Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Time to give this the full RMR treatment. My apologies in advance.
First, some opportunity data:
Votto is getting fewer pitches to hit in 2013.Code:2011 2012 2013 Career Zone% 44.9% 45.3% 41.5% 45.2%
Now, some approach data:
Votto is getting ahead 1-0 much more frequently this year. Given that he continues to put the first pitch in play at his career rate, it does not appear that he's being particularly selective early in the count. Rather, it seems likely that he's seeing much less to hit on the first pitch than in prior years AND being more selective about what he goes after.Code:2011 2012 2013 Career 1st Pitch in Play 12% 7% 11% 12% Gone 1-0 46% 45% 56% 44% Gone 0-1 42% 47% 32% 44%
And later in the count:
While Votto is finding himself in two strike counts at the same rate he has historically. He finds himself in 3 ball counts much more frequently. This is probably in part due to his getting ahead more frequently and supported by his skill in keeping at bats alive with two strikes.Code:2011 2012 2013 Career Gotten 2 strikes 48% 51% 51% 49% Gotten 3 balls 30% 36% 41% 28%
So what's he doing in those circumstances?
In all those extra 3 ball counts, he's walking more often than ever. But in those two strike counts, he's not getting hits he used to.Code:2011 2012 2013 Career AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG W/ 2 Strikes 199/304/350 256/394/390 161/333/226 220/320/356 W/ 3 Balls 250/637/596 372/715/628 286/839/571 303/664/575
But what about his general ball in play profile?
Code:2011 2012 2013 Career LD% 28% 30% 28% 25% GB% 39% 38% 56% 41% FB% 33% 32% 17% 34% GB/FB 1.2 1.2 3.3 1.2
Uh oh? Votto is hitting A TON of grounders. Like, a ridiculous amount. This is almost assuredly not sustainable. These numbers are not yet statistically meaningful -- they don't cross the sample size threshold until 200-250 PA. He's 1/3 of the way there. This is most likely just randomness.
I would note: his lack of power last Aug/Sept was driven by a lack of HR/FB, not a spike in GB%.
So, in sum:
- Votto is extremely selective and more so this year than ever (paritcularly in terms of not chasing balls)
- Pitchers are giving him less to hit than they used to
- This is resulting in them falling behind in the count
- And when behind the count, they are even less likely to give him something to hit, leading to more walks
- When he does make contact, he's putting the ball on the ground at a crazy rate, limiting his slugging
My conclusion: Chill out. Yes, he's getting pitched around a bit and he's being extra patient, leading to a crazy number of walks. But the lack of the power is not likely related to those things. Rather, it's being driven by a funky amount of ground balls in a very small sample that is unlikely to continue.
However, I will allow for the possibility that he's swinging with less authority or in a different way and taking more pitches due to a concern about his knee. But I don't think it's a permanent problem and fully expect him to regress back to "normal" soon.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 01:53 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Always Red (04-19-2013),ervinsm84 (04-19-2013),HeatherC1212 (04-19-2013),Homer Bailey (04-19-2013),IslandRed (04-19-2013),mth123 (04-20-2013),nate (04-19-2013),Raisor (04-19-2013),RichRed (04-19-2013)
The last thread on this topic was titled "they won't pitch to Joey Votto anymore". That, combined with this thread, led me to believe some people think a big shift in how he is pitched is leading to all these walks.
If I'm arguing against something nobody actually believes, than ignore me.
Bottom line - if this 16 game stretch happened in August, we wouldn't even mention it. But we keep looking at those season to date numbers and over analyzing them like we do at the beginning of every season. It happens, and I fall guilty of it too. A 162 game season has a ton of randomness throughout it. This is not that far from usual.
Well, maybe I was stating the obvious somewhat. But I did want to explicitly make the point that even those of us who absolutely love what he's doing right now recognize that he would be more valuable trading walks for power -- assuming each come in right ratio.
Seems like most people on the thread are in pretty broad agreement.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Raisor (04-19-2013)
He's never been one to hit the first pitch he sees, though. He likes to take a few pitches and always has. I don't know if I've ever seen a batter more comfortable at the plate with a two strike count than Votto.
That said, I agree that he's letting some pretty fat looking pitches go by without even a half-swing. If he were to start pulling the trigger a little more often, he'd already have a few more home runs, imho.
That said (part deux): He's earned the right to decide when and where to swing.
If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I think if he tries a little harder he can get his OBP to .600.
Raisor (04-19-2013)
Votto's Isolated Power will not be .120 at the seasons end
Here are the top OB% by players with at least 100 trips to the plate
Code:SEASON SLG displayed only--not a sorting criteria PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria OBA YEAR OBA SLG PA 1 Barry Bonds 2004 .609 .812 617 2 Barry Bonds 2002 .582 .799 612 3 Ted Williams 1941 .553 .735 604 4 John McGraw 1899 .547 .446 539 5 Babe Ruth 1923 .545 .764 699 6 Babe Ruth 1920 .532 .847 616 7 Barry Bonds 2003 .529 .749 550 8 Ted Williams 1957 .526 .731 546 9 Billy Hamilton 1894 .523 .528 686 10 Babe Ruth 1926 .516 .737 652 11 Barry Bonds 2001 .515 .863 664 12 Ted Williams 1954 .513 .635 526 13 Babe Ruth 1924 .513 .739 681 14 Babe Ruth 1921 .512 .846 693 15 Mickey Mantle 1957 .512 .665 623 16 Ted Williams 1953 .509 .901 110 17 John McGraw 1901 .508 .487 308 18 Rogers Hornsby 1924 .507 .696 640 19 John McGraw 1900 .505 .416 447 20 Ray Blades 1930 .504 .614 127 21 Joe Kelley 1894 .502 .602 638 22 Hugh Duffy 1894 .502 .694 616 23 Ed Delahanty 1895 .500 .617 578
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