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Thread: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Disagree on Votto. He's put up some ridiculous seasons the past few years, especially in terms of on base.
    No doubt. Votto has had some great seasons. But 2 things: 1) As good as those seasons were, his overall value is capped by his limited contributions in the field and on the bases. As a 1B, the HOF-bar as a hitter is quite high. 2) In all likelihood, 2010 & 2011 are going to be the best seasons of Votto's career. Sure, it's possible he keeps up this current level of ~6 WAR production for a few more years before tailing off. It's even possible he discovers a new level of power and puts up an 8 WAR season. But neither of those are likely. If he can both stay at this ~6 WAR peak level for 3 or 4 more years AND stay healthy through his contract, 70+ WAR is possible, but it's not likely. Just ask Junior what can happen in your 30's. But unlike Junior, ARod, Mantle, etc. (and potentially Harper), guys who were studs from age 20 or 21 onward, Votto won't have a HOF worthy career in the bank already when he turns 30.

    Put simply, Votto's HOF chances hinge on him meeting his career's upside potential and meeting the potential means staying very healthy and productive deep in to his 30s. That upside potential caps at out something like Jeff Bagwell's 80 WAR. An average projection for him comes in closer to 55 or 60.

    With Harper, his upside is Frank Robinson's 100+ WAR. Sure, he average projection is probably something like 60 as well, but he's got a lot more room above that than Votto does. (I actually think Robinson is a pretty solid comp for Harper in terms of skill set). Guys who are this good in their early 20's are very rare and tend to have HOF careers. Let's say Harper finishes his age 20 season with 10+career fWAR -- which is what's on pace for. He would be the 20th major leaguer to accomplish that. Of the other 19, two are active (Trout and Andruw Jones), 3 finished their careers in the mid 50s of WAR - Hall of Very Good territory (Vada Pinson, Sherry Magee, Cesar Cedeno) and the other 14 are HOFers, mostly inner circle types.

    Look at Votto again, he's on pace for about 33 fWAR through his age 29 season. That's nothing to sneeze at. But there are 159 guys in major league history who have accomplished that. I'm not going to count the HOFers among them, because most of the hitters in the HOF would be on that list. But the list also includes the likes of John Olerud, Robin Ventura, Will Clark, and Nomar Garciaparra -- and a lot of other guys who were really good and didn't quite reach HOF level. As I looked through the list, I was actually surprised at just how "special" it was -- I expected it to be more than 159. But still, what Harper will have done by the end of the season is about 7 times as rare what Votto has done and puts him in more elite company.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-02-2013 at 06:26 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  4. #17
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    If Harper lives up to his potential the sky is the limit. If Votto maintains his production well into his 30s and voters choose to value rate stats as much as counting stats he will have a very good shot at the Hall.

  5. #18
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    I refuse to even discuss HOF about any player who has never played a full season of MLB baseball. Especially one who isn't old enough to drink yet. So much can happen to Harper in just the next year that can change, for better and worse, who he is as a person and a ballplayer.

    I also think Votto is going to have a tougher time than many think because of his late start. His counting stats will be low in comparison to others in the HOF.

    But if I had to choose, I would choose Votto easily. He simply has done more and has a more proven track record. Bird in the hand.
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredmechanism View Post
    You're right, but HOF voting on a hitter is largely based on hits and homeruns.
    Maybe today it is...but hopefully Votto isn't HOF eligible for another 18 years or so. HOF voting won't be like it is today.

  7. #20
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I refuse to even discuss HOF about any player who has never played a full season of MLB baseball.
    He's played 166 games...technically that is a full season's worth. Halfway there.

  8. #21
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    How about we wait until Harper proves that he can put up big numbers for oh ... at least one full season ... before we put him in Cooperstown?
    Why so offended?

    How about we talk about whatever the heck we want to because it's a message board.


  9. #22
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    It's the Hall of Fame. Canadians aren't so good at fame.

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  11. #23
    Salukifan2
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    So far it looks like Larry Walker isn't going to make the Hall. He broke into league the same age as Votto and has numbers that are pretty similar through the age 29 season (votto's being superior) but Walker's seasons between the ages of 30 and 34 will probably be better than Votto's.

    Before people jump on me and go off about how he played in the steroid era and at coors field i realize this. But Larry never had any roid connections that i can remember and Joey plays in a lefties heaven too.

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  13. #24
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    In 1976, Fred Lynn looked like shoo in for the Hall. Darryl Stawberry looked like a shoo in after 1985. Andy Van Slyke, Juan Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Ben Grieve, and many more young players looked like HOF material in their youth.

    Harper looks like the real deal, but history tells us that even that only give him around a 10% chance eventually being in the HOF.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Harper by a lot, Votto will be 30 before this season ends.
    A 1st baseman has to put up monster numbers to get in.
    I think he will become more of a Keith Hernandez / Mark Grace type player as he ages.
    We have already seen that to some extent (he just seems to prefer to hit the ball to the left side) or just be an on base guy. With that philosophy he will just not be able to put up the power numbers for Cooperstown.

  16. #26
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    So far it looks like Larry Walker isn't going to make the Hall. He broke into league the same age as Votto and has numbers that are pretty similar through the age 29 season (votto's being superior) but Walker's seasons between the ages of 30 and 34 will probably be better than Votto's.

    Before people jump on me and go off about how he played in the steroid era and at coors field i realize this. But Larry never had any roid connections that i can remember and Joey plays in a lefties heaven too.
    Good point, Walker also could run much better than Votto was a great outfielder (7-GG's) with a cannon for an arm. Also a MVP winner.
    Last edited by Falcon7; 05-02-2013 at 08:02 PM.

  17. #27
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Harper... but I think both will be there.
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  18. #28
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Why so offended?

    How about we talk about whatever the heck we want to because it's a message board.

    I'm not offended at all. But like another poster touched on, there have been hundreds of phenoms people thought were locks for the HOF who never came close. We're a month into the season. Let's see if he can adjust when pitchers adjust to him.

    And please quote the part of my post that said you can't talk about whatever the heck you want to. If Harper puts together full seasons like he's playing now, maybe I'll even agree with you.

  19. #29
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    I will give Votto a 50% chance and I will give Harper a 55% chance of making the Hall of Fame.

    The roadblock for Votto is his late start that may keep his counting stats below Hall of Fame thresholds, but his rate stats are epic.

    Harper's biggest roadblock is injury. He will have to stay healthy for 15+ full seasons worth of games. I think his combo of sweet swing, pure talent and driven determination are sensational and the best I have ever seen in a young player.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 05-03-2013 at 03:11 AM.

  20. #30
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    I expect both Votto and Harper will make the Hall of Fame but neither are"locks" at this point.
    Joey has a Hall of Fame Monitor Score of 63; the average member of the HOF has a score of 100. Joey has a HOF Standards Score of 32; the average member of the HOF has a score of 50. Joey has a Black Ink score of 12; the average member of the HOF has a score of 27. Joey has a Gray Ink Score of 67; the average member of the HOF has a score of 144.
    A number of posters have noted that HOF voters tend to focus on "counting stats" such as hits and home runs, which is true. Joey Votto may be helped by sabermetrics. By the time he presumably becomes eligible for HOF consideration a lot of the "old guard" HOF voters will be gone, and the younger voters should be more receptive to considering the importance of OBP, OPS, WAR, etc.
    It is way too early to evaluate Harper's HOF chances, but he sometimes looks like the second coming of Mickey Mantle. There was an intersting article on Harper in the 5/1/13 issue of The Wall Street Journal, page D6. Great attitude, great grasp of the game and where he is.Rather than take slow home run trots Harper is about the fastest player going around the bases when he goes yard. He is quoted as referencing Pete Rose: "He always ran around the bases as fast as he could and got back to the dugout."
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