/390	161/333/226	220/320/356
    W/ 3 Balls	250/637/596	372/715/628	286/839/571	303/664/575
    In all those extra 3 ball counts, he's walking more often than ever. But in those two strike counts, he's not getting hits he used to.

    But what about his general ball in play profile?

    Code:
    	2011	2012	2013	Career
    LD%	28%	30%	28%	25%	
    GB%	39%	38%	56%	41%	
    FB%	33%	32%	17%	34%
    GB/FB	1.2	1.2	3.3	1.2

    Uh oh? Votto is hitting A TON of grounders. Like, a ridiculous amount. This is almost assuredly not sustainable. These numbers are not yet statistically meaningful -- they don't cross the sample size threshold until 200-250 PA. He's 1/3 of the way there. This is most likely just randomness.

    I would note: his lack of power last Aug/Sept was driven by a lack of HR/FB, not a spike in GB%.

    So, in sum:
    • Votto is extremely selective and more so this year than ever (paritcularly in terms of not chasing balls)
    • Pitchers are giving him less to hit than they used to
    • This is resulting in them falling behind in the count
    • And when behind the count, they are even less likely to give him something to hit, leading to more walks
    • When he does make contact, he's putting the ball on the ground at a crazy rate, limiting his slugging


    My conclusion: Chill out. Yes, he's getting pitched around a bit and he's being extra patient, leading to a crazy number of walks. But the lack of the power is not likely related to those things. Rather, it's being driven by a funky amount of ground balls in a very small sample that is unlikely to continue.

    However, I will allow for the possibility that he's swinging with less authority or in a different way and taking more pitches due to a concern about his knee. But I don't think it's a permanent problem and fully expect him to regress back to "normal" soon.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 01:53 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Well, not really, since you claim the pitching around is exaggerated. Unless you are saying it is consistent, and others say it isn't? But who has been saying that?
    The last thread on this topic was titled "they won't pitch to Joey Votto anymore". That, combined with this thread, led me to believe some people think a big shift in how he is pitched is leading to all these walks.

    If I'm arguing against something nobody actually believes, than ignore me.

  9. #67
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Bottom line - if this 16 game stretch happened in August, we wouldn't even mention it. But we keep looking at those season to date numbers and over analyzing them like we do at the beginning of every season. It happens, and I fall guilty of it too. A 162 game season has a ton of randomness throughout it. This is not that far from usual.

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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Well, when you figure OBP is worth nearly twice as much as SLG, it's not quite that clear cut.
    Even when you multiply OBA by 1.7 it's still quite a bit higher.

  12. #69
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Even when you multiply OBA by 1.7 it's still quite a bit higher.
    Well, maybe I was stating the obvious somewhat. But I did want to explicitly make the point that even those of us who absolutely love what he's doing right now recognize that he would be more valuable trading walks for power -- assuming each come in right ratio.

    Seems like most people on the thread are in pretty broad agreement.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #70
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Well, maybe I was stating the obvious somewhat. But I did want to explicitly make the point that even those of us who absolutely love what he's doing right now recognize that he would be more valuable trading walks for power -- assuming each come in right ratio.

    Seems like most people on the thread are in pretty broad agreement.
    Of course that's true, but I would consider it in the category of "can he do anything about it?" I don't think so in this microscopic look at his season at the 10% point, and obviously he can't say "I think I'm going to get a double here rather than take a walk."
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by faffy42 View Post
    Joey has seen plenty of first pitch strikes right down the middle that he's not pulling the trigger on for some reason. So if he was ready to hit and wanted to get some hits...the first pitch has been there for him quite often.
    He's never been one to hit the first pitch he sees, though. He likes to take a few pitches and always has. I don't know if I've ever seen a batter more comfortable at the plate with a two strike count than Votto.

    That said, I agree that he's letting some pretty fat looking pitches go by without even a half-swing. If he were to start pulling the trigger a little more often, he'd already have a few more home runs, imho.

    That said (part deux): He's earned the right to decide when and where to swing.
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  16. #72
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Well, when you figure OBP is worth nearly twice as much as SLG, it's not quite that clear cut.
    OBP correlates to run scoring more than slugging does. So you're still not making a very strong argument otherwise
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  17. #73
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    I think if he tries a little harder he can get his OBP to .600.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  19. #74
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I think if he tries a little harder he can get his OBP to .600.
    I want to see the first ever 1.000 OPS with a .600 OBP/.400 SLG split.
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  21. #75
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    Re: VottOBP

    Votto's Isolated Power will not be .120 at the seasons end

    Here are the top OB% by players with at least 100 trips to the plate

    Code:
    SEASON
    SLG displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    OBA                           YEAR     OBA      SLG      PA     
    1    Barry Bonds              2004     .609     .812      617   
    2    Barry Bonds              2002     .582     .799      612   
    3    Ted Williams             1941     .553     .735      604   
    4    John McGraw              1899     .547     .446      539   
    5    Babe Ruth                1923     .545     .764      699   
    6    Babe Ruth                1920     .532     .847      616   
    7    Barry Bonds              2003     .529     .749      550   
    8    Ted Williams             1957     .526     .731      546   
    9    Billy Hamilton           1894     .523     .528      686   
    10   Babe Ruth                1926     .516     .737      652   
    11   Barry Bonds              2001     .515     .863      664   
    12   Ted Williams             1954     .513     .635      526   
    13   Babe Ruth                1924     .513     .739      681   
    14   Babe Ruth                1921     .512     .846      693   
    15   Mickey Mantle            1957     .512     .665      623   
    16   Ted Williams             1953     .509     .901      110   
    17   John McGraw              1901     .508     .487      308   
    18   Rogers Hornsby           1924     .507     .696      640   
    19   John McGraw              1900     .505     .416      447   
    20   Ray Blades               1930     .504     .614      127   
    21   Joe Kelley               1894     .502     .602      638   
    22   Hugh Duffy               1894     .502     .694      616   
    23   Ed Delahanty             1895     .500     .617      578


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