Joey is on pace for 506 At Bats (769 Plate Appearances)
For him to reach a .600 SLG, he needs to average 1.93 total bases per game for the rest of the season.
If my math is right.
Joey is on pace for 506 At Bats (769 Plate Appearances)
For him to reach a .600 SLG, he needs to average 1.93 total bases per game for the rest of the season.
If my math is right.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
If Joey wants to get to a slugging number, Joey will get to it. Bank on it.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
If getting on base is wrong, then I don't want to be right!
"I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking
Here's the data:
Here's the argument (which I'm fairly sure we all agree on)Code:OBP SLG wOBA 2012: .474 .567 .438 2013: .526 .400 .420
1. Despite having an OBP that is 52 points higher than it was in 2012, Votto is on balance a less productive hitter thus far because his SLG is so much lower (167 points) -- even though OBP is more valuable than SLG on a point-by-point basis, the magnitude of Votto's differences in each results in a net loss of productivity.
2. Regardless of the fact that the 2013 version of Votto is less productive than the 2012 version, he'still being very, very productive (currently the 11th best wOBA in the NL).
3. While Votto may be tweaking his approach a little bit, the current 2013 version of Joey Votto is probably due mostly chance/small samples than some fundamental, permanent shift in his talent/approach.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 06:33 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Here's what gets me. While the walk increase and power decrease are the same, the driver of the SLG dip comes from two very different places:
Last fall his walks ticked up and he couldn't buy a homer despite otherwise being pretty much the same guy. This year, the walks have ticked up even further and he simply hasn't been putting the ball in the air.Code:AVG OBP SLG BB% K% BABIP ISO LD% GB/FB HR/FB 1H'12 .348 .471 .617 18.2% 17.9% .408 .268 30.7% 1.14 19.2% Sep12 .316 .505 .421 26.7% 17.8% .429 .103 30.4% 1.17 0.0% Apr13 .280 .526 .400 31.6% 18.4% .371 .120 27.8% 3.33 16.7%
If we're to assume that there's a real issue driving these results and not just randomness, I'd love to understand why this year's "problem" is manifesting itself differently than it did last September. What's he physically doing different. Because it's not just taking more pitches; it's a very different batted ball profile.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
He's not getting much too hit, and his timing is a little off. I'm thinking he'll be fine. Heck, Paul Maholm has pitched 3 starts to a tune of a 0.00 era. Does anyone think that will continue? Well, neither will Votto hitting a ton of grounders.
This is the worst I've ever seen Votto.
He's fouling everything off to the left, and when he does hit it between the lines it's usually pulled on the ground to the 2B.
We've seen several of the sorriest looking "swings" from him lately where he looks like he was guessing wrong.
If pitchers actually start pitching to him....and not just walking him 40% of the time.....I'm actually worried what that will look like.
Joey Votto has always had those really ugly swings where he clearly just guessed wrong and threw the bat in some attempt to make contact. This isn't something new this year.
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