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Thread: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

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    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    I know he's on the wrong side of 30, but I'm convinced he's a late bloomer whose development was blocked by the Rays' incredibly deep system.

    In 2012, only 20 players in all of MLB with more than 300 plate appearances had a better Rc/27.

    He's clearly comfortable hitting at GAB.

    He could play CF and would allow Choo to shift over to LF. When Ludwick comes back he gives us depth. He'll push Ludwick and allow Choo or Bruce to take nights off against lefties without the team missing a beat.

    By the time the Marlins are any good, he'll be closer to 40 than 30. Seems like a trade candidate to me.

    So do you want him, and how much would you pay to get him?
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    I like him. He's a guy I think most teams wouldn't mind having on the roster, but probably wouldn't expend a lot of resources to acquire. I wouldn't deal any top line prospects (Hamilton, Cingrani, Stephenson, Corcino, Travieso). If he could be had for some one like Guillon or Rogers, sure. Maybe a package of one of them with a Neftali Soto or one of the fringe relievers like Ondrusek or Simon.

    Last year was a bit of a career year, otherwise, he seems pretty similar to Chris Heisey. Not sure there would be room on the roster for both of them.
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    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I like him. He's a guy I think most teams wouldn't mind having on the roster, but probably wouldn't expend a lot of resources to acquire. I wouldn't deal any top line prospects (Hamilton, Cingrani, Stephenson, Corcino, Travieso). If he could be had for some one like Guillon or Rogers, sure. Maybe a package of one of them with a Neftali Soto or one of the fringe relievers like Ondrusek or Simon.

    Last year was a bit of a career year, otherwise, he seems pretty similar to Chris Heisey. Not sure there would be room on the roster for both of them.
    Yeah, I was sort of thinking Heisey and a 2nd tier prospect.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    He's 31 and I'm thinking his 2012 season might have quite a bit to do with his .401 BABIP.

    Pass.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Ruggiano would be a nice addition. He hits LHPs, which is something the Reds need in the OF at the moment. Pair him with Will Venable and the OF situation would be pretty well sorted.
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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Career vs. RHP

    Heisey (.770 OPS), 29 years old
    Ruggiano (.756 OPS), 31 years old

    Ruggiano's OPS is largely colored by that .401 BABIP last season.

    I sense people are just grasping at straws right now. Now, I will say, Ruggiano does clearly hit the ball better against left-handed pitching than does Heisey. But overall, he's not really any better an option.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Career vs. RHP

    Heisey (.770 OPS), 29 years old
    Ruggiano (.756 OPS), 31 years old

    Ruggiano's OPS is largely colored by that .401 BABIP last season.

    I sense people are just grasping at straws right now. Now, I will say, Ruggiano does clearly hit the ball better against left-handed pitching than does Heisey. But overall, he's not really any better an option.
    I don't think these lifetime averages mean anything. They predict nothing. These players have very limited playing time, wide variations in performance. Averaging these stats together do nothing for me.

    Simply compare Heisey's 2011 and 2012. Like two different players. Is he a 112 OPS+ player as in 2011 or an 88 OPS+ player as in 2012? Which one is he? Whatever your opinion is, I don't see how averaging the two years tells you anything.

    IMO, Heisey does not have the higher OBP, higher contact, more patient approach the Reds are looking for. I don't know if Ruggiano would either, but I'm ready to try somebody else in Heisey's role.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-20-2013 at 07:54 PM.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't think these lifetime averages mean anything. They predict nothing. These players have very limited playing time, wide variations in performance. Averaging these stats together do nothing for me.

    Simply compare Heisey's 2011 and 2012. Like two different players. Is he a 112 OPS+ player as in 2011 or an 88 OPS+ player as in 2012? Which one is he? Whatever your opinion is, I don't see how averaging the two years tells you anything.

    IMO, Heisey does not have the higher OBP, higher contact, more patient approach the Reds are looking for. I don't know if Ruggiano would either, but I'm ready to try somebody else in Heisey's role.
    He has nearly 1,000 plate appearances now. Even if each individual season is too smallish to take too literally, the overall big picture of his entire career should do a pretty good job of telling you what Heisey is. His career says he's about a .735 hitter. That seems pretty reasonable at this point.

    Do I think he's either an 88 or a 112? No. I think he's closer to what his career average says... just a nick below average.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    He has nearly 1,000 plate appearances now. Even if each individual season is too smallish to take too literally, the overall big picture of his entire career should do a pretty good job of telling you what Heisey is. His career says he's about a .735 hitter. That seems pretty reasonable at this point.

    Do I think he's either an 88 or a 112? No. I think he's closer to what his career average says... just a nick below average.
    But the Heisey you see is a mathematical average, not a baseball player. Chris doesn't perform on the field like the mathematical average you calculate. He never has.

    Heisey in 2010 and 2011 was a power hitter who feasted on righties as a part time player. Couldn't hit lefties.

    Heisey in 2012 was a weak hitter with 7 homers who had a .680 OPS against righties, hit lefties much better, and had his most PAs, 375.

    This year he is off to a terrible start, and he hasn't hit righties at all and lefties only a little better. Total of 18 Ks and 2 BBs.

    Large fluctuations in overall stats and splits from year to year. No consistency. And a trend line which is heading lower in most important categories.

    That's the Heisey I see. Not the mathematical average you calculate.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2013 at 01:25 AM.

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But the Heisey you see is a mathematical average, not a baseball player. Chris doesn't perform on the field like the mathematical average you calculate. He never has.

    Heisey in 2010 and 2011 was a power hitter who feasted on righties as a part time player. Couldn't hit lefties.

    Heisey in 2012 was a weak hitter with 7 homers who had a .680 OPS against righties, hit lefties much better, and had his most PAs, 375.

    This year he is off to a terrible start, and he hasn't hit righties at all and lefties only a little better. Total of 18 Ks and 2 BBs.

    Large fluctuations in overall stats and splits from year to year. No consistency. And a trend line which is heading lower in most important categories.

    That's the Heisey I see. Not the mathematical average you calculate.
    Except those 1,000 plate appearances on the field that says he's a .735 OPS hitter.

    If someone hits 30 homers, those homers are hit. You can't act like they weren't. If someone strikes out 200 times, those strikeouts count. If someone steals 50 bases, those bases are stolen.

    Similarly, Heisey has a .735 OPS. Heisey has created about 112 runs in his career. Those count. And on a per-plate appearance basis, that's just a hair below average.

    Those runs he's created count, no matter how much you try to act as if they don't. Call it mathematical. Call it theoretical. Call it whatever you like. But production is production no matter how you slice it. And a .735 OPS is almost roughly league average.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Except those 1,000 plate appearances on the field that says he's a .735 OPS hitter.

    If someone hits 30 homers, those homers are hit. You can't act like they weren't. If someone strikes out 200 times, those strikeouts count. If someone steals 50 bases, those bases are stolen.

    Similarly, Heisey has a .735 OPS. Heisey has created about 112 runs in his career. Those count. And on a per-plate appearance basis, that's just a hair below average.

    Those runs he's created count, no matter how much you try to act as if they don't. Call it mathematical. Call it theoretical. Call it whatever you like. But production is production no matter how you slice it. And a .735 OPS is almost roughly league average.
    So do you think that production is predictive of what Heisey could do as an every day player?

    A lot of that was from the team protecting him by leaving him on the bench when a pitcher who would obviously carve him up was out there.

    Heisey is a nice 300 PA per year bench player who can play all three spots and run well. He's a good pinch hitter and a nice guy to have late in the game when a double switch makes sense. He's simply not a guy I'd want in there every day. A starting OF is out for an extended period and Heisey is playing more than he ideally should. The fact that he's a lesser option isn't a surprise. Its why he's not a starter in the first place.

    The Reds need to mix and match until Ludwick returns. Maybe Billy Hamilton will force the issue down the road and push Choo to LF and solve the problem. I'm thinking the Reds simply don't have an ideal every day player to run out there, but its not a fatal blow and not worth thinning the pitching depth to address. There won't be many deals avaailable until about the time Ludwick should be coming back. I'd love to add a Seth Smith or a David Dejesus to the picture (or Wil Venable as I've touted for a couple years and as M2 has been suggesting), but I don't see a deal being on the table any time soon. If one was, I wouldn't deal anything major to pursue it. The Reds need the guys they have. Perhaps one of the fringe relievers (Simon, Ondrusek) and second tier kids (Lamarre, Soto, Guillon) could net a guy like Dejesus who is in the last year of his deal and will probably be blocking a more long term option at some point. By then, the Reds may have their own long term option ready to go or Ludwick may be back. We're going to need to live with bench players doing the job for a while. It's not the end of the world.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    Reds management has done an outstanding job. That can't be debated.

    If someone did want to debate it, the one thing debatable is left field. They have failed for years to solidify that position including the cleanup hitter. As well as BP is doing as the cleanup hitter.......he isn't a prototypical cleanup hitter.

    Protecting Votto has been issue since he emerged. And they decided to pay him, but also have decided not to pay someone to protect him.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    The season is 3 weeks old. And RedsZone wants the Reds to trade for how many players?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

    One element of certainty, Heisey is not an everyday player. He can't hit a slider or breaking ball away. Until he adjusts, he's a bench player.


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