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Thread: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

  1. #31
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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    His numbers aren't cherry-picked. If you run correlation between the two, you'll see a pretty high degree of correlation, which indicates there's a positive, meaningful relationship between the two.

    You're right the trend started in the 1990s, but have you considered perhaps it's reached its breaking point? The patience angle has been trending for so long, it's reached its point of diminishing returns. It's no longer beneficial to continue being more and more patient. Where before it was creating a higher on-base percentage which was outweighing the increased number of strikeouts, now the OBP isn't improving and the strikeouts continue to rise. His point is absolutely on target that we're now to the point where being patient for patience sake is not working. Perhaps it was in the 90s and early this decade, but it's now gone too far in the other direction. Again, it was only going to go so far before it became too much of an extreme.
    His numbers are cherry picked. He doesn't even touch on the fact that runs increased for the vast majority of the timeframe he shows an increase in strikeouts and first pitches taken. He also ignores Votto's numbers last year (which directly refute his argument) and instead makes a point based on a small sample size this year. That is most definitely cherry picking, and is horrible writing. Anyone trying to make the point he is making would certainly check Votto's trend prior to this year to make sure it fits his point. Either he is lazy or purposely misleading the reader in order to make a name for himself by trying to point out something that simply does not exist.

    As for diminishing returns, are you telling me less than 1 extra strikeout a game causes over half a run less a game? Runs are dramatically down over just the last few years while the approach we are talking about is something over 2 decades in the process. It's a huge reach to think there is some sort of cliff at 7 strikeouts a game.

    The simple reasoning is staring everyone in the face. Slugging percentage and batting average are down. Now, if you think the current approach to hitting has effect on slugging and BA, then that makes no sense since slugging is still higher than the 80's and BA is very similar. There simply is no correlation how hard you want to try. Everyone knows the reason for the reduction in runs, and it seems like there is an endless number of people trying to make a name for themselves by trying to point out something less obvious. Occam's razor.

    Let's face it. We all know what happened in the 90's and 2000's. Numbers are simply returning to the levels we saw in the 1980's. If numbers were at historical lows I would tend to agree, but they are not. They have just returned to the norm.
    Last edited by scott91575; 04-25-2013 at 02:15 AM.

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    This is not the same baseball they played in the '80s and early '90s. There is a whole lot more power. Gobs more power. OB is back down to what it used to be, but that's because modern pitchers have grown up in a game where you get punished extra hard if you allow baserunners. We now have a generation of pitchers schooled in avoiding the multi-run homer. A man on base is a crisis.

    And that's why Verducci's theory is nuts. The power that is still in the game makes OB dangerous. On top of that, scarcity of OB makes the high BB player (e.g. a Ben Zobrist) all the more valuable. Verducci has it backwards.
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  5. #33
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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    I find Tom Verducci very annoying on MLB Network. I suppose it is his smugness combined with his cluelessness.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    He's on to at least one thing, for me it's a lot less fun, just as a fan of the game, to watch a guy work a count, than it is to watch a guy who goes up there hacking.

  7. #35
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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    I think winning is fun.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    This is not the same baseball they played in the '80s and early '90s. There is a whole lot more power. Gobs more power. OB is back down to what it used to be, but that's because modern pitchers have grown up in a game where you get punished extra hard if you allow baserunners. We now have a generation of pitchers schooled in avoiding the multi-run homer. A man on base is a crisis.

    And that's why Verducci's theory is nuts. The power that is still in the game makes OB dangerous. On top of that, scarcity of OB makes the high BB player (e.g. a Ben Zobrist) all the more valuable. Verducci has it backwards.
    I think his theory is nuts when it comes to the inference that Joey Votto is doing something wrong.

    I do think that he might be onto something for the typical hitter with respect to the patience having reached the counter-productive stage. Like you said, pitchers are trying to avoid giving up the multi-run bombs and the good pitchers are really good at limiting walks these days. Seeing pitches for the sake of seeing pitches against a guy who's pounding the zone doesn't work out very well for the average guy.
    Not all who wander are lost

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I think his theory is nuts when it comes to the inference that Joey Votto is doing something wrong.

    I do think that he might be onto something for the typical hitter with respect to the patience having reached the counter-productive stage. Like you said, pitchers are trying to avoid giving up the multi-run bombs and the good pitchers are really good at limiting walks these days. Seeing pitches for the sake of seeing pitches against a guy who's pounding the zone doesn't work out very well for the average guy.
    exactly

    I think Stubbs, for example, tries very hard with this approach, and it leads him to taking strike 1 right down the middle and lunging at a curve in the dirt for strike 3. If he just swung at a pitch he could handle, even if the first pitch of the at bat, I think he'd have more success. Part of the problem also comes from announcers, who always remark with disgust when a hitter pops out on the first pitch. There's pressure for these guys to see a lot of pitches, and pitchers know that and will often throw a cookie for strike one to get ahead.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I think winning is fun.
    I'm sure that's true for you and many hard core baseball fans. However, a major topic of conversation over the last decade is why baseball is losing so many fans (millions upon millions). A major factor always discussed is the slowness of the game.

    "Working the count" surely contributes to this. As does the flip side of the coin, a deliberate pitcher taking his time working, then nibbling nibbling nibbling instead of throwing freaking strikes.

    Anything to speed at-bats up, I am for.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    I'm sure that's true for you and many hard core baseball fans. However, a major topic of conversation over the last decade is why baseball is losing so many fans (millions upon millions). A major factor always discussed is the slowness of the game.

    "Working the count" surely contributes to this. As does the flip side of the coin, a deliberate pitcher taking his time working, then nibbling nibbling nibbling instead of throwing freaking strikes.

    Anything to speed at-bats up, I am for.
    Millions???

    Attendance at an all time high, Tv money bleeds everywhere.

    The game is not losing millions of fans

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Millions???

    Attendance at an all time high, Tv money bleeds everywhere.

    The game is not losing millions of fans
    I don't have it in front of me, but SI ran an analysis last week that 30+ million fewer TV viewers watched the 2012 World Series than 30 years ago. And it's a steady decline, not an up and down thing. So not just millions. MILLIONSSSSSS.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    I don't have it in front of me, but SI ran an analysis last week that 30+ million fewer TV viewers watched the 2012 World Series than 30 years ago. And it's a steady decline, not an up and down thing. So not just millions. MILLIONSSSSSS.
    Its best as a regional sport and is thriving that way. To judge it by World Series ratings is silly, when they produce so many TV hours for the season. Can't judge it like other sports. Has 10 times the TV inventory of NFL.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    I like watching Joey hit. Of course, I liked watching Vlad Guerrero too and he wasn't exactly selective.
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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    I like watching Joey hit. Of course, I liked watching Vlad Guerrero too and he wasn't exactly selective.
    Manny Sanguillen agrees with Verducci.

    The man was hard to walk.

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    I don't have it in front of me, but SI ran an analysis last week that 30+ million fewer TV viewers watched the 2012 World Series than 30 years ago. And it's a steady decline, not an up and down thing. So not just millions. MILLIONSSSSSS.
    One week in late October on TV doesn't define the health of a product distributed nightly for six months

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    Re: SI Verducci: Virtue, and victory, no longer synonymous with patience at the plate

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Manny Sanguillen agrees with Verducci.

    The man was hard to walk.
    It was either him or Mota (I get my Manny's confused), who gave one of my favorite baseball quotes ever, "you can't walk off the island."


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