Buddy and I were debating...what say you and why??
Buddy and I were debating...what say you and why??
Bryce. Starting early helps the counting stats.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
One thing that I truly believe could really help Votto---that long term contract. I think it helps to stay with one team for your whole career...I dont have any stats to back that up, just a feeling.
I don't think there is a better chance for either. They both will be in the HOF someday barring some horrible career busting injury. Votto is a hitter along the lines of George Brett and Tony Gwynn. Harper is in the lines of greats like Mantle and Mays with his speed and power.
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One of them has a career slash line of .315/.417/.549 and an MVP award. The other has a career slash line of .280/.354/.511. How about we wait until Harper proves that he can put up big numbers for oh ... at least one full season ... before we put him in Cooperstown?
He's got all the potential in the world. But until he does it for the long haul, that's all it is.
Here's Votto's HOF stats from bbref, which don't include this season yet:
First Base (73rd), 27.9 career WAR/27.9 7yr-peak WAR/27.9 JAWS
Average HOF 1B (out of 19) = 68.2 career WAR/43.2 7yr-peak WAR/55.7 JAWS
So if I'm reading that right, his 7 year peak needs to hit about 43 WAR. If you take out 2008 and start his peak years in 2009 through 2015, he'll need to average about 5 WAR this year, next year and in 2015 as well to be an average 1st base HOFer in their peak 7 years. Then overall he needs to get to 68 career WAR, an average of about 3 WAR or so to finish his career. It would be nice to see him chop a lot more wood over the next 3 years to be sure.
I'm saying neither right now. Simply put health is going to play too much of a factor in it. Longevity is taken for granted too often. And a 3 or 4 year period of being the best in the game...it simply isn't enough. MLB is a grind and a 10 year career is a great career....HOF'ers have 20 year careers.
I'm leery of making such a guess so early on in a career (and yes, as careers go, Joey's still early). Baseball history is replete with players who at the front end of their career who seemed like sure fire bets to make the hall. I understand the debate and all, but it will be many years before we can make such a suggestion.
Just looking over Joey's "Similarity Scores" on Baseball Reference, there's only one player he compares to who I think is a sure-fire HOF'er - Jeff Bagwell. Todd Helton's a maybe. He has a lot of years and if he maintains his same level of play for much of his contract, I think he's got a good chance.
Harper has to get much more history under his belt before it's even an open question.
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If I was betting, I would say Votto. He has much more production in the bank than Harper. 6 years into his career, and is still considered of the the top 3 or so hitters in the game. He didn't get figured out by the league. Good question.
Harper, no question. Firstly, let me know acknowledge that both have HOF peak talent. But it's a question of longevity.
While Votto has more performance under his belt, Votto's first full major league season came at age 25. I expect he'll wind up in the Hall of Very Good as he slowly declines through his 30's.
Meanwhile, Harper will have 5 full seasons under his belt by the time he's the age Votto started at. He could have 30 WAR or more by that point.
If you use the really rough idea of losing half a win per season through your 30's, assuming health, Votto still comes in south of 70 WAR, which puts him in that borderline territory where some of the more subjective stuff tends to come up.
Harper could very well outpace that by 30 WAR.
Obviously there's a lot of projection and health involved, but I don't think Votto's accrued performance to date gives him enough of an edge.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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Lots of hitters dominate for a year or 5 and don't come close to the hall of fame. Jack Clark, Kevin Mitchell, Pedro Guerrero, George Foster....It's a long list of very very very good players.
As to Harper's chances...Cesar Cedeno looked like a sure thing hall of famer at the age of 22 as well. Sometimes things happen.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
Norm Chortleton (05-02-2013)
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
If I had my choice of of any non-pitcher in the majors to start a team, Bryce Harper would be a simple choice. And I'm someone who would bend over backwards to pick a SS.
What Harper has accomplished at his age is phenominal. Trout had a great year last year (and it will likely be his career year IMO), but he was one year older than Harper. He'll be looking up at Harper most of his career.
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