SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

[WildcatFan]

Joey's also tied for 11th in the league in runs scored.

You know, cuz he gets on base a lot.

[RiverRat13]

Until you get two of them, all strikes are not created equal. When a batter is ahead in the count, I would hope he is looking for a strike that he can do damage with, not just any pitch that falls within the strikezone.

[Crosley68]

I am convinced that because he has such good mechanics that if Joey swung the bat twice as often his power numbers would go up, his average would drop slightly and his OBP percentage would go down. Would that be acceptable?

I think so. I have more faith in his ability to drive in runs over the long haul than the people behind him.

[Kc61]

Verducci did some excellent writing about the playoff teams last year. He's really a terrific baseball writer, whether you agree with his points or not.

Of course, in Votto's case, he is semi-intentionally walked very often. Can't expect him to swing when they won't pitch to him.

[westofyou]

Verducci did some excellent writing about the playoff teams last year. He's really a terrific baseball writer, whether you agree with his points or not.

Of course, in Votto's case, he is semi-intentionally walked very often. Can't expect him to swing when they won't pitch to him.

He also covered his K theory in the SI season preview, this is something he'll be writing about all year, it's his new angle (like the pitch count stories) as a writer it's a good angle to follow and make no mistake TV is a good writer

[RollyInRaleigh]

I hate it when theories place everyone in "a box." Some guys are good at working the count. Others are not so good at it. Let guys do what they do best and if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

[blumj]

Is it even true that hitters who see the most pitches are hitters who take the most pitches, or that they're any more or less likely to strike out than hitters who are more aggressive? The hitters I see striking out a lot are hitters who swing and miss a lot and the hitters I see having long PAs hit tons of foul balls.

[kaldaniels]

I am in favor of green lights on 3-0 pitches. Now, discretion must be used on what to swing at...but I'd say 50 percent of the time on 3-0 a very hittable pitch is piped in.

So, if it is a hittable strike, are you better served to swing at the 3-0 pitch, or take it and head to a 3-1 count? I say look dead red fastball (or whatever pitch the batter is comfortable with) and swing away if you get one mid-zone.

[RollyInRaleigh]

How about first pitches? Most pitching coaches preach, "Get ahead, stay ahead." Sometimes it's the best pitch a hitter will see. I always have told my teams to look to hit the first pitch if the pitcher has control and is continually getting ahead with a first pitch fastball.

[757690]

Hitting philosophy should be rather simple.

Until there are two strikes, look for a pitch you can crush. That's different for every hitter, but every hitter should know what pitches they hit best. If you see a pitch in your hot zone, even if its not a strike, crush it. If not, let it pass, even if it is a strike.

Once should get to two strikes, protect the strike zone. Choke up, shorten your swing, concentrate on making contact.

Except for when there is two strikes, it's silly to worry about the count.

[Brutus]

The problem is going deeper in the count is not a new trend. This idea was becoming a big part of baseball in the 90's. I remember being a part of that discussion, and I have a family member that played MLB in the 90's. His manager (I am not going to get into who it is) believed in taking the first pitch and working the count (I still remember watching games with my dad and him getting ticked how the entire team seemed to watch the first pitch every time). As we can see from the chart, this idea continued to grow into the 2000's. Yet it is not until recently that we have seen a reduction in runs. This not only doesn't even touch on causation, it doesn't even correlate if you look at 1990-2008. His numbers are cherry picked, and even then the basis for his argument (strikeouts means less offense) is poor. So not only does he not provide legit causation, he ignores obvious lack of correlation. Runs have simply returned to the level we saw commonly in the 80's despite the change in approach. Yet saying it doesn't help is also ignoring the improvements in pitching since then.

What all this says to me is the approach offsets the improvements in pitching, and there was something else in the 90's into the late 2000's that caused an increase in offense. Yet I really don't want to rehash that argument.

His numbers aren't cherry-picked. If you run correlation between the two, you'll see a pretty high degree of correlation, which indicates there's a positive, meaningful relationship between the two.

You're right the trend started in the 1990s, but have you considered perhaps it's reached its breaking point? The patience angle has been trending for so long, it's reached its point of diminishing returns. It's no longer beneficial to continue being more and more patient. Where before it was creating a higher on-base percentage which was outweighing the increased number of strikeouts, now the OBP isn't improving and the strikeouts continue to rise. His point is absolutely on target that we're now to the point where being patient for patience sake is not working. Perhaps it was in the 90s and early this decade, but it's now gone too far in the other direction. Again, it was only going to go so far before it became too much of an extreme.

[westofyou]

He's the laziest damn ballplayer I've ever seen in my life, he never takes the bat off his shoulder."

Bill DeWitt on Roy Cullenbine after his 1941 season with the Browns.


Batters don't follow out their natural instinct to wallop the ball, but stall around the plate in the hope of drawing a base instead of hitting the ball hard.

Bill Lange 3-14-1909

[ervinsm84]

Has this guy ever admitted that the one thing he is known for, the "verducci effect," is nothing more than pseudoscience?

[kaldaniels]

Has this guy ever admitted that the one thing he is known for, the "verducci effect," is nothing more than pseudoscience?

In this article the thread is based on, he dips into the statistics and attempts to be "saber". Yet year after year he throws up his arbitrary list pulled out of his behind and presents it as being analytical.

Overusing young arms certainly is an injury risk. But the way he churns out his list leaves out so many variables.

[RedsBaron]

Hitting philosophy should be rather simple.

Until there are two strikes, look for a pitch you can crush. That's different for every hitter, but every hitter should know what pitches they hit best. If you see a pitch in your hot zone, even if its not a strike, crush it. If not, let it pass, even if it is a strike.

Once should get to two strikes, protect the strike zone. Choke up, shorten your swing, concentrate on making contact.

Except for when there is two strikes, it's silly to worry about the count.

I fully agree.