"Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

[RedEye]

I suspect Cameron is preaching to the choir around here about this, but I thought this was a nice piece. An excerpt:

Kudos to Brandon Phillips for his excellent start to the season. Kudos to Brandon Phillips for hitting better in more important situations, and helping his team lead the league in runs scored. He’s been terrific. There is nothing wrong with lauding Phillips for his 2013 performance.

But let’s not pretend that Phillips is not standing on the shoulders of giants. Brandon Phillips, RBI Machine only exists because of how good Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto have been at getting on base.

[RadfordVA]

Technically Baker's quote is correct. RBIs are better than OBP. They can't happen without the OBP and are not predictive of the future but on that day that is what counts, scoring runs. Given the choice of one RBI or being on base once everyone will take the RBI because it ensures you scored at least one run.

It's like saying the most important key to a game is scoring more runs than other team. Well yeah obviously but you need to figure out a way to get to that point.

[Vottomatic]

You can't discard the fact that last year's leadoff hitters on the Reds get on base 25% of the time and this year's leadoff hitter, Choo, is getting on base over 50% of the time.

Probably the #1 reason this team leads MLB in runs scored.

[REDREAD]

“On-base percentage is good. But RBIs are better,” (Dusty) Baker said.

I knew Dusty would be ripped for this (not by you, but by the author)
In my opinion, I don't think Dusty is saying OBP is bad or overrated.
I think Dusty is saying that OBP is only part of the equation.
Once a guy gets on base, he needs to get into scoring position.
Then someone needs to drive him in.
In other words, there's 3 parts to the equation.
OBP has been glorified, for good reason, but Dusty's right.. if you leave the runner stranded, all the OBP in the world isn't going to help.

Honestly, Phillips, Votto and Choo are having amazing years so far.
Other guys are contributing too, but these three guys are really carrying the team.

The author says that Phillips rate of driving in runs is "very good" but "not particularly special" Which one is it? Not very good writing, IMO.
If Phillips was driving in runs at the league average rate, then it would not be special, but he's well above the pace so far. Just because the writer can find 4 other guys with a higher rate does not diminish what Phillips has done so far.
Phillips has come up huge since Ludwick has been hurt.

No offense, but articles like this aren't particularly helpful in promoting how important OBP is. The writer appears to have an agenda to mock RBIs, and diminish Phillips' contribution. Phillips is just as responsible for those runs scoring as Votto and Choo are.

[RedsManRick]

Technically Baker's quote is correct. RBIs are better than OBP. They can't happen without the OBP and are not predictive of the future but on that day that is what counts, scoring runs. Given the choice of one RBI or being on base once everyone will take the RBI because it ensures you scored at least one run.

It's like saying the most important key to a game is scoring more runs than other team. Well yeah obviously but you need to figure out a way to get to that point.

Exactly. The problem with "RBI" is a stat is that is that the batter who gets credit for it is only responsible for the BI part. And when we look at the availability of the skills that lead to the "R" vs. those that lead to the "BI", the "R" is the harder of the two.

It's statements like this that drive me nuts when people hate on advanced stats, as if it was only people using new stats that needed to get their heads out of the stat book and watch an actual game. I understand the instinct to give credit to the guy hitting when the run scores, but it's so simplistic and myopic. I would hope a manager has a bit more thorough an understanding.

[Raisor]

I knew Dusty would be ripped for this (not by you, but by the author)
In my opinion, I don't think Dusty is saying OBP is bad or overrated.
.

It's the classic Dusty to Redread translation.

[RedEye]

The author says that Phillips rate of driving in runs is "very good" but "not particularly special" Which one is it? Not very good writing, IMO.

I see nothing wrong with his claim. "Very good" is not "special." He pretty clearly defines that when he talks about % of driving runs in earlier in the article. Note, too, that Cameron goes out of his way to give kudos to BP.

Here's the pertinent excerpt:

But, you know, 23% isn’t exactly special. John Buck has driven in 33.3% of the runners he’s inherited, the MLB leader for players with at least 50 plate appearances. Matt Holliday is second at 31.4%, and Marlon Byrd is third at 31.0%. At 23.1%, Brandon Phillips is currently tied with Nelson Cruz for 30th in run production efficiency. Among the players driving in a greater percentage of their baserunners than Phillips are proven sluggers like Chris Denorfia, Starling Marte, and Franklin Gutierrez.

[Crumbley]

Phillips said this himself on FSO after a game the other night.

[Raisor]

RBI are a byproduct of OBP.

Its impossible to score a run without touching first first.

[Bob Sheed]

RBI's are a great stat for tracking results.

OBP is great for determining individual performance quality.

I would use OBP as a factor in determining quality of player. But to discount a player's ability because of the number of RBI's or lackthereof... who still does that?

Bat Phillips in the 8 hole, watch his RBIs go down, then say he is slumping. Right, Dusty?

[REDREAD]

It's the classic Dusty to Redread translation.

Yep, because I need to translate "OBP is good" for people like Cameron, who apparently are offended by it or misunderstand it.
Some people just want to believe Dusty is an idiot.

[REDREAD]

Here's the pertinent excerpt:


Quote:
But, you know, 23% isn’t exactly special. John Buck has driven in 33.3% of the runners he’s inherited, the MLB leader for players with at least 50 plate appearances. Matt Holliday is second at 31.4%, and Marlon Byrd is third at 31.0%. At 23.1%, Brandon Phillips is currently tied with Nelson Cruz for 30th in run production efficiency. Among the players driving in a greater percentage of their baserunners than Phillips are proven sluggers like Chris Denorfia, Starling Marte, and Franklin Gutierrez.

Seems like an entire paragraph belittling the hot start Phillips is off to.
Especially the sarcastic remark about "proven sluggers" like Deno, Marte, etc
Yes, it's early in the season, small sample size.. we get it..

Look, no one expects Phillips to sustain this pace over the entire season, but there's no need to belittle Phillips in order to glorify the OBP monsters Votto/Choo.
Choo and Votto aren't going to have a .500 + OBP the entire year either.
Why is it so hard for him to say that Choo, Votto AND Phillips are the reason why the offense is off to such a great start?

[RedEye]

Why is it so hard for him to say that Choo, Votto AND Phillips are the reason why the offense is off to such a great start?

Funny, I thought that's exactly what he said. He also said that Votto and Choo are more of a reason. We should praise Phillips, but praise the other two more. They are a bigger reason.

[REDREAD]

Funny, I thought that's exactly what he said. He also said that Votto and Choo are more of a reason. We should praise Phillips, but praise the other two more. They are a bigger reason.

This is actually why Dusty says things the reason he does.
No offense to anyone.. but we all agree that runners need to get on base and then someone has to drive them in.

There seems to be a school of thought that OBP is a skill and driving in runs is not really a skill. That's why Cameron sarcastically says that Philliips isn't doing as good as the "sluggers" such as Deno.

Dusty and I are not disagreeing that OBP is a skill and that it's important.
Dusty said it was good.. Which is better than saying "not particularly special".
Dusty seems to put greater importance on driving the run in. He kind of has a point.
Personally, I think it's closer to 50/50. Other people think the guy getting on base deserves more credit for the run scoring than the guy driving in the run. That's fine as an opinion, but it continually gets presented as fact. If Cameron wants to give Choo or Votto 51-99% of the credit for scoring the run (as opposed to 50/50), he's free to express his opinion.. Just like I'm free to say that his article was weak, and he's wrong to belittle Phillips.

IMO, this type of article (with its sarcasm and condescending tone) is exactly why some people hate statistical articles.

If someone wrote an article saying that Choo's OBP is a mirage because it's inflated by 10 hit by pitch, and his career OBP is only 386, and then made a sarcastic comparison to 3 journeymen with a high OBP in small sample sizes, I would say that article is lame too.

[Chip R]

This is actually why Dusty says things the reason he does.
No offense to anyone.. but we all agree that runners need to get on base and then someone has to drive them in.

Not necessarily. If they get to 3rd they could get walked home on a bases loaded walk or they could steal home or advance on a passed ball, wild pitch, balk or HBP.