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Thread: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

  1. #46
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hitters getting on base = scoring runs.
    Since when does this equation work? Hitters getting on base = hitters getting on base. Unless someone manages to do something to knock one of those guys in...that equation does not = scoring runs. Hitters getting on base is a good thing, nobody disputes that. But scoring runs is the goal at the end of the day. How that's accomplished...I couldn't care less. But getting runners on base is BY FAR the easiest way.
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  3. #47
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Brandon's splits

    2- 320/424
    4-332/458

    He may believe that's what he's doing.
    In all fairness, I think you would need to count outs that drive in runs as part of this scenerio. Not sure how you'd do that, but in theory, Brandon might be trying to get a sac fly or another out that scores a run.

    Now I know, there's the entire debate on whether SF are a skill or not.

    There's also a debate on whether it's more difficult to hit with runners on base or not. We have some real major league pitchers that say they work at 80% energy until runners get on base (eg pitch to contact) to conserve energy. Then when runners get on base, they say they "reach back for more" or "bear down".
    So, based on this information, is it more difficult to hit with runners in scoring position or not? Hard to say. It's further complicated that when a starting pitcher runs out of gas later in the game, he's more likely to put runners on and more likely to give up an RBI (this is an argument that maybe it's easier to hit with runners on base late in the game against a tired starter).

    The whole analysis can not be boiled down to four numbers. I'm not sure it can be solved or not, but the point is, it's complex. I don't think we have all the answers yet.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  4. #48
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Since when does this equation work? Hitters getting on base = hitters getting on base. Unless someone manages to do something to knock one of those guys in...that equation does not = scoring runs. Hitters getting on base is a good thing, nobody disputes that. But scoring runs is the goal at the end of the day. How that's accomplished...I couldn't care less. But getting runners on base is BY FAR the easiest way.
    Can't score if you can't get on base. The more times people get on base, the more chances you have and the more times you are going to come through. Yes, on the absolute small scale, getting on does not equal scoring runs. But in 162 games, yes, it works.

  5. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Thanks for looking that up. I hadn't realized that BP had so many AB in the cleanup spot for his career. It's clear his numbers are a tick better there -- but is the difference between his career numbers (.273/.322/.435) and his cleanup numbers (.282/.332/.458) really so significant that we can start looking for causality beyond random variation?
    Again, an honest question.
    The gap is slightly larger because you need to back out his cleanup numbers from his overall numbers. It's likely over 50 points of OPS which is a standard deviation better.
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And of course I would rather face Phillips, then Bruce and then Votto. Votto > Bruce > Phillips.
    Are you speaking from an opponent's viewpoint or saying that in the 3-4-5 hole you'd have Votto Bruce & Phillips?

    To me the current 3-4-5 lineup seems optimal. Votto is an OBP king, Phillips seems better at moving baserunners than Bruce, so have him bat 4th. Bruce can bring the power, so (ideally) after Phillips has moved runner(s) a HR would be icing on the cake. And then Frazier does something amazing again.
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  7. #51
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by MrRedLegger View Post
    Are you speaking from an opponent's viewpoint or saying that in the 3-4-5 hole you'd have Votto Bruce & Phillips?

    To me the current 3-4-5 lineup seems optimal. Votto is an OBP king, Phillips seems better at moving baserunners than Bruce, so have him bat 4th. Bruce can bring the power, so (ideally) after Phillips has moved runner(s) a HR would be icing on the cake. And then Frazier does something amazing again.
    I would have Joey Votto and Jay Bruce hitting back to back. Phillips is doing well this season, but a 15-20 HR guy shouldn't be batting 4th in a lineup with Bruce or Frazier in it.

    But my statement was simply that Joey Votto is better than Jay Bruce who is better than Brandon Phillips and every pitcher around will tell you they would rather face Phillips than Bruce and would rather face either than Votto.

  8. #52
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by MrRedLegger View Post
    Are you speaking from an opponent's viewpoint or saying that in the 3-4-5 hole you'd have Votto Bruce & Phillips?

    To me the current 3-4-5 lineup seems optimal. Votto is an OBP king, Phillips seems better at moving baserunners than Bruce, so have him bat 4th. Bruce can bring the power, so (ideally) after Phillips has moved runner(s) a HR would be icing on the cake. And then Frazier does something amazing again.
    I've always thought it should be Votto / Bruce / Phillips in that order. I want my second best hitter batting behind my best hitter. Assuming Choo is leading off, that's Bruce IMO.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #53
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The gap is slightly larger because you need to back out his cleanup numbers from his overall numbers. It's likely over 50 points of OPS which is a standard deviation better.
    Ah, good point. Okay, well, fair enough. BP measurably hits better at cleanup.

    Of course, I suppose the parallel question that has to be considered (and that is actually being considered as I write this) is whether BP as cleanup is the best strategic choice for the lineup. I'm not sure it is when you've got Bruce (and Frazier too) available for the role.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  10. #54
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Ah, good point. Okay, well, fair enough. BP measurably hits better at cleanup.

    Of course, I suppose the parallel question that has to be considered (and that is actually being considered as I write this) is whether BP as cleanup is the best strategic choice for the lineup. I'm not sure it is when you've got Bruce (and Frazier too) available for the role.
    It looks like Phillips is OPSing 790 in the cleanup slot.

    Bruce is a lifetime 811 OPS hitter. Last year was 751. Year before was 841.
    Not sure what his cleanup numbers are.

    I guess I would say that if you believe Phillips is a legit 790 OPS hitter going forward (or close to that), there's not a huge difference between him and Bruce.

    I honestly think that the team benefits from having a righty between Votto and Bruce. Obviously, no way to prove it, but it's nice when a loogy is left in to face Phillips. At bare minimum, I don't think it's a no brainer to put Bruce ahead of Phillips. I think at best, it's a break-even move.

    Phillips reminds me of when the Tigers had Alan Trammel hitting cleanup. That seemed to work well too (at least according to my faded memory)
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  11. #55
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Since when does this equation work? Hitters getting on base = hitters getting on base. Unless someone manages to do something to knock one of those guys in...that equation does not = scoring runs. Hitters getting on base is a good thing, nobody disputes that. But scoring runs is the goal at the end of the day. How that's accomplished...I couldn't care less. But getting runners on base is BY FAR the easiest way.
    Getting runners on base is the ONLY way to score a run.

    Have to touch first to touch the plate.
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  12. #56
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    I've said it multiple times in game threads when I'm able to follow the games. He is no longer an easy out with two strikes, falling easy prey to a ball in the dirt or outside slider. He has matured greatly in his approach, which now sees home runs to center field, and rbi's to right.....(as opposed to trying to yank them out to left and rolling up a DP)
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  13. #57
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The gap is slightly larger because you need to back out his cleanup numbers from his overall numbers. It's likely over 50 points of OPS which is a standard deviation better.
    Of course we would also want to omit anything he did while toiling in Cleveland, since he never hit cleanup there...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  14. #58
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Getting runners on base is the ONLY way to score a run.

    Have to touch first to touch the plate.
    This has been said 4-5 times on the thread.
    No one disagrees.
    It's as obvious as saying if someone is on base and gets stranded there, it doesn't help the team win.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #59
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It's as obvious as saying if someone is on base and gets stranded there, it doesn't help the team win.
    Actually, it does.

    If you get on base, even if you don't score, you move the lineup over.

    More PA's
    More base runners
    More Runs.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  16. #60
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Bruce is a lifetime 811 OPS hitter. Last year was 751. Year before was 841.
    Not sure what his cleanup numbers are.

    I guess I would say that if you believe Phillips is a legit 790 OPS hitter going forward (or close to that), there's not a huge difference between him and Bruce.
    They also swing from different sides of the plate and have platoon splits. My preference between Phillips and Bruce is 100 percent driven by which arm the pitcher is using to throw the ball...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."


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