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Thread: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

  1. #196
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Or having the novel concept of putting high OBP guys at the top of the lineup. Matt Carpenter has scored a ton of runs and Carlos Beltran is arguably the best 2 hole hitter in baseball right now. Not a whole lot of mystery as to why they score runs.
    The combined OBA of the Reds #1 and #2 hitters this year is .701, the Cards .687. Add in the #3 guys and it ballons to 1.182 and 1.047, or an average of .394 and .349.

    Beltran's OBA is .333, hardly elite.

    I guess it's not a mystery why the Reds have scored more runs than the Cards, better OBA guys at the top.

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  3. #197
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Not in my opinion. The best regular season teams aren't the best playoff teams sometimes. Like in my opinion, while the reds are an excellent regular season team, and have playoff caliber pitching, their lineup is too hot and cold for playoff success and their manager, while an above average regular season manager is just not the greatest in the playoffs. I think the reds have to do things to make the the team a better playoff type team like getting more team speed, more consistent hitters with a more disciplined approach, and in reality a better tactical manager. I'm not saying they need all if those things but some combo of them would help.

    Do I think the regular season has been cheapened by the recent changes in playoff format,yes. This I think is unfair to the best regular season teams who had success all year. But at the same time it is the system the reds play under. That being the case, the best team doesn't always win, but the best PLAYOFF built team does a lot of the time.
    Why are the best regular season teams sometimes not the best playoff teams?

    Small sample size of playoff series. It's that simple.

    What makes the "best playoff built team"? I think the one the plays the ebst in the actual playoffs, and likely as much as randomness as anything else.

    Anmyone one to argue that the Giants had the best built "playoff team" last year.

    The best team in the playoffs usually doesn't win, becuase baseball is such a random game. Even the best team only wins 60% of the time, and that gors dowwn to a little over 50% in the playoffs becuase the teams are pretty equal.

    Look at two different teams, one who wins 98 games, and another that wins just 90 games, barely making the playoffs. The 8 game difference over the regular season may seem a lot, but in the 7 game series the 98 win team would be expected to win 4.2 games, the 90 win team 3.9 games. Marginal difference in the playoffs.

    Build a team to make the playoffs, then hope it's your time.

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    RedlegJake (05-26-2013)

  5. #198
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    For the record, the BRM was considered a great regular season team and a bad post-season team for the first five years... Until they won the World Series in 1975. And they almost lost that one. Had Perez not homered against Bill Lee in the sixth inning of game 7, the BRM would have gone down in history as a failure, and as a terrible playoff team.

    During the regular season, I've seen last place teams dominate first place teams in their season series. That doesn't mean the last place team is a better playoff team.
    I know that about the BRM. Tony was sitting on that blooper sfter being embarassed in it by Lee earlier. And I never said a last place team would be a good playoff team. You have to have the solid regular season pitching to get you there. Last place teams generally do not have this but for one game yeah bad teams can be great teams, but I think that's why baseball requires 5 or 7 game series' in the playoffs. I wasn't saying pitching wasn't important. I wasn't saying that bad teams could win in the playoffs. I was saying that it just strictly isn't the pitching that wins it for you once you are in. It's definitely a dominating factor to get you there, but once you are in for the most part all of the teams starters are realatively on the same footing unless you have a guy that's a cut above like a Johnson or Gibson. So unless someone lays an egg it'll be realatively even. So it'll come down to your teams ability to be as to score against at least above average pitching, and the quality of the bullpen. So at that point you're going to need tough outs to work the opposing pitchers into making mistakes, and a solid bullpen that can shut down the opposition in the late innings. So I wasn't saying that pitching didnt matter, or that bad teams could be good playoff teams. I was saying a lineups ability to manufacture runs against above average to elite pitching is key in the playoffs as well.

  6. #199
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Why are the best regular season teams sometimes not the best playoff teams?

    Small sample size of playoff series. It's that simple.

    What makes the "best playoff built team"? I think the one the plays the ebst in the actual playoffs, and likely as much as randomness as anything else.

    Anmyone one to argue that the Giants had the best built "playoff team" last year.

    The best team in the playoffs usually doesn't win, becuase baseball is such a random game. Even the best team only wins 60% of the time, and that gors dowwn to a little over 50% in the playoffs becuase the teams are pretty equal.

    Look at two different teams, one who wins 98 games, and another that wins just 90 games, barely making the playoffs. The 8 game difference over the regular season may seem a lot, but in the 7 game series the 98 win team would be expected to win 4.2 games, the 90 win team 3.9 games. Marginal difference in the playoffs.

    Build a team to make the playoffs, then hope it's your time.
    The reds already have a playoff caliber team. Why not go out at the deadline and make it a better playoff type team on top of it and increase your odds and take down some of the randomness factor. Better players and a better lineup go a long way into stacking the odds in your favor. The amount you do this depends if course on what you can afford to give up in terms if prospects and future considerations. Also maybe some of the randomness could be reduced if the reds didnt start leake in the playoffs or dusty doesnt leave and obviously uncomposed latos in to give up a grand slam. The thinking of oh it's just all randomness once you get in seems like an excuse not to make the team any better at the deadline and increase you chances of winning in the playoffs.

    Honestly if the giants didnt go out and increase their chances by acquiring pence and Scutaro, they may not have won in the playoffs. Build a winner. Let the losers talk about luck and randomness

  7. #200
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Also to puffy pig....by getting guys who are more likely to give disciplined at bats put the ball in play rather than give weak at bats and K, it'll increase your chances of the luck and randomness going in your favor. No one ever got lucky on a strikeout. But if you put the ball in play anything can happen. Also if you get guys that are disciplined and can work a pitcher, msybe he becomes fatigued and that random event of him hanging one happens sooner or more often to one of your better hitters. Also speed can shift the luck and randomness in your favor. A fast guy is way more likely to get on with a weak squibber type infield hit than a slower guy. And once he is on he can have so much more of the luck and randomness can go in your favor by having a pitcher lose his concentration and hang one or make a wild pitch or steal a base or outrun a force out. Simply put, if you already have a quality level playoff level team like the reds, try to make the necessary moves to shift the randomness of the game in your favor. That's what makes a good playoff team.

  8. #201
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Even if the Reds go hog wild and wreck the farm to add Headley AND Fowler, for instance, yes it makes them better now (at quite a cost to future hopes) and they could still get beat in the playoffs. My earlier allusion to the Yankees simply meant in at least 5 seasons they were easily the best overall roster of players and still lost. 2000 they win it all and that was arguably a weaker Yankee team than they had in years they lost in the playoffs.

    Build to win the division. That means plenty of good pitching...starters and pen. Add good D and add bats if you can but NOT at the cost of the pitching. Not even prospects...except prospects that are considered 2d tier...not Stephenson type potential aces. Those kind of arms are just too hard to acquire or too expensive in the open market. Wanna better chance in the playoffs? Upgrade pitching. I am more concerned with Marshalls health and Broxtons semi effectiveness than I am the offense.@

  9. #202
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Even if the Reds go hog wild and wreck the farm to add Headley AND Fowler, for instance, yes it makes them better now (at quite a cost to future hopes) and they could still get beat in the playoffs. My earlier allusion to the Yankees simply meant in at least 5 seasons they were easily the best overall roster of players and still lost. 2000 they win it all and that was arguably a weaker Yankee team than they had in years they lost in the playoffs.

    Build to win the division. That means plenty of good pitching...starters and pen. Add good D and add bats if you can but NOT at the cost of the pitching. Not even prospects...except prospects that are considered 2d tier...not Stephenson type potential aces. Those kind of arms are just too hard to acquire or too expensive in the open market. Wanna better chance in the playoffs? Upgrade pitching. I am more concerned with Marshalls health and Broxtons semi effectiveness than I am the offense.@
    I think going hog wild like that is short sided, and no move will guarantee a World Series, even moves for pitching, but some will help more than others. I'd put Stephenson in that untouchable category. He definitely has the potential to be one of those cut above guys. Marshall's injury concerns me. Broxton is giving the reds what I figured broxton would. But really if giving up some pitching meant getting a big bat it should be considered depending on who we are giving up and who We are getting. Hoarding pitching can be a good thing, but at the same time you need bats too, and besides Hamilton, our best prospects are pitchers. Lets hope the reds have good enough talent evaluation to make the cirrect call. Also I don't trade Hamilton. Period. That guy could add something we haven't seen in the game in years with his speed and add a whole new dimension to the reds offense.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 05-26-2013 at 03:47 PM.

  10. #203
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Some teams that amass great regular season records with a balanced pitching staff and lineup still might not be great playoff teams.

    The 2004 Cards had one great starting pitcher (Chris Carpenter) and four pretty good ones, plus a fearsome offense. They won 105 games in the regular season. Carp couldn't go in the playoffs because of a nerve condition, so we were left with starting the other four. Took seven games to squeak by the Astros and then got swept in the WS by the hot hitting Bosox.

    What you generally need to succeed in the playoffs is top line starting pitching. The Giants are a great example of how to build championship teams that way. Their offense is just good enough, they play great defense and their pitching shuts down just about everyone.
    Central Division Champions - 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004-6, 2009
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Reminds me of the quote about Bob Gibson. "Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in the game. He only pitches on the days the other team doesn't score any runs."
    There is a reason why the Cardinals seem to have the Reds number: it because they are a better team and have a much better fan base.

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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Brew Crew View Post
    There is a reason why the Cardinals seem to have the Reds number: it because they are a better team and have a much better fan base.
    We have a live one here....don't see you lasting very long.

  13. #206
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Brew Crew View Post
    There is a reason why the Cardinals seem to have the Reds number: it because they are a better team and have a much better fan base.
    I'm a cards fan and this may be the most vile post I've ever seen.

    I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul

  14. #207
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    I'm a cards fan and this may be the most vile post I've ever seen.

    I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul
    You must have missed this genius other post on here tonight.....it was a fake article about how Votto was hurt again and was going on the 60 day DL & how the Brewers were early victims of bad luck and would be winning the division and making the playoffs this season - of course the mods swiftly removed that garbage (as well as the poster I am assuming)

  15. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by redhat View Post
    Some teams that amass great regular season records with a balanced pitching staff and lineup still might not be great playoff teams.

    The 2004 Cards had one great starting pitcher (Chris Carpenter) and four pretty good ones, plus a fearsome offense. They won 105 games in the regular season. Carp couldn't go in the playoffs because of a nerve condition, so we were left with starting the other four. Took seven games to squeak by the Astros and then got swept in the WS by the hot hitting Bosox.

    What you generally need to succeed in the playoffs is top line starting pitching. The Giants are a great example of how to build championship teams that way. Their offense is just good enough, they play great defense and their pitching shuts down just about everyone.
    Could not agree more with this post. Well said. Follow the SF path, and we'll eventually break through with some luck.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  16. #209
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Could not agree more with this post. Well said. Follow the SF path, and we'll eventually break through with some luck.
    While I certainly do think we are built well-enough to make it to the WS/win a WS, I simply wonder, should we make it to the playoffs, if we are one or two poor in-game Dusty-decisions away from ultimately succeeding a la SF?

    Don't take that the wrong way, I am NOT a "Dusty hater" by NO means. But despite the fact that he HAS come around a bit, for the most part I find that Dusty does manage using a good degree of "old-school" mentality. And that's not even always a bad thing, but there are certain situations in which a mgr. needs to "adapt" and throw the conventional rule-book out the window.

    IMO, Dusty has earned the right to be here this season. We have been more successful during his tenure than we had for a good number of seasons prior. However, IF we do indeed make the playoffs again this year and IF we do not get out of the 1st round, I think, should there be anyone out there whom could be viewed as a possible "upgrade" (I mean, I certainly would not want to settle for just ANYONE to take over the managerial helm), then I think it will be time at that point to cut bait and let Dusty move on.

    Heck, for all I or anyone here knows, Dusty might actually feel the exact same way himself (I think it WAS just a *1 Yr.* deal, correct)? Maybe Dusty himself did not want a deal longer than that?

    To be honest, I wanted Francona BAD (despite the fact that overall, I quite like Dusty)....doesn't look like that will happen though.

  17. #210
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Could not agree more with this post. Well said. Follow the SF path, and we'll eventually break through with some luck.
    Or the Cardinals. They have won as may WS as the Giants lately. And are doing very well this year.


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