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Thread: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

  1. #91
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    He's now on pace to hit into 25-30 double plays this year, which for a no-hit player is absolutely devastating to an offense. There's plenty of (deserved) criticism for the overuse of the sacrifice bunt among the stathead community, but for a guy like him it should be a no-brainer that every time Choo leads off with a single, he should be bunting.
    No hit player? He's on pace for 22 HRs and probably 60+ RBI.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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  3. #92
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    I thought making contact was desireable...manly double plays are MUCH better than wussie Ks, right?

  4. #93
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I thought making contact was desireable...manly double plays are MUCH better than wussie Ks, right?
    I'll take GIDP over Ks. Last year Cozart had 102 more of the latter than the former. Even the mlb leader in GIDP only had 28.

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    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I'll take GIDP over Ks.
    Seriously? You'd rather the offense make 2 outs than 1?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    redsfandan (05-06-2013)

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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    He's now on pace to hit into 25-30 double plays this year, which for a no-hit player is absolutely devastating to an offense. There's plenty of (deserved) criticism for the overuse of the sacrifice bunt among the stathead community, but for a guy like him it should be a no-brainer that every time Choo leads off with a single, he should be bunting.
    I think we need to take a step back on Cozart.

    Last year and in the minors, he had an uppercut swing and popped up too many balls.

    IMO the Reds are coaching him to hit more pitches on the ground. A more balanced hitting approach. So far it hasn't worked out.

    Cozart's line drive rate is very low this year. He may also still be hurt from the April 20 bunt attempt, or was hurt for some time thereafter.

    Bottom line, I'd give him time. I'd much rather see XMan in the two hole, but I think Cozart will hit better and soon.

  8. #96
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Seriously? You'd rather the offense make 2 outs than 1?
    Yes, I'll take Cozart's 11 GIDP from last year over his 113 Ks. You mean you wouldn't?

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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Yes, I'll take Cozart's 11 GIDP from last year over his 113 Ks. You mean you wouldn't?
    Well, the only grounding into 11 double plays are more of a result of him leading off a lot. So all in all, neither stat tells me anything.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  10. #98
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Well, the only grounding into 11 double plays are more of a result of him leading off a lot. So all in all, neither stat tells me anything.
    The MLB leader in GIDP from last year, Miguel Cabrera, had only 28. That should tell you that hitters GIDP far, far, far less than they strike out. Last year the Reds had 1,266 strikeouts. They hit into 100 double plays. That should tell you the same thing.

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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    The MLB leader in GIDP from last year, Miguel Cabrera, had only 28. That should tell you that hitters GIDP far, far, far less than they strike out. Last year the Reds had 1,266 strikeouts. They hit into 100 double plays. That should tell you the same thing.
    And I'm telling you on any given play that if I'd rather my team make one outs or two, I'd rather them only make one. You only get 27 outs a game, they're precious.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    redsfandan (05-06-2013)

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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    The MLB leader in GIDP from last year, Miguel Cabrera, had only 28. That should tell you that hitters GIDP far, far, far less than they strike out. Last year the Reds had 1,266 strikeouts. They hit into 100 double plays. That should tell you the same thing.
    But what are the strikeouts replaced with if a team reduces them? And what are the DP's replaced with if a team reduces them? It's far more complicated than you are making it out to be.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    RedlegJake (05-05-2013)

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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    reduce strikeouts and increase GIDP with more ground balls. Generally decrease power and also reduce walks. BABIP remains equal so the result would be the same overall numbers or maybe worse if the batter was swinging at strikes out of his best hitting zones(which ML pitchers unfairly try to do) which means a lot of weakly hit balls more than when just striking out which after all may mean BABIP decreases rather than being equal. Of course I keep forgetting if they'd just make contact ... mybe they should all just choke up and go all Wee Willie...it being so easy to hit it where they ain't...

    Sometimes strikeouts matter. Man on 3d 1 out a K hurts. 95% of the time they are bad simply because they are outs. No other reason. You'll never convince me otherwise. Cozart is slumping not because of his strikeouts but because his line drive rate is abysmal right now and his gb rate is astronomical when he does make contact. That's the problem, NOT the Ks.

  16. #102
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    RedlegJake, you need to go to the last page of the Bruce K's thread and look at a series of posts by myself and Atomic someone or other. He posted a chart with run expectations of each possible event that can happen given any of the 24 combinations of baserunners and outs.

    Of the 24 possible situations, Ks vs. all other outs were only equal when there were either 2 outs (8 situations) or no runners on base (2 situations). That leaves 14 situations where there are runners on base and less than 2 outs. In 11 of them, balls put in play for outs were overwhelming preferable to Ks.

  17. #103
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    Re: How Much More Rope Do You Give Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    No hit player? He's on pace for 22 HRs and probably 60+ RBI.
    Well of course nobody on a major league roster is literally a NO-hit player. He has 23 hits in 129 plate appearances for a robust 2.00 runs created per 27 outs. To put this in perspective, of the 184 MLB players who qualify, he's 177th. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...pe/sabermetric

    Last year, he was 126th out of 143 (3.89 rc/27). In other words, even if he were to double his current output, he would still suck. A lot.

    This is a good organization. The Jocketty regime has repeatedly surprised me by making things work that I didn't think would work (Homer Bailey becoming good; Broxton being a plus reliever in last year's stretch drive; Alfredo Simon being useful; Arroyo not being finished a couple years ago). Maybe they have some grand plan for Cozart involving hitting more line drives or whatever.

    But let's not kid ourselves. The results so far have been bad. Bad. bad. bad. Put a league average shortstop on this team, and there's a significant chance it's in first place.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids


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