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Thread: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

  1. #241
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    The liar thing is out of line...just saying. That is a personal attack plain and simple and unnecessary. Saying he is wrong and is cherry picking stats is sufficient. Have some respect for fellow posters for crying out loud. Where I hail from being called a liar is a flat offer of a brouhaha.

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  3. #242
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    The liar thing is out of line...just saying. That is a personal attack plain and simple and unnecessary. Saying he is wrong and is cherry picking stats is sufficient. Have some respect for fellow posters for crying out loud. Where I hail from being called a liar is a flat offer of a brouhaha.
    That's an interesting position to take. You think that calling someone who is lying a liar is disrespecting them? And why are feelings even relevant to this discussion? Truth is truth regardless of how it makes you feel.

    I don't enjoy getting personal on messageboards like this because it can easily devolve into a flame war, but this behavior seems to be 757690's modus operandi (he has done this in other threads, too). I don't see anyone else pointing it out, so I thought I would. I'm content to let it go, but not for the reasons you mention. Someone who either cannot tell the truth, or is too incompetent or lazy to even know what the truth is, is not worthy of respect. I'm simply not interested in a flame war.

    This has probably gone on long enough to already annoy the mods, so I'm out.

  4. #243
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Who cares about "strength of schedule". It all washes out after 162.

    The Cardinals are only "lucky" in that the schedule has had us play in StL 6 times already and 0 in Cincy. That will be changing shortly.

  5. #244
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    SOS is not generally something I put a whole lot of thought into, to be honest. I have seen the "bad" teams whip up on the Cardinals, while the Cardinals consistently beat the crap out of the "good" teams certain years. So, as I said, I personally pay little attn. to that kind of thing. But that's just me...

  6. #245
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by MillerTime58 View Post
    Who cares about "strength of schedule". It all washes out after 162.

    The Cardinals are only "lucky" in that the schedule has had us play in StL 6 times already and 0 in Cincy. That will be changing shortly.
    Obviously that gives the reds the advantage (best home record)...playing at home, but the Cardinals have the best road record in baseball, so it won't be easy.
    (Watching a couple kissing at Busch Stadium) “Well, he’s kissing her on the strikes and she’s kissing him on the balls.”---a classic "Shannonism" from Cardinals broadcaster Mike Shannon

  7. #246
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Swampturkey View Post
    Obviously that gives the reds the advantage (best home record)...playing at home, but the Cardinals have the best road record in baseball, so it won't be easy.
    Well, lets just hope that the Reds take care of the Cards while playing them AT GABP, thereby taking full advantage of that "best home record". Things keep going the way they are, we're going to need every single win that we can get vs. the Cards head to head.

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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by mikdavrut View Post
    Well, lets just hope that the Reds take care of the Cards while playing them AT GABP, thereby taking full advantage of that "best home record". Things keep going the way they are, we're going to need every single win that we can get vs. the Cards head to head.
    Ultimately I still think they will fall back behind us at some point, regardless of how the games in GABP go. But we've been able to sweep them in Cincy in a 3 game series 2 years in a row now, so hopefully we can do it again.

  9. #248
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I'd be shocked if these two teams don't go back and forth all year. They're two of the very best in baseball because of their starting pitching. It's just a shame that both are in the same division. It's also a shame that it's taken this year for people to finally pay attention to the Central. Despite having a few true bottom feeders lately (Cubs & Astros), it's been one of the best divisions year in and year out. There's a reason why we've had the wild card virtually every year.

  10. #249
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by CardsFanBob View Post
    I'd be shocked if these two teams don't go back and forth all year. They're two of the very best in baseball because of their starting pitching. It's just a shame that both are in the same division. It's also a shame that it's taken this year for people to finally pay attention to the Central. Despite having a few true bottom feeders lately (Cubs & Astros), it's been one of the best divisions year in and year out. There's a reason why we've had the wild card virtually every year.
    Starting pitching is exactly why I think the Reds will eventually distance themselves. I think our starting pitching is more sustainable. I don't think we'll win by 9 games again, but maybe more like 3-5.

    Then again this thing could be neck and neck the whole way to the end, which certainly wouldn't bother me from an entertainment standpoint. However the possibility of a 100 win team not in the playoffs because they lost ONE GAME at the end of the season would be quite a travesty. To me that is a giant flaw with the new 2nd wild card team.

  11. #250
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by MillerTime58 View Post
    Starting pitching is exactly why I think the Reds will eventually distance themselves. I think our starting pitching is more sustainable. I don't think we'll win by 9 games again, but maybe more like 3-5.

    Then again this thing could be neck and neck the whole way to the end, which certainly wouldn't bother me from an entertainment standpoint. However the possibility of a 100 win team not in the playoffs because they lost ONE GAME at the end of the season would be quite a travesty. To me that is a giant flaw with the new 2nd wild card team.

    Yup. Your staffs ability to stay healthy is... Well, ridiculous and probably historic, honestly... at least in this era of baseball. I know Cueto went down for a small stretch, but come on... compared to what the Birds are facing, it's not close.

    It's too soon in the season for me to predict who will finish above whom at this point, and if I were a Reds fan, I'd completely feel the same way: At some point the magic is going to dry up in these young starters for the Cardinals....

    Regarding the shame of a 95-100 win team losing the one-game playoff and missing the rest of the postseason... yes, it would be a shame. BUT. Let's not forget that was the issue before the wildcard. Some exceptional teams missed the playoffs pretty consistently. I wonder what the record books would look like if they had the Wild Card for 100 years? I'd have to guess that we'd have a number of different World Series winners.

  12. #251
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I wanted to make this a separate post, as it was hard to squeeze in the prior post without getting points lost/confused......

    Obviously, the key for the Cardinals has been clutch hitting -- but more importantly, the starting pitching....

    At this point, I feel pretty reasonable in saying Wainwright and Lynn can hit the 200 inning mark. Waino for reasons obvious -- he's done it before, and he's two years removed from TJ surgery. Regarding Lynn: It's his second year as a starter. He's lighter. I think he grows into the role.

    NOW... the issue is with the youngsters. I'm pretty certain that I've read that the club wants to try and limit Shelby Miller's innings to around 170 innings. You have Lyons who is pitching out of his mind right now after two starts -- how long does that last? And Wacca appears to be filling out the back end of the rotation -- no idea how he'll perform, but he has sick stuff.

    The Cardinals REALLY need Jake Westbrook to bounce back, if nothing else but to suck up innings and take some strain of these youngsters. It would be nice if Chris Carpenter could do the same, but you never know with his health.

    The key is Carlos Martinez, in my mind. He was sent back to Memphis to stretch out. If he performs well (as expected), I wouldn't be surprised to see him get called back up and make occassional spot starts to save the other youngster's arms (and inning totals).

    One thing is certain: Everything is up in the air for the Cards rotation. They're just going to make adjustments as they go. It's certainly going to be interesting to see how things shake out.

  13. #252
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I think too much is being made of the strength of schedule. Does it tell you something? Sure it does, but what it tells you is incomplete. Strength of schedule, for instance, leaves out home/away splits, pitching match ups, quality of a team's offense vs. defense, and so on and so forth.

    There's a stat that was actually talked about on MLB Now the other day (finally) that I think is a much better indicator of how well a team is doing. It's called 3rd Order Wins. What it does is take your runs scored and runs allowed and factors in, not the quality of opponent, but rather, the quality of your opponent's relevant pitching and offense. Afterall, there are some pretty bad teams out there who may be bad because they're lopsided (ex: bad pitching, but a quality offense). Think of it as a "weighted" run pythagorean win projection. Here are the projected standings as we stand today:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

    As you can see, as of this post, the Reds have a projected 3rd order winning percentage of .607, and the Cardinals are at an even .600. In other words, both teams are playing over their heads, but more so the Cards. Of course, the difference between .607 and .600 at this point in the season is only about a half game, so the two teams are basically on even footing right now.

    Take it or leave it, I think these are two of the best teams in the league and they will be battling it out all summer. To be honest, anyone on here who think either side has been "lucky" is just fooling themselves.

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  15. #253
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    I retract my original post. They are really really good. I personally think the Reds need to focus on winning the wildcard. Don't see the Cards falling off like I thought they would.

  16. #254
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    I retract my original post. They are really really good. I personally think the Reds need to focus on winning the wildcard. Don't see the Cards falling off like I thought they would.
    The Reds just need to win as many games as they can and things will play out on their own. If they end up winning the wild card, I'm confident with Latos or Cueto going.

  17. #255
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    I think too much is being made of the strength of schedule. Does it tell you something? Sure it does, but what it tells you is incomplete. Strength of schedule, for instance, leaves out home/away splits, pitching match ups, quality of a team's offense vs. defense, and so on and so forth.

    There's a stat that was actually talked about on MLB Now the other day (finally) that I think is a much better indicator of how well a team is doing. It's called 3rd Order Wins. What it does is take your runs scored and runs allowed and factors in, not the quality of opponent, but rather, the quality of your opponent's relevant pitching and offense. Afterall, there are some pretty bad teams out there who may be bad because they're lopsided (ex: bad pitching, but a quality offense). Think of it as a "weighted" run pythagorean win projection. Here are the projected standings as we stand today:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

    As you can see, as of this post, the Reds have a projected 3rd order winning percentage of .607, and the Cardinals are at an even .600. In other words, both teams are playing over their heads, but more so the Cards. Of course, the difference between .607 and .600 at this point in the season is only about a half game, so the two teams are basically on even footing right now.

    Take it or leave it, I think these are two of the best teams in the league and they will be battling it out all summer. To be honest, anyone on here who think either side has been "lucky" is just fooling themselves.
    It should be noted though that the Cardinals played the fewest or were tied with the fewest home games in the first month and they've already played on the West Coast twice thus far. It hasn't really been easy for them on the scheduling front.
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