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Thread: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

  1. #211
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by ajswartz888 View Post
    Or the Cardinals. They have won as may WS as the Giants lately. And are doing very well this year.
    I realize something similar to this gets said likely nearly every season (as of recent seasons, at least), but I truly do think that the Cards will begin regressing to at least some degree relatively soon. With both Westbrook & especially Garcia going down (add Gast to that list now as well), I would think they are BOUND to see at least SOME regression. I realize that their young arms have stepped up and have been doing a great job thus far (Shelby Miller looks fantastic), but it's a long, long season and I just can not help but think that they are due to hit some bumps in the road relatively soon.

    Then again, OTOH, that team is like the freakin' little engine that could. Guy goes down, they replace him & said replacement puts up great numbers. Whether one wants to label that as "luck" or they simply bring these young guys up with a very dominant "winning mentality" that said guys are able to translate over into on-field success, I don't know. Honestly, I think it's the latter. Awfully, awfully hard for me to consider much of anything that the Cardinals do as merely "luck" when they seem to be able to replicate these sort of things year after year.

    Having said all of that, I DO however, think that we will see at least SOME degree of regression from the winning tear that they have been on thus far this season. We'll see where they stand come the All-Star break. Will also be interesting to see if Chris Carpenter does indeed make a comeback to the bullpen and if so, how well he does. Apparently, his bullpen sessions have looked very good thus far. If he comes back and dominates out of the pen, it certainly will not surprise me. Of course, neither would the opposite.

    I think the Cards AND the Pirates are going to hang around and be legit threats for the duration of the season. But if I HAD to make a prediction right now, I predict the Cards will regress just enough for us to move into 1st place by the All-Star break. I honestly feel as though we should win the central yet again this season. And to be completely honest, it would not surprise me in the least if BOTH wildcards were to come out of the central (Cards/Pirates). I know many feel as though they have been hoodwinked by the Pirates for the last 2 seasons and feel as though they are going to end up being essentially "fools gold" for the 3rd season in a row, but I do not. I think they are finally legit and will remain that way over the course of the entire season. I'm not 100% sold (yet) on them making the playoffs, but I DO feel as though they will finally pull off their first .500-plus season since 1992.

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  3. #212
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I guess I'm not understanding the idea of regression for the Cardinals considering that they've already one of the toughest schedules in baseball and that their schedule becomes a bit easier in terms of strength of teams faced.
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  4. #213
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    Re: Cardinals due to experience "some regression"

    Westbrook out for who knows how long and Garcia lost for the season. Sounds awful, no?

    But Westbrook has been league average since we got him. He started off great this year, but he tends to do that every year and then fall flat on his face. And Garcia, while he possesses great stuff, is a head case. If the blueberries don't float right on his cereal he's in a bad mood the rest of the day and pitches like crap. If someone makes an error behind him he tends to fall apart. We've seen this year after year from him.

    There could be worse things than replacing these guys with hungry, up and coming rookies. The Cards have had seven rookies pitch for them so far. And here are the results in 13 starts and 40 relief appearances: 118 innings pitched, a 12-4 record and a 2.59 ERA. A lot of that is Shelby Miller. But the others have been pretty good too. Seth Maness is a ground ball machine who has induced 6 double plays in a little over 11 innings. Trevor Rosenthal is blowing away hitters with 98-100 mph heat. He throws a changeup - at 90 mph.

    They just sent Carlos Martinez back to the minors. Not because he pitched bad. To get him stretched out to start instead of working out of the pen.

    In the meantime, it appears likely that Michael Wacha will take Gast's turn in the rotation. I don't know how long he'll last in the majors. They didn't want to bring him up so soon. He'll probably just hold the fort until Martinez is ready to come back and start.

    So Garcia is to be replaced by a combination of Gast, Wacha and Martinez. And Westbrook, for as long as he's out, by lefty Tyler Lyons, who was very impressive in his first start.

    Another thing to consider. The Cards have amassed their current great W/L record with virtually no production from David Freese, and down years from Matt Holliday and Jon Jay. Freese and Jay have begun to right themselves of late. If Holliday ever gets going, the run production will start to look like we expected it would.
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  5. #214
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I don't see true regression for the Cards. They won't win at this pace all season but neither will Cincy or Pittsburgh. What this season does is reload the Cards from their deep system which will put the farm on a similar trajectory as the Reds...most of the best prospects next year will be low level guys. Bot deep in players 2-3 years away. The Cards infusion this year will make them younger and less expensive able to pursue a major key piece in the off season. They have hitters that are slumping so far and should get better as hot weather arrives. That should help them negotiate the almost certain regression of their starters (c'mon you really expect a season long starters era under 3?). That pitching regression though is not going to be a tumble off a cliff. Reds fans and Cards fans both need to look at the other and realize both teams are good...both have substitution answers...both have balance with few glaring holes if any. This is fun and its going to be a dogfight all summer long. I just don't see Pitt having enough offensive juice to hang at the top but I see them alone in third...a pesty hornet buzzing around behind the leaders. The Reds better hurry up and improve against SL and Pitt head to head cause that may be the difference.

  6. #215
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I guess I'm not understanding the idea of regression for the Cardinals considering that they've already one of the toughest schedules in baseball and that their schedule becomes a bit easier in terms of strength of teams faced.
    Well Mike, the truth of the matter is, if I could truly see the future, I wouldn't be posting on RZ right now. I would be out blowing my Powerball lotto fortune(s).

    I am simply making a prediction that the pitching will regress to some degree. Same could very well happen to the Reds and cancel out any benefit that the Reds could derive from any such regression by the Cards. And no one knows if or when (heaven forbid) another ugly injury (or injuries) could rear its ugly head to one of (or both) teams?

    At the end of the day, that is a large degree of what these forums are essentially based upon. From the most knowledgeable sabermetric stat hound to the more plain-jane fan, none of us truly know how things are going to turn out by seasons end (how boring would THAT be)? Take a handful of the most knowledgeable baseball minds on Earth and I'm not sure a single one of 'em would have predicted in early Sept. of 2011 that the St. Louis Cardinals were not only going to make the playoffs, but also win another World Series.

    But that's the fun of it...the reason they play the games. All 162 of them.

  7. #216
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I don't see true regression for the Cards. They won't win at this pace all season but neither will Cincy or Pittsburgh. What this season does is reload the Cards from their deep system which will put the farm on a similar trajectory as the Reds...most of the best prospects next year will be low level guys. Bot deep in players 2-3 years away. The Cards infusion this year will make them younger and less expensive able to pursue a major key piece in the off season. They have hitters that are slumping so far and should get better as hot weather arrives. That should help them negotiate the almost certain regression of their starters (c'mon you really expect a season long starters era under 3?). That pitching regression though is not going to be a tumble off a cliff. Reds fans and Cards fans both need to look at the other and realize both teams are good...both have substitution answers...both have balance with few glaring holes if any. This is fun and its going to be a dogfight all summer long. I just don't see Pitt having enough offensive juice to hang at the top but I see them alone in third...a pesty hornet buzzing around behind the leaders. The Reds better hurry up and improve against SL and Pitt head to head cause that may be the difference.
    I can't agree more about the improving head to head against St. Louis. It may very well be the difference.

  8. #217
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Listening to Don out here on Fox Sports LA. He even called them lucky...with "Balls being blooped and falling in all weekend." It was very funny how he even agrees with us.

  9. #218
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    The schedule only gets easier for the Cardinals folks. The Reds have played the Marlins and the Cubs 17 times. The Cards only 2. What comes around goes around.

  10. #219
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by ajswartz888 View Post
    The schedule only gets easier for the Cardinals folks. The Reds have played the Marlins and the Cubs 17 times. The Cards only 2. What comes around goes around.
    And the Cards have played 7 more home games than the Reds.

    Overall, the Cards have a much easier schedule than the Reds this season.

    For Interleague play, the Reds play 7 games against the Rangers and Indians, while the Cards play 7 against the Mariners and KC.

    Cards have had a built in 3-6 game advantage every years since Interleague play started since their Interleague rival is KC. Of course the greatest fans in the world never talk about that.
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  11. #220
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And the Cards have played 7 more home games than the Reds.
    As of today Reds have played 26 home games, the Cardinals 22.

  12. #221
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And the Cards have played 7 more home games than the Reds.

    Overall, the Cards have a much easier schedule than the Reds this season.

    For Interleague play, the Reds play 7 games against the Rangers and Indians, while the Cards play 7 against the Mariners and KC.

    Cards have had a built in 3-6 game advantage every years since Interleague play started since their Interleague rival is KC. Of course the greatest fans in the world never talk about that.
    The data shows the cardinals have had the toughest schedule in baseball so far. You can think in your mind the reds schedule has been harder, but you'll just be lying to yourself.

  13. #222
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    The data shows the cardinals have had the toughest schedule in baseball so far. You can think in your mind the reds schedule has been harder, but you'll just be lying to yourself.
    Actually, the data proves that the Reds have had a tougher schedule. Three less games against bad teams, three more games against good teams.

    Number of games against these teams; Marlins, Cubs, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers and Padres (the really bad ones):

    Cards: 22
    Reds 19

    Number of games against these teams; Braves, Cards, Reds, Pirates (the really good ones):

    Cards: 8
    Reds: 11
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #223
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And the Cards have played 7 more home games than the Reds.

    Overall, the Cards have a much easier schedule than the Reds this season.

    For Interleague play, the Reds play 7 games against the Rangers and Indians, while the Cards play 7 against the Mariners and KC.

    Cards have had a built in 3-6 game advantage every years since Interleague play started since their Interleague rival is KC. Of course the greatest fans in the world never talk about that.
    Hmm you must be looking at different information than I am.

  15. #224
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by ajswartz888 View Post
    Hmm you must be looking at different information than I am.
    I was looking at data a few days old. My apologies.

    Still Reds have overall had a tougher schedule, and it gets tougher for them because of interleague play matchups.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #225
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Found it interesting today that the Cardinals played a "road" game but most of the stadium was wearing red. And it wasn't even close. Like a home away from home. Molina homers and drives in 4. Cards win 6-3


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