If the Reds win central...

[DWS1125]

If the Reds win the Central they will have to rely on help from other teams beating the Cardinals. They can't beat them on the Road, they can't beat them at Home. Record since 2010 24W 30L. 11-19 on the Road.
Not even counting the first two years under Dusty. It wouldn't be fair. Here's another nugget. The players change, no Pujols, No Carpenter for two years, One year without Wainwright and Tony Larussa is retired. They still have OWNAGE. you can see why people don't want Dusty as manager! You can't tell me this Reds team on paper isn't better than StL. Why does this team grab players out of the scrap pile and continue to beat us? This is not ok in my eyes and never should be excepted. I don't care about winning the Division if your rival sneaks in playoffs and advance further than you every year.

[DWS1125]

With Dusty's best year as a Reds manager last year 97 wins, and 2003 his best year as Cubs manager. Both years he had a losing record against the Cardinals

[Old school 1983]

Look at the cardinals lineup. At the heart if their order is Beltran holiday and Craig. I'd hardly call them scrap heap guys. Follow that by a clutch hitting Molina and freese who both, in RISP situations try to stay within their game and put the ball in play. Also when they lose a guy in pujols, they go and replace him with Beltran, a proven performer, instead of praying to the baseball gods that one of their guys step up. Also in player development, if a player like Colby Rasmus, who has all the potential and talent in the world, doesn't meet the mold of what they want, they ship him out for pieces that will help them win and go with John jay in center who has less potential than rasmus but fits into the cardinals approach and plans better.

Even their staff, carpenter and wainwright are studs period. They've counted on them. So looking at it, they have scrap heap guys but the players they depend in are far from scrap heap.

Fast forward to the reds. Heart of the reds order votto, then it was supposed to be ludwick. Yes I know he had a great year last year, but the reds are depending on a scrap heap guy to be the 4 guy? They've done this for years. And even in the 5 hole instead of getting a consistent performer they pray that this will be the year Bruce becomes consistent and puts it together. And our secondary guys are hackers. Look at Frazier. Little to no plate discipline. Phillips does a great job. I can't knock him. And even looking at prospect development. We have Stubbs. We beat him like a dead horse in the lineup for three years hoping he pans out. By the time we decide to let him go, he's a throw in in a trade. Don't think for a second that we got choo for him. We got choo for DiDi. So may e the reds need to look less at upside and more at what can this player do to help the team win. And build a solid lineup around the core. In the years one if our scrap heap guys bust out and bat 4 2010 and 2012, the team busts out. Why not take a page out of the cards book and build a solid core out if proven performers.

I know the idea of trading for Headley has been floated here. To me it sounds like the kind of move they'd do to win. They wouldn't care if freese took a lesser role. Whereas the reds fans that I've seen comment on it on here are worried about giving up on Frazier, an averagish starter with at most an average glove, or worry about giving up prospects in the omg I know zach Stewart will win the cy young line of thinking. You know what if a trade for Headley meant a real run at the series this year and next idc if the prospect we'd give up wins the MVP or cy young the next 15 years.

[RedlegJake]

I am sorry but I hate hand wringing whiney why aren't we the Cards posts...

[Old school 1983]

I am sorry but I hate hand wringing whiney why aren't we the Cards posts...

It's not whiney. It's a pretty honest evaluation of why their lineup offensively is superior to ours head to head. I could write the complete opposite when it comes to building a stellar pitching staff and bullpen. We have them beat all day everyday and twice on Sundays. Sometimes it's good to take a look at your opponents and see what they do well in comparison to you. As far as the cardinals go it is building a lineup from its core, placing disciplined experienced hitters there, developing experienced disciplined hitters and honestly pulling trades that put their style of players in a lineup rather than going with plus talent. I think there was a serious level of luck with the cards winning it all in 2011, but at the same time it wasn't the same team that was around average during the regular season. They made moves that improved the team and let go of players that were a detriment no matter how much upside they had.

[DavidMemphis]

I understand the 'concerns', but I also understand that there are 162 games in the baseball season. Last year, through May 3, we sat at .500 (12-12), 3.5 games behind the cardinals. This year, through May 3, we sit at 16-14, 2.5 games behind the cardinals, with the bucs and the brew crew in the mix. Last year, we all had houston to beat up on. Last year, we were healthy at this time. THIS year, we have lost our starting LF, our 'starting' C, our ace SP, and went through the month of April with one of the toughest schedules in MLB. It's early, folks, WAYYYY early. These guys WILL hit, and when they do, with our starting pitching and bullpen, I see a great season ahead of us. I'm not against making a move for the right guy in the right situation, but I don't want to give up a valued prospect, or Jay Bruce, for a player that may only be here one year (in the case of Choo, we simply HAD to have a competent leadoff man - in fact I wanted them to pull the trigger on that deal last year). It's a long season, in baseball more than any other sport, things have a way of bearing out the way they should - meaning the better teams rise to the top in the long haul. The cards bullpen will be costly to them in that long haul, and they are not as good as us defensively (save Choo in CF - still say we should switch he and Bruce). We are the best team in the division, and will win the division. It's what we do after that, that will define our season.

[Old school 1983]

I understand the 'concerns', but I also understand that there are 162 games in the baseball season. Last year, through May 3, we sat at .500 (12-12), 3.5 games behind the cardinals. This year, through May 3, we sit at 16-14, 2.5 games behind the cardinals, with the bucs and the brew crew in the mix. Last year, we all had houston to beat up on. Last year, we were healthy at this time. THIS year, we have lost our starting LF, our 'starting' C, our ace SP, and went through the month of April with one of the toughest schedules in MLB. It's early, folks, WAYYYY early. These guys WILL hit, and when they do, with our starting pitching and bullpen, I see a great season ahead of us. I'm not against making a move for the right guy in the right situation, but I don't want to give up a valued prospect, or Jay Bruce, for a player that may only be here one year (in the case of Choo, we simply HAD to have a competent leadoff man - in fact I wanted them to pull the trigger on that deal last year). It's a long season, in baseball more than any other sport, things have a way of bearing out the way they should - meaning the better teams rise to the top in the long haul. The cards bullpen will be costly to them in that long haul, and they are not as good as us defensively (save Choo in CF - still say we should switch he and Bruce). We are the best team in the division, and will win the division. It's what we do after that, that will define our season.

I know it's very early. I'd never trade Bruce for a guy that would only be a rental. But Frazier, yes I would. I was comparing how the reds vs the cards handled a giy who was takented but a detriment. Stubbs v Rasmus. Bruce is a higher caliber than both if those guys. I just woukdnt say all prospects are open to being traded. Thats bad baseball. But if i was offered teo years of headley, a liece i believe completes this team, id alomst consider any prospect aside from hamilton and stephenson. Maybe cingrani delending in the health of the staff. I know it's early and I know this teams hitting will pick up. I'm pretty confident the reds will win the central if not be right there at the end. That's not what has me concerned. I'm concerned that when the longball isn't flying, this team has some serious issues scoring runs against above average pitching. If it was just a product of early in the year April stuff this season I'd be jumping the gun. But it's not. I've seen basically the same core of players have the same issue since 2010.

[DWS1125]

Berkman at the time cardinals signed him was on downside of career, reds could have signed a player like beltran but choosed ludwick, Pujols best player in league lost him and kept on moving forward. world series in 07-11 with tommy john to carpenter and wainwright..almost went last year if they didn't have a epic fail. carpenter missed with nerve damage. Won in 2011 with closer by committee. with players scrap relievers..remember Octivo Dotel??! Really? guess it was the rally squirrel

[Old school 1983]

Berkman at the time cardinals signed him was on downside of career, reds could have signed a player like beltran but choosed ludwick, Pujols best player in league lost him and kept on moving forward. world series in 07-11 with tommy john to carpenter and wainwright..almost went last year if they didn't have a epic fail. carpenter missed with nerve damage. Won in 2011 with closer by committee. with players scrap relievers..remember Octivo Dotel??! Really? guess it was the rally squirrel

Like I said the cards could definitely learn a few things about building a staff from the reds. They rode their stud pitchers hard that year and while Dotel was at the end at one point he was nasty with the Astros. It may be luck but he had just enough left in the tank. And I really wanted the reds to sign berkman or Beltran. I think they could have taught the reds you g hitters tons about discipline and approach as well as contribute to the team

[DWS1125]

I think Cardinals have better scouting on the major league level than the Reds mostly, because they have an idea of how they want the team to be constructed...But the Reds have a better scouting in the amateur levels. That has been the difference.

[CardsFanBob]

I think Cardinals have better scouting on the major league level than the Reds mostly, because they have an idea of how they want the team to be constructed...But the Reds have a better scouting in the amateur levels. That has been the difference.

The Reds have have had a solid production from their minor leagues, but so have the Cardinals... and they currently have the #1 ranked minor league system in baseball.

I mean, position player wise: Craig, Descalso, Carpenter, Kozma, Jay, Adams, and Molina were all drafted by the Cards. Freese was acquired in a trade as a minor leaguer, and didn't come to the bigs until several years later.

Pitchers: Miller, Lynn, Garcia, and Rosenthal were draft picks. Wainwright was acquired as a minor leaguer.

The Cardinals are hardly the franchise they were under Walt Jocketty, where he pieced together great teams with free agents and trades... and maybe one or two home grown guys.

Like I said the cards could definitely learn a few things about building a staff from the reds. They rode their stud pitchers hard that year and while Dotel was at the end at one point he was nasty with the Astros. It may be luck but he had just enough left in the tank. And I really wanted the reds to sign berkman or Beltran. I think they could have taught the reds you g hitters tons about discipline and approach as well as contribute to the team

You guys had an outstanding staff last year. And they look solid this year. But to demean the Cardinals ability to build a staff is silly. They're far and away the best staff in baseball right now... with four of the five being guys that have ascended from their minor leagues.

If there's anything the Cardinals have done well since 2000, it's pitch... thanks to Dave Duncan and now Derek Lilliquest.

[DavidMemphis]

No way in the world would I trade Cingrani - superior left handed starting pitchers do not grow on trees, and I believe this guy has all the tools to be that for a long time. Its early, and he WILL take his lumps, but again, these guys dont grow on trees (heck, he was the first starting LH for us since when? a while ago). One point i will agree on, though I don't think it's an issue exclusive to our Reds. Except for some (Votto's of the world), hitters these days simply don't mind striking out as much. You rarely see them choke up with 2 strikes like players customarily did in previous eras. BP is a perfect example of this - he's one of my favorite players, but with 2 strikes, he doesn't choke up at all to shorten his swing and defend the plate to put the ball in play - he still seemingly is swinging for the fences, not seeming to care that the risk of striking out is much higher by taking this approach. Again, this is not exclusive to the Reds, but a league-wide trend in my opinion. These days, save very few, the guys with the most home runs usually are way up there in strike outs as well.

[Old school 1983]

No way in the world would I trade Cingrani - superior left handed starting pitchers do not grow on trees, and I believe this guy has all the tools to be that for a long time. Its early, and he WILL take his lumps, but again, these guys dont grow on trees (heck, he was the first starting LH for us since when? a while ago). One point i will agree on, though I don't think it's an issue exclusive to our Reds. Except for some (Votto's of the world), hitters these days simply don't mind striking out as much. You rarely see them choke up with 2 strikes like players customarily did in previous eras. BP is a perfect example of this - he's one of my favorite players, but with 2 strikes, he doesn't choke up at all to shorten his swing and defend the plate to put the ball in play - he still seemingly is swinging for the fences, not seeming to care that the risk of striking out is much higher by taking this approach. Again, this is not exclusive to the Reds, but a league-wide trend in my opinion. These days, save very few, the guys with the most home runs usually are way up there in strike outs as well.

I definitely don't "want" to trade cingrani. If the perfect deal came along it'd consider. But it'd have to be near perfect. As far as reds pitchers go, I honestly see cueto as kind if the one piece that could bring large returns that I'd consider moving. I think he's maxed out talent wise where as everyone else is continuing to get better. That said a maxed out cueto is a great thing to have. As far as reds trades go, the whole don't be afraid to trade a guy thing wasn't aimed at Bruce. In 2010 the sexy trade topic was cliff lee. At that point the reds would have to experience a minor miracle to win it all. Good call to hold off and save talent. Last year is what burned me. The reds had a legit shot at a title. If I remember correctly I heard they turned down a trade of ondrusek for victorino. Idk why. Ondrusek is a nice piece but he's on the fringe of the roster. Victorino may have been a rental, but he could have been the rental to get the reds over the top. I think to get the level of player the reds should go after to take them over the top this year may be more pricey. Walt shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger this year. Offseason 2010 and the 2011 season taught us to improve in the offseason. May e 2012 will teach us to improve at the deadline like the cards did in 2011 and the giants did last year.

I completely agree with you on the strikeout issue. I cringed every time BP let loose on a 2 strike pitch. I do the same when I see Bruce and Frazier do it now. But so far this season is see BP adjusting his approach a little so I have to give him credit for that. Honestly I see Bruce trying to do the same and spray the ball more. It's failing right now but I can really see him taking off it it all clicks.

[Beltway]

I keep seeing people talk about how difficult the Reds schedule has been so far this season, but I'm not seeing the difficulty. This team has played more home games than road (16 to 14) and has the 26th highest SOS. Contrast that with the Cardinals who have the 3rd highest SOS and have played more road games than home (12 to 17). I'm not implying anything with these numbers. I'm just kind of tired of people saying the Reds have had a difficult schedule. According to the numbers, they haven't.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

[DavidMemphis]

I keep seeing people talk about how difficult the Reds schedule has been so far this season, but I'm not seeing the difficulty. This team has played more home games than road (16 to 14) and has the 26th highest SOS. Contrast that with the Cardinals who have the 3rd highest SOS and have played more road games than home (12 to 17). I'm not implying anything with these numbers. I'm just kind of tired of people saying the Reds have had a difficult schedule. According to the numbers, they haven't.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

I get what you are saying, but I am going by what is on paper and what should (and probably will) pan out. Not by numbers from a very small sample size of this season. Perfect example is the Angels. They are much better than their record (in my opinion of course). When you look at the teams we have faced (angels, nats, cards, only to name a few), our schedule is much easier down the road than it was in April. To take a sample size of what has happened thus far, I do not believe is an accurate way to dispill how 'good' a team is.