Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 62

Thread: I think we've found our new closer

  1. #31
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,073

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by Gallen5862 View Post
    This thread can be salvaged. Does anyone see JJ Hoover as a future closer?
    No
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
    -Beano Cook

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Titletown, FL
    Posts
    3,851

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    No
    Disagree. Don't see any way he could be as dominant as Chapman but he could realistically be a league-average closer.
    Founder and Ruling Elite of the Derrick Robinson Fan Club. Limited amount of memberships available.

  4. #33
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    San Jose
    Posts
    1,169

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Yes. He could put up similar numbers as Chapman ... without throwing 100 mph. .
    In what alternate universe?

  5. #34
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    (I'm hoping) the point of the debated comment here was that Hoover's save percentage would probably be pretty close to Chapman's save percentage.

    Without having the numbers in front of me, I remember hearing that Coco's save percentage as a Red is very comparable to Chapman's.

    The point is, an absolute nails closer like Chapman isn't that much more valuable than an above average, or even a serviceable closer.

  6. Likes:

    RedEye (05-05-2013), redsfandan (05-06-2013), RiverRat13 (05-06-2013)

  7. #35
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,341

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    (I'm hoping) the point of the debated comment here was that Hoover's save percentage would probably be pretty close to Chapman's save percentage.

    Without having the numbers in front of me, I remember hearing that Coco's save percentage as a Red is very comparable to Chapman's.

    The point is, an absolute nails closer like Chapman isn't that much more valuable than an above average, or even a serviceable closer.
    Off the top of my head, Weathers had 6 blown saves his last year, Coco had either 5 or 6 bs all of his years, and Chapman had 5 last year. Not saying Weathers or Coco were anywhere near as automatic in their saves as Chapman was; but the end results were not much different.

  8. Likes:

    redsfandan (05-06-2013)

  9. #36
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,931

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    (I'm hoping) the point of the debated comment here was that Hoover's save percentage would probably be pretty close to Chapman's save percentage.

    Without having the numbers in front of me, I remember hearing that Coco's save percentage as a Red is very comparable to Chapman's.

    The point is, an absolute nails closer like Chapman isn't that much more valuable than an above average, or even a serviceable closer.
    Actually, the point is that save percentage is a lousy stat to evaluate anyone, including a closer. Too many easy ones, and too many important innings that aren't save situations.

    I have no doubt Hoover would put up similar save numbers as Chapman. I actually think LeCure would too. But neither would be as overall effective as Chapman in terms if helping the Reds win games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  10. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (05-05-2013)

  11. #37
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,072

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Actually, the point is that save percentage is a lousy stat to evaluate anyone, including a closer. Too many easy ones, and too many important innings that aren't save situations.

    I have no doubt Hoover would put up similar save numbers as Chapman. I actually think LeCure would too. But neither would be as overall effective as Chapman in terms if helping the Reds win games.
    Unlike every other position in the bullpen, the runs that a closer gives up that don't give up the lead simply don't matter.

  12. Likes:

    Norm Chortleton (05-05-2013)

  13. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,554

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    No

    Hoover could easily be a closer some day.

    I could see him being our closer next year if Chapman is moved to the rotation.

  14. Likes:

    757690 (05-05-2013), TheBigLebowski (05-05-2013)

  15. #39
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    2,701

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    During the broadcast, they showed Chapman (sitting next to Simon, I think), shivering his butt off. Lesson learned: Chapman does not pitch when it's cold.
    Or give him an extra thick wool uniform?

  16. #40
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Actually, the point is that save percentage is a lousy stat to evaluate anyone, including a closer. Too many easy ones, and too many important innings that aren't save situations.

    I have no doubt Hoover would put up similar save numbers as Chapman. I actually think LeCure would too. But neither would be as overall effective as Chapman in terms if helping the Reds win games.
    Overall, with the way roles are currently defined, what actually matters is how often a closer converts his opportunity to close out the other team.

    The point was that Hoover would likely convert around as many save opportunities as Chapman. Not saying they are equal pitchers obviously, or that there peripherals wouldn't be vastly different, I'm just pointing out that a valuable closer really isn't that valuable.

  17. #41
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,491

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Actually, the point is that save percentage is a lousy stat to evaluate anyone, including a closer. Too many easy ones, and too many important innings that aren't save situations.

    I have no doubt Hoover would put up similar save numbers as Chapman. I actually think LeCure would too. But neither would be as overall effective as Chapman in terms if helping the Reds win games.
    It's a lousy stat to evaluate talent, sure, but it's actually quite relevant in that even the weaker pitchers still wind up closing games at a similar rate. That indicates that the advantage of having your best pitcher(s) as a closer isn't all that great.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that close % is a good measure of a pitcher's ability. They're only using it to show that even average relievers wind up getting the job done at a similar rate. In the course of 50 save opportunities, the difference between the best closers in baseball and very mediocre closers is only about 6-7 additional saves.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  18. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,722

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It's a lousy stat to evaluate talent, sure, but it's actually quite relevant in that even the weaker pitchers still wind up closing games at a similar rate. That indicates that the advantage of having your best pitcher(s) as a closer isn't all that great.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that close % is a good measure of a pitcher's ability. They're only using it to show that even average relievers wind up getting the job done at a similar rate. In the course of 50 save opportunities, the difference between the best closers in baseball and very mediocre closers is only about 6-7 additional saves.
    But isn't 6 or 7 extra saves a pretty big deal? Wouldn't that translate to several more wins? Last season, Joey Votto had a WAR of 5.6. So your saying the difference is the same as the difference between Joey Votto and a replacement player?

    I actually don't think it's that much, but if it is, then it is a big deal. A huge deal in fact.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (05-05-2013)

  20. #43
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,931

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Overall, with the way roles are currently defined, what actually matters is how often a closer converts his opportunity to close out the other team.

    The point was that Hoover would likely convert around as many save opportunities as Chapman. Not saying they are equal pitchers obviously, or that there peripherals wouldn't be vastly different, I'm just pointing out that a valuable closer really isn't that valuable.
    I completely agree that Dusty's handling of the pen makes the point moot.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  21. #44
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,491

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    But isn't 6 or 7 extra saves a pretty big deal? Wouldn't that translate to several more wins? Last season, Joey Votto had a WAR of 5.6. So your saying the difference is the same as the difference between Joey Votto and a replacement player?

    I actually don't think it's that much, but if it is, then it is a big deal. A huge deal in fact.
    Among players that hold on to their jobs, it's not quite that much of a difference. But compared to the bottom quartile of closers that are typically rotated out of their jobs (whom I would consider 'replacement level'), it's roughly 95% compared to 80% (ish).

    We can't assume that all of those games would be lost, though. After all, giving up a pair of runs with a 2-run lead is a blown save, but that's not to say your team doesn't win the game in the bottom of the 9th or in extras. If you assume three losses and three wins, then one could look at it as a closer being three wins above replacement.

    Last year, there were 30 pitchers that had more than 3 WAR as starters with Verlander being 7 WAR.

    I'm not suggesting 6-7 saves isn't a big deal. But I'm suggesting it's not as big a difference between the best starters and their replacements.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  22. #45
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    4,716

    Re: I think we've found our new closer

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Hoover could easily be a closer some day.

    I could see him being our closer next year if Chapman is moved to the rotation.
    That is one hell of an indictment of Broxton.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25