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Thread: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

  1. #61
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The gap is slightly larger because you need to back out his cleanup numbers from his overall numbers. It's likely over 50 points of OPS which is a standard deviation better.
    Phillips from 2010-12

    Code:
    Batting BA 	OBP 	SLG 
    First  .268	.324	.423
    Second .298	.348	.445
    Third  .316	.350	.476
    Fourth .281	.328	.426
    Recent history suggests he actually isn't all that good compared to everywhere else.

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    *BaseClogger* (04-23-2013)

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  4. #62
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Phillips from 2010-12

    Code:
    Batting BA 	OBP 	SLG 
    First  .268	.324	.423
    Second .298	.348	.445
    Third  .316	.350	.476
    Fourth .281	.328	.426
    Recent history suggests he actually isn't all that good compared to everywhere else.
    He should bat third!!!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  5. #63
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Here's how to score run (in order of importance)

    1. Avoid Outs(OBP)
    2. Collect bases (SLG)

    The more people you have avoiding outs and collecting bases, the more runs you're going to score.

    It's simple science.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    AtomicDumpling (04-24-2013)

  7. #64
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I guess I would say that if you believe Phillips is a legit 790 OPS hitter going forward (or close to that), there's not a huge difference between him and Bruce.

    I honestly think that the team benefits from having a righty between Votto and Bruce. Obviously, no way to prove it, but it's nice when a loogy is left in to face Phillips. At bare minimum, I don't think it's a no brainer to put Bruce ahead of Phillips. I think at best, it's a break-even move.
    I think you are right that you could argue this both ways. Here are career splits for Bruce. Here they are for BP.

    Batting fourth Bruce has a paltry .744 (396 PA) but batting fifth he's at .838 (1310 PA). Then again, he's only had 396 PA as a cleanup hitter, so I'm a bit skeptical of that sample size. That's actually one of the problems I've got with the decision makers on this team (notice I didn't say Dusty) -- they seem to yank a player from a logical spot before he actually has time to prove or disprove his value there. But that's not BP's fault. And he just seems to hit better as a cleanup hitter -- at least he has overall.

    You are right that Bruce and Phillips are similar in terms of their OPS splits. For his career, Bruce is at .820 OPS vs. RHP and at .788 vs. LHP. BP is sort of a mirror image, actually -- .822 vs. LHP and .727 vs. RHP. That said, Bruce's splits are not so extreme that you really need to split him from Votto (who absolutely mashes all pitchers).

    I guess I would say I'd prefer Bruce behind Votto just because he's more of a power threat (lifetime .480 SLG vs. .411 for BP). But I can see the argument the other way. One hopes, though, that as BP's skills naturally decline in his 30's, the management slides the younger Bruce or Frazier into the cleanup role.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 05:38 PM.
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  8. #65
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Actually, it does.

    If you get on base, even if you don't score, you move the lineup over.

    More PA's
    More base runners
    More Runs.
    More runs, only if they aren't left stranded.
    Sure, OBP is good (Even Dusty says that).
    Really, the thing that bugs me is the quote that was declared a myth was pulled out of context.
    I saw the whole interview.
    The reporter was talking about OBP. Dusty just wanted to give a call out to Phillips for driving in the runs. Dusty wasn't taking anything away from Votto/Choo. He just didn't want Phillips left out. Arguably, Phillips was star of the game that night.

    Again, another "Let's make fun of Dusty, the author is so much smarter than Dusty" article. Sometimes the stat prophets are their own worse enemy, IMO.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Phillips from 2010-12

    Code:
    Batting BA 	OBP 	SLG 
    First  .268	.324	.423
    Second .298	.348	.445
    Third  .316	.350	.476
    Fourth .281	.328	.426
    Recent history suggests he actually isn't all that good compared to everywhere else.
    I thought the numbers would look something like this. I had the feeling BP was better in the 2 hole when he was there the past few years (especially when Rolen and Ludwick hit cleanup.)

    He does seem to get an on-base advantage hitting there.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  10. #67
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    [QUOTE=REDREAD;2839067]More runs, only if they aren't left stranded.
    QUOTE]

    If you go and look at the numbers, the teams that score the most tend to leave the most runners on base.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  11. #68
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think you are right that you could argue this both ways. Here are career splits for Bruce. Here they are for BP.

    Batting fourth Bruce has a paltry .744 (396 PA) but batting fifth he's at .838 (1310 PA). Then again, he's only had 396 PA as a cleanup hitter, so I'm a bit skeptical of that sample size. That's actually one of the problems I've got with the decision makers on this team (notice I didn't say Dusty) -- they seem to yank a player from a logical spot before he actually has time to prove or disprove his value there. But that's not BP's fault. And he just seems to hit better as a cleanup hitter -- at least he has overall.

    You are right that Bruce and Phillips are similar in terms of their OPS splits. For his career, Bruce is at .820 OPS vs. RHP and at .788 vs. LHP. BP is sort of a mirror image, actually -- .822 vs. LHP and .727 vs. RHP. That said, Bruce's splits are not so extreme that you really need to split him from Votto (who absolutely mashes all pitchers).

    I guess I would say I'd prefer Bruce behind Votto just because he's more of a power threat (lifetime .480 SLG vs. .411 for BP). But I can see the argument the other way. One hopes, though, that as BP's skills naturally decline in his 30's, the management slides the younger Bruce or Frazier into the cleanup role.
    It's a fair argument.. I can agree with you that Bruce doesn't have enough AB as a cleanup hitter to make a clear decision.
    It's also difficult to say how much a batter's position in the order affects his production.

    Dusty did make a comment about how eventually Frasier might develop into a cleanup hitter, but (paraphrased) Dusty said that at this point, Phillips is a better fit.
    Part of that might be leaving Frasier in a lower profile/lower pressure spot in the order. Frasier has really shined in the #6 slot in the order this year, which really is awesome. I was a bit worried that Frasier might have a sophmore slump.

    But yea, I could see an argument for arranging Bruce/Phillips/Frasier in almost any order.. I'm not sure it would impact runs scored greatly. I confess I do like Dusty's strategy of alternating L-R though.. I can understand why it drives people nuts though
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #69
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Is B-R a skill?
    No. Its a website.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    REDREAD (04-23-2013)

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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    I believe that the L-R split is great insurance for our lineup, especially now that we have 3 lefties. It keeps the starting pitcher in check and limits the effectiveness of a specialty reliever.

    As for cleanup, I actually think that batting average (gasp!) in this case serves as a good argument. Here it is. BP career: .280/.331/.465 vs Bruce career: .256/.331/.480
    Bruce has an edge at extra base hits, but at the rate our 1-3 batters are getting on base, a higher BA (and significantly lower SO%, 14% to 24%) fits this scenario much better. BP can get a base hit and have a good chance at advancing the runners 2 or more bases. Then let Bruce try to rip one for extra bases.
    There are only two seasons - Winter and Baseball.

  15. #71
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Phillips from 2010-12

    Code:
    Batting BA 	OBP 	SLG 
    First  .268	.324	.423
    Second .298	.348	.445
    Third  .316	.350	.476
    Fourth .281	.328	.426
    Recent history suggests he actually isn't all that good compared to everywhere else.
    "Recent history" sounds like a fancy way of cherry-picking a smaller sample to make it work.

    Did you use 2010 because it was beneficial to your numbers? It seems to me that a career sample is a lot more telling than a 3-year slice when trying to determine if someone is more effective at a spot due to comfort.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #72
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Three year splits are a very common way to evaluate a player's current true talent. It's not valid to label that as cherry picking.

    But let's face it, it's an academic argument. Phillips is due for a significant regression even if one believes he hits better in the clean up role. He's not going to plate 24% of his RBI opportunities over long stretches.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #73
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    "Recent history" sounds like a fancy way of cherry-picking a smaller sample to make it work.

    Did you use 2010 because it was beneficial to your numbers? It seems to me that a career sample is a lot more telling than a 3-year slice when trying to determine if someone is more effective at a spot due to comfort.
    I chose the last three years because it is a lot more indicative of what to expect from him moving forward than something he did in 2006-2009. I didn't even look at what he did before 2010, so I have no idea how those numbers look. He did hit 30 home runs prior to that, so it wouldn't shock me if his numbers are influenced by that season and look good. But that isn't the guy that Phillips is now, or has been ever since.

  18. #74
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    I didn't think the article belittled Phillips at all. Cameron was actually very complimentary of Phillips. If the article belittled anyone it was Dusty Baker, which may not have been entirely fair in this case since it was just a random postgame quote. It wouldn't be fair to label Dusty as ignorant of OBP based wholly on that lone quote. But everyone already knew that Dusty does not have an adequate understanding of the importance of On-Base Percentage. The evidence for that is overwhelming and has been for years.

  19. #75
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: "Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI machine"

    Personally, I find Cameron to be the Tim McCarver of stat guys. He seems to make a living out of making a big production out of repeating run of the mill observations and puffing them up as important revelations (similar to McCarver's TV schtick). Most of what he says seems to be almost common knowledge for the already initiated (which is who would be reading a site like Fangraphs). Once you know the subject matter of his next article, you could pretty much predict exactly what he's going to say. He's not necessarily "wrong" in most of what he says, but we've heard it all before.

    Guy is getting a lot of RBI because the two league leaders in getting on base are hitting in front of him. Wow. I'm so enlightened that my life has completely changed from this. Yawn.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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