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Thread: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

  1. #16
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Not necessarily. If they get to 3rd they could get walked home on a bases loaded walk or they could steal home or advance on a passed ball, wild pitch, balk or HBP.
    Well, it's interesting in assigning credit for the run. Assume Votto scores in all these scenerios

    Scenerio 1: Votto doubles. Phillips doubles. I would give them 50/50 credit.

    Scenerio 2: Votto triples. Phillips SF. I would give Votto more than 50% credit.

    Scenerio 3: Votto singles. Phillips triples. I would give Phillips more than 50% credit.

    There's all kinds of gray areas in between.. but in general, I think the credit should average out to about 50/50 between the table setter and the RBI guy. I know a lot of over people disagree.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  3. #17
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    RBI are a byproduct of OBP.

    Its impossible to score a run without touching first first.
    Correct, but IIRC, didn't Marvelous Marv Thornberry try to do this very thing?

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post

    If someone wrote an article saying that Choo's OBP is a mirage because it's inflated by 10 hit by pitch, and his career OBP is only 386, and then made a sarcastic comparison to 3 journeymen with a high OBP in small sample sizes, I would say that article is lame too.
    I would say that is is probably an accurate article. Because it would be. Choo isn't a .500 OBP guy. The HBP are inflating things and he isn't likely to finish the year with 70 HBP's.

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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    There seems to be a school of thought that OBP is a skill and driving in runs is not really a skill.
    I think you are misunderstanding the argument, which is that OBP is an individual skill while RBI is a team-dependent statistic.

    That's why Cameron sarcastically says that Philliips isn't doing as good as the "sluggers" such as Deno.
    I don't think sarcasm here is meant to belittle Phillips. He goes out of his way to praise BP's performance. He's just putting the accomplishments in perspective.

    Personally, I think it's closer to 50/50. Other people think the guy getting on base deserves more credit for the run scoring than the guy driving in the run. That's fine as an opinion, but it continually gets presented as fact. If Cameron wants to give Choo or Votto 51-99% of the credit for scoring the run (as opposed to 50/50), he's free to express his opinion.. Just like I'm free to say that his article was weak, and he's wrong to belittle Phillips.
    Again, I think you are misunderstanding. The main reason that people favor OBP over RBI as a stat is because it connects better with the skills of individual players. Even RISP, which pertains more to what the individual batter does, does not vary significantly from a player's overall RISP for the season -- so the way a hitter hits with men on base is not a skill that can be isolated in an explanatory way.

    If someone wrote an article saying that Choo's OBP is a mirage because it's inflated by 10 hit by pitch, and his career OBP is only .386, and then made a sarcastic comparison to 3 journeymen with a high OBP in small sample sizes, I would say that article is lame too.
    HBP are also a way of getting on base, if not a particularly safe one. I don't think people are claiming that Choo's .500 OBP is sustainable -- just that it is more indicative of how good he has been than is BP's RBI total, which is more related to opportunity than it is performance.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, it's interesting in assigning credit for the run. Assume Votto scores in all these scenerios

    Scenerio 1: Votto doubles. Phillips doubles. I would give them 50/50 credit.

    Scenerio 2: Votto triples. Phillips SF. I would give Votto more than 50% credit.

    Scenerio 3: Votto singles. Phillips triples. I would give Phillips more than 50% credit.

    There's all kinds of gray areas in between.. but in general, I think the credit should average out to about 50/50 between the table setter and the RBI guy. I know a lot of over people disagree.
    All three of those scenarios make up a very small percentage of the ways guys wind up scoring. More often it is a single, single, single. The guy in the middle gets no "statistical credit". He doesn't get a run or an RBI, but he made both things possible for the other two.

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  8. #21
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    RBI's are a great stat for tracking results.

    OBP is great for determining individual performance quality.

    I would use OBP as a factor in determining quality of player. But to discount a player's ability because of the number of RBI's or lackthereof... who still does that?

    Bat Phillips in the 8 hole, watch his RBIs go down, then say he is slumping. Right, Dusty?
    I think there is still value in the RBI. Particularly when there is a disparity between what a player does when he has a chance to produce runs as opposed to when the bases are empty. I remember when Ryan Howard would have insane RBI numbers when you consider that he struck out 25-30% of the time.

    I fully understand what Baker meant with his RBI comment. As a manager it has to be frustrating when you best player and one of the best hitters in baseball is constantly being pitched around and isn't swinging at balls that are strikes. I thought I heard that Votto was taking ~40% of strikes. If your Baker you want Votto at the plate driving in runs. You don't want him being pitched around or being selective to the point where he isn't getting any good pitches to hit. I think over the last few games he has become more aggressive. Probably both a good and bad thing.

  9. #22
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I think there is still value in the RBI. Particularly when there is a disparity between what a player does when he has a chance to produce runs as opposed to when the bases are empty. I remember when Ryan Howard would have insane RBI numbers when you consider that he struck out 25-30% of the time.

    I fully understand what Baker meant with his RBI comment. As a manager it has to be frustrating when you best player and one of the best hitters in baseball is constantly being pitched around and isn't swinging at balls that are strikes. I thought I heard that Votto was taking ~40% of strikes. If your Baker you want Votto at the plate driving in runs. You don't want him being pitched around or being selective to the point where he isn't getting any good pitches to hit. I think over the last few games he has become more aggressive. Probably both a good and bad thing.
    As a manager you should want your hitters to be doing the best that they can in order to reach first base safely. Anything beyond that is gravy.

    Joey Votto has swung at 60% of the strikes he has seen this year. That is good for 54th lowest in the game out of 191 qualified hitters. Ryan Hanigan, Devin Mesoraco and Zack Cozart are all at 60% as well. We just take notice more because Votto swings much less overall because he gets pitched around so often.

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  11. #23
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think you are misunderstanding the argument, which is that OBP is an individual skill while RBI is a team-dependent statistic.

    .

    No, I'm not misunderstanding anything. I never said that. What you said above is obvious.

    Here's what Cameron says:

    B-R calculates percentage of runners scored relative to total baserunners inherited, which is different from RBI/RBI opportunity because it counts all plate appearances and gives a hitter credit for driving in a run when he might not get an RBI, such as when he hits into a double play or reaches on an error. The Major League average is 14%, so essentially an average ďrun producerĒ would drive in one of every seven runners he inherited. Brandon Phillips is currently at 23%, so heís driving in nearly one of four runners he inherits
    Is B-R a skill? I really don't know if it can be proven either way. But it might be.
    Regardless of whether it's a skill or not, Phillips has been delivering in RBI situations which is as big of a reason the Reds are succeeding as Choo/Votto.

    Phillips is performing at 50% better than the league average rate. I disagree with Cameron. I think that is special. IIRC, the league average OBP is somewhere around 330.. So it looks like Choo and Votto are performing at about 50% better than league average in OBP.. Which is also special.
    Cameron choses to praise one and disregard the other.

    My point about HBP.. sure they should count.
    But if someone wrote an article claiming that HBP is not a skill, Biggio was an outlier, and thus Choo's "real OBP" is only 464, which is good but not particularly special, since it clumps him in with such great stars as Jed Lowrie, Chris Davis, and AJ Ellis, wouldn't you say that the article was dumb? I sure would.

    That's exactly what Cameron did to Phillips.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #24
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I don't think sarcasm here is meant to belittle Phillips. He goes out of his way to praise BP's performance. He's just putting the accomplishments in perspective.
    .
    This is basically the argument he is trying to support with his article.
    Do you not agree?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron
    And now, his own manager is propagating the myth of who is really responsible for the Reds early success.

    ďOn-base percentage is good. But RBIs are better,Ē (Dusty) Baker said.

    The entire point of the article is to belittle Phillips driving in the runs, and giving the majority of the credit to the OBP kings.
    It's part of the mindset that "if you put runners on base, the runs will all fall into place automatically". That's not exactly how it works.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #25
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    All three of those scenarios make up a very small percentage of the ways guys wind up scoring. More often it is a single, single, single. The guy in the middle gets no "statistical credit". He doesn't get a run or an RBI, but he made both things possible for the other two.
    I think the guy in the middle should get credit too. I'm not sure what percentage to assign to the middle guy. I was just trying to give simple examples.
    If the middle guy advances the runner with an out, he also gets some credit for the run. I agree, the stats don't give the middle guy credit. They probably should.

    Larkin was a master at hitting the ball to RF to advance the runner from 1b to 2b.
    He really didn't get enough credit for doing that.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #26
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    For me, the bigger point on Phillips is he's always had his best plate approach while hitting cleanup. Might be as simple as he's more focused on finding pitches to drive. Better selectivity = better results.

    Whatever it is, the cleanup hitting version of Brandon Phillips was always a good bet to drive in a lot of runs given lots of RBI chances simply because he's a capable hitter.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  16. #27
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    There's all kinds of gray areas in between.. but in general, I think the credit should average out to about 50/50 between the table setter and the RBI guy. I know a lot of over people disagree.
    Except that if the guy doesn't get on base to begin with, then the second event doesn't exist at all!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  17. #28
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Whatever it is, the cleanup hitting version of Brandon Phillips was always a good bet to drive in a lot of runs given lots of RBI chances simply because he's a capable hitter.
    Do the stats bear this out? Is he a better hitter in the cleanup slot, or is it just random variance? Honest question, I don't doubt what you are saying.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  18. #29
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    This is why I like the Runs Created formula.

    It gives "credit" for what the batter has control of.

    Phillips hits a double that drives in runs, great, but his contribution was the double. The guy that scored, great, but his contribution was getting on base.

    Each is an independent act that forms a whole.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  20. #30
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    This is basically the argument he is trying to support with his article.
    Do you not agree?
    Yes, I agree that the point of the article is to put BP's accomplishments in perspective. I do see sarcasm, but I don't see it directed in the way you do. The tone is more directed at those who think BP's RBI's are due to some sort of supreme achievement on his part. I think Cameron's attitude comes from fending off years and years of arguments along these lines when the data clearly doesn't support it.

    It's part of the mindset that "if you put runners on base, the runs will all fall into place automatically". That's not exactly how it works.
    That's a misrepresentation of the argument. No one is saying that runs score automatically. They are saying that more runners on base = more runs scoring, and that this is a more reliable measure to hang your hat on when you are constructing a roster and doling out contracts.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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