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Thread: VottOBP

  1. #76
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Joey is on pace for 506 At Bats (769 Plate Appearances)

    For him to reach a .600 SLG, he needs to average 1.93 total bases per game for the rest of the season.

    If my math is right.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  3. #77
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Joey is on pace for 506 At Bats (769 Plate Appearances)

    For him to reach a .600 SLG, he needs to average 1.93 total bases per game for the rest of the season.

    If my math is right.
    What if he wants to reach .573 SLG?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #78
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What if he wants to reach .573 SLG?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #79
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    If Joey wants to get to a slugging number, Joey will get to it. Bank on it.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  6. #80
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    Re: VottOBP

    If getting on base is wrong, then I don't want to be right!
    "I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking

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  8. #81
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    OBP correlates to run scoring more than slugging does. So you're still not making a very strong argument otherwise
    Here's the data:

    Code:
    	OBP	SLG	wOBA
    2012:	.474	.567	.438
    2013:	.526	.400	.420
    Here's the argument (which I'm fairly sure we all agree on)

    1. Despite having an OBP that is 52 points higher than it was in 2012, Votto is on balance a less productive hitter thus far because his SLG is so much lower (167 points) -- even though OBP is more valuable than SLG on a point-by-point basis, the magnitude of Votto's differences in each results in a net loss of productivity.

    2. Regardless of the fact that the 2013 version of Votto is less productive than the 2012 version, he'still being very, very productive (currently the 11th best wOBA in the NL).

    3. While Votto may be tweaking his approach a little bit, the current 2013 version of Joey Votto is probably due mostly chance/small samples than some fundamental, permanent shift in his talent/approach.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 07:33 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #82
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    More on the offense:

    Batting Order
    1. On pace to score 131 Runs
    2. On pace to score 141 Runs
    3. On pace to score 111 Runs

    I dunno, looks pretty good
    Someone just needs to tell Frazier that he has to hit 50 HRs, Cozart 40 and BP 40 and we'll be all set.

  10. #83
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Bottom line - if this 16 game stretch happened in August, we wouldn't even mention it. But we keep looking at those season to date numbers and over analyzing them like we do at the beginning of every season. It happens, and I fall guilty of it too. A 162 game season has a ton of randomness throughout it. This is not that far from usual.
    I think the issue is that his SLG was .402 with zero HRs in the 2nd half last year also. This has a little more meaning than a random 16 game stretch.

  11. #84
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I think the issue is that his SLG was .402 with zero HRs in the 2nd half last year also. This has a little more meaning than a random 16 game stretch.
    And here I thought that was because he was recovering from a serious injury.

  12. #85
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    And here I thought that was because he was recovering from a serious injury.
    Hence the concern.

  13. #86
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I think the issue is that his SLG was .402 with zero HRs in the 2nd half last year also. This has a little more meaning than a random 16 game stretch.
    Here's what gets me. While the walk increase and power decrease are the same, the driver of the SLG dip comes from two very different places:

    Code:
    	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	LD%	GB/FB	HR/FB
    1H'12	.348	.471	.617	18.2%	17.9%	.408	.268	30.7%	1.14	19.2%
    Sep12	.316	.505	.421	26.7%	17.8%	.429	.103	30.4%	1.17	 0.0%
    Apr13	.280	.526	.400	31.6%	18.4%	.371	.120	27.8%	3.33	16.7%
    Last fall his walks ticked up and he couldn't buy a homer despite otherwise being pretty much the same guy. This year, the walks have ticked up even further and he simply hasn't been putting the ball in the air.

    If we're to assume that there's a real issue driving these results and not just randomness, I'd love to understand why this year's "problem" is manifesting itself differently than it did last September. What's he physically doing different. Because it's not just taking more pitches; it's a very different batted ball profile.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #87
    Member RedLegsToday's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    He's not getting much too hit, and his timing is a little off. I'm thinking he'll be fine. Heck, Paul Maholm has pitched 3 starts to a tune of a 0.00 era. Does anyone think that will continue? Well, neither will Votto hitting a ton of grounders.

  15. #88
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    This is the worst I've ever seen Votto.

    He's fouling everything off to the left, and when he does hit it between the lines it's usually pulled on the ground to the 2B.

    We've seen several of the sorriest looking "swings" from him lately where he looks like he was guessing wrong.

    If pitchers actually start pitching to him....and not just walking him 40% of the time.....I'm actually worried what that will look like.

  16. #89
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Time to give this the full RMR treatment. My apologies in advance.

    First, some opportunity data:
    Code:
    		2011	2012	2013	Career
    Zone%		44.9%	45.3%	41.5%	45.2%
    Votto is getting fewer pitches to hit in 2013.

    Now, some approach data:
    Code:
    			2011	2012	2013	Career
    1st Pitch in Play	12%	 7%	11%	12%
    Gone 1-0		46% 	45%	56%	44%
    Gone 0-1		42%	47%	32%	44%
    Votto is getting ahead 1-0 much more frequently this year. Given that he continues to put the first pitch in play at his career rate, it does not appear that he's being particularly selective early in the count. Rather, it seems likely that he's seeing much less to hit on the first pitch than in prior years AND being more selective about what he goes after.


    And later in the count:
    Code:
    			2011	2012	2013	Career
    Gotten 2 strikes	48%	51%	51%	49%
    Gotten 3 balls		30%	36%	41%	28%
    While Votto is finding himself in two strike counts at the same rate he has historically. He finds himself in 3 ball counts much more frequently. This is probably in part due to his getting ahead more frequently and supported by his skill in keeping at bats alive with two strikes.

    So what's he doing in those circumstances?
    Code:
    	   	   2011	 	   2012		   2013		   Career
    		AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG
    W/ 2 Strikes	199/304/350	256/394/390	161/333/226	220/320/356
    W/ 3 Balls	250/637/596	372/715/628	286/839/571	303/664/575
    In all those extra 3 ball counts, he's walking more often than ever. But in those two strike counts, he's not getting hits he used to.

    But what about his general ball in play profile?

    Code:
    	2011	2012	2013	Career
    LD%	28%	30%	28%	25%	
    GB%	39%	38%	56%	41%	
    FB%	33%	32%	17%	34%
    GB/FB	1.2	1.2	3.3	1.2

    Uh oh? Votto is hitting A TON of grounders. Like, a ridiculous amount. This is almost assuredly not sustainable. These numbers are not yet statistically meaningful -- they don't cross the sample size threshold until 200-250 PA. He's 1/3 of the way there. This is most likely just randomness.

    I would note: his lack of power last Aug/Sept was driven by a lack of HR/FB, not a spike in GB%.

    So, in sum:
    • Votto is extremely selective and more so this year than ever (paritcularly in terms of not chasing balls)
    • Pitchers are giving him less to hit than they used to
    • This is resulting in them falling behind in the count
    • And when behind the count, they are even less likely to give him something to hit, leading to more walks
    • When he does make contact, he's putting the ball on the ground at a crazy rate, limiting his slugging


    My conclusion: Chill out. Yes, he's getting pitched around a bit and he's being extra patient, leading to a crazy number of walks. But the lack of the power is not likely related to those things. Rather, it's being driven by a funky amount of ground balls in a very small sample that is unlikely to continue.

    However, I will allow for the possibility that he's swinging with less authority or in a different way and taking more pitches due to a concern about his knee. But I don't think it's a permanent problem and fully expect him to regress back to "normal" soon.
    Awesome post.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #90
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: VottOBP

    Joey Votto has always had those really ugly swings where he clearly just guessed wrong and threw the bat in some attempt to make contact. This isn't something new this year.

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