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Thread: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

  1. #31
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Harper supposedly grew up as a Reds fan in Nevada somehow. Hmm ...

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  3. #32
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I will give Votto a 50% chance and I will give Harper a 55% chance of making the Hall of Fame.
    Ooooh... I like the idea of numbers.

    I think Votto has a 20% chance and Harper is more like a 50/50.

    Votto has to either get better....which is hard to see....or he has to start playing in New York ....which is hard to see.....or he has to stay healthy for a very, very long time.

    As much as I would like to see Votto have a hall of fame career, I think I'll settle for him being the best first baseman the reds have ever had which I think is a pretty easy target for him to hit at this point.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  4. #33
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Harper supposedly grew up as a Reds fan in Nevada somehow. Hmm ...
    Statistically very few reds fans make it into the HOF....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  6. #34
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    This is a great question.

    If the current selection process does not change, I think Harper has a better chance. Let's face it, Harper already has more fame/recognition than Votto does.
    Others have made good points on Harper, but when a player is popular/famous the stat thresholds for him are lowered. Example.. If Kenny Lofton played for the Yankees instead of the Indians, I bet he wouldn't have dropped off the HOF ballot in his first year.

    If we are going by merit and pure numbers, I would say Votto has a much better chance, because he's already producing at MVP level. Even though this level of production may not continue, he's done it. As others have said, plenty of young players come up, make a splash, are considered surefire HOFer -- many go on to have nice careers but don't really dominate.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  7. #35
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    If it's one over the other Harper definitely has a better chance. That said I think they'll both end up there unless something serious happens or there's some kind of weird regression.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  8. #36
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Statistically very few reds fans make it into the HOF....
    Really? I've been there multiple times. You guys should go!!!!
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #37
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    I'll take Votto....just because he has done it for several years already. Nothing against Harper, he is an AMAZING talent, but how many times have we seen Wunderkinds flame out early on?

  10. #38
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    clown question, bro.
    Hacktastic: The Story of the 2014 Cincinnati Reds

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  12. #39
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Harper and it is not close. He has the ability to miss several seasons and still put up big time counting stats. Joey Votto simply doesn't have that luxury. Then or course is the whole position thing, where Votto is going to be compared to a much greater group of hitters because he is a first baseman.

  13. #40
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    There are 18 first basemen in the Hall of Fame, depending on how you count guys like Tony Perez.

  14. #41
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I'm not offended at all. But like another poster touched on, there have been hundreds of phenoms people thought were locks for the HOF who never came close. We're a month into the season. Let's see if he can adjust when pitchers adjust to him.

    And please quote the part of my post that said you can't talk about whatever the heck you want to. If Harper puts together full seasons like he's playing now, maybe I'll even agree with you.
    The following players had more WAR than Bryce Harper in their age 19 season:

    The end.


    THe following players had more WAR than Bryce Harper thorough their age 20 seasons: Mike Trout, Mel Ott, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Mickey Mantle.

    Harper is 1 month in to his age 20 season. There have not been hundreds of phenoms like Bryce Harper.

    I'd put his HOF chances under 50%, so don't get me wrong. But Harper is not just this year's phenom. He has just over 1 full season's worth of PA under his belt and it's been just productive than any of Votto's best seasons. And he's 9 year's younger.

    I get your concern regarding whether or not he's really this good. But when the scouting reports are off the charts, the production is excellent and there's nothing fluky about the way he's been putting up numbers, that says something. THere's no such thing as a sure thing. But there's virtually nothing closer to a sure thing than Bryce Harper.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-03-2013 at 10:21 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #42
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Harper and it is not close. He has the ability to miss several seasons and still put up big time counting stats. Joey Votto simply doesn't have that luxury. Then or course is the whole position thing, where Votto is going to be compared to a much greater group of hitters because he is a first baseman.
    This.

  16. #43
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    At this point?

    Clearly Votto, based on the fact that he already has a substantial body of work behind him. We know what kind of player Votto is. Harper is still a question mark. Is he the 850 OPS guy that his career stats indicate, or is he the 1000+ OPS guy that his 2013 stats indicate?

    That said, in three or four years Harper will probably have the better case. Once he establishes a level of performance, his age will be a major factor in his favor. He will have nearly five years worth of stats stacked up by the time he is the same age Votto was when he made his MLB debut. If Harper could have 100-150 HR head start on Joey by the time he is 24.

  17. #44
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    At this point?

    Clearly Votto, based on the fact that he already has a substantial body of work behind him. We know what kind of player Votto is. Harper is still a question mark. Is he the 850 OPS guy that his career stats indicate, or is he the 1000+ OPS guy that his 2013 stats indicate?

    That said, in three or four years Harper will probably have the better case. Once he establishes a level of performance, his age will be a major factor in his favor. He will have nearly five years worth of stats stacked up by the time he is the same age Votto was when he made his MLB debut. If Harper could have 100-150 HR head start on Joey by the time he is 24.
    Based upon their bodies of work, Harper projects more like a HOFer.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #45
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: better chance at cooperstown...votto or

    I said Votto but I am fine with people who say Harper. (I'm outnumbered big time I realize)

    A big factor in choosing Harper is his headstart on Votto, which is true.

    That said, what if the question is Jay Bruce vs Votto? This doesn't relate to the initial question but am wondering if anyone can make a case for Jay.


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