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Thread: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

  1. #31
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    In baseball tough strength of schedule is a hard thing to predict. It's more of a factor of when you play a team sometimes than who the team is. Or honestly it could come down to what part of the rotation you are in compared to the other team. A lot if factors play into it.
    Well then let's just use a factor that almost always works in a teams. Home vs. Away. Even here the reds played many more home games than the cards.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    That's actually not true. Go look at ESPN's mlb strength of schedules and you'll see that cincys road thus far has been one if the easiest in the league while stl has had the 3rd hardest. A lot of the teams cincy has played are supposed to he good (nats and angels) but haven't been and the majority of concys games have been at home. The only tough series cincy has played really are the two in stl.

    Meanwhile after 31 games the cards have only played 12 at home. Unlike the reds they haven't gotten to play teams as bad as LAA, Miami, or Chicago twice.

    Over a season sos and RPI mean nothing to me in baseball. But for a month or so I think its fine. On paper the reds schedule looked tough. In reality its been a pretty light scheduls
    I feel good having the Angels and Nationals done with. While the Brewers might have a better record than those teams I would much rather face the Brewers than either one of them.

  4. #33
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    They are a good team, but we are a better team. Barring injury, it will show by the end of the year.

  5. #34
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    I feel good having the Angels and Nationals done with. While the Brewers might have a better record than those teams I would much rather face the Brewers than either one of them.
    I get the impression that many people think the Reds have faced a tough schedule simply because they've faced the Nationals 7 times (won 3). Let's be honest about the Angels, they suck. Their pitching is atrocious and their offense isn't good enough to make up for it. Saying the Reds schedule is difficult because they've faced the Angels (3 games) is silly.

    Meanwhile, the Reds have had 13 games against "bad" teams (Marlins, Cubs, Phillies). By comparison, the Cardinals have had 4 (the Phillies). The Cardinals have played more games against the Pirates and have also played the Giants (NL Champions) and Diamondbacks.

    When I look at the aggregate of those schedules, I just don't see the Reds schedule as difficult. Maybe it looked difficult on paper before the season started, but not after.

  6. #35
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    Well then let's just use a factor that almost always works in a teams. Home vs. Away. Even here the reds played many more home games than the cards.
    True. At this point I think it's all moot. Looking at the big picture the reds overall, I believe, are better than the cards. The starting rotation in cincy is better. There is no way the cards pitchers sustain the numbers they are putting up. It's realistic to believe the reds will starters will be close to where they are all season. The reds pen is better too. The issues they've had namely in the Pittsburgh series was mostly due to over/under use of certain players, and I think that misuse was due to Marshall's being out. He's back now. As far as the lineup goes, with ludwick out, the cards are better. I have fears about the reds hitting above average pitching, but with the exception of choo and Phillips, the other people in the lineup are underperforming at some level. Even if it is against lesser pitching, the numbers will go up. Also the reds have the cards at home for the majority of the series the rest of the year. I think while the cards are ahead now, in the long run the reds are at an advantage especially if Walt can add the missing pieces at the deadline. I really think they are a legit 4 hole hitter away from being considered one of the greatest reds teams ever.

  7. #36
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    I get the impression that many people think the Reds have faced a tough schedule simply because they've faced the Nationals 7 times (won 3). Let's be honest about the Angels, they suck. Their pitching is atrocious and their offense isn't good enough to make up for it. Saying the Reds schedule is difficult because they've faced the Angels (3 games) is silly.

    Meanwhile, the Reds have had 13 games against "bad" teams (Marlins, Cubs, Phillies). By comparison, the Cardinals have had 4 (the Phillies). The Cardinals have played more games against the Pirates and have also played the Giants (NL Champions) and Diamondbacks.

    When I look at the aggregate of those schedules, I just don't see the Reds schedule as difficult. Maybe it looked difficult on paper before the season started, but not after.
    The Cubs are a team that could easily have a pretty good record. They have a horrible bullpen that has killed them. The match-up with the Cards/Cubs is an interesting one. I think the Cubs will score with them and it will come down to two very hittable pens.

  8. #37
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    The Cubs are a team that could easily have a pretty good record. They have a horrible bullpen that has killed them. The match-up with the Cards/Cubs is an interesting one. I think the Cubs will score with them and it will come down to two very hittable pens.
    I agree. If the cubs had any semblance if a bullpen they'd be tough.

  9. #38
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I think the biggest difference from last year though is that they seemed to have started to fix the bullpen way earlier than they did last year. Last year, it was around Julyish that they finally got great production from their pen. They have made early moves such as bringing up Martinez, switching closer roles, to where I think they will be a bit more consistent.
    Agreed. Another season has allowed the young guys to mature a bit and gain some experience. That goes for Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams as well as the arms.

    Having Waino at 100% helps (last start notwithstanding)
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  10. #39
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    All I can say about the Cards is they've had two of the worst teams in the past 10 years to win the World Series.

    So, I agree they are lucky.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  11. #40
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    I don't know what I would think right now if I was a cards fan. They have clearly looked like the best team in the division and really haven't gone through a rough stretch, yet they are still only 2.5 games up in the division.

    The reds have been pretty average so far, while playing a tough schedule. The Cards schedule hasn't been easy but has not been as tough as the Reds schedule so far. When you combine the inevitable Cards rough stretch with a Reds hot stretch, you would think that lead will evaporate quickly. Add in the Reds only having one series left in St. Louis, with the Cards having to travel to Cincy three times, and you have to like where the Reds are right now.

    Based solely on the eye test the Cards look like the best team in the division, but when you analyze the numbers you would almost rather be in the Reds position.
    Gotta disagree on the schedule. The Reds played 17 of their first 23 games at home, including 3 vs. the Cubs and 4 vs. the Marlins (all at home), arguably the 2 worst teams in the NL.

    The Cardinals played 16 of their first 22 on the road, and played Arizona, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The worst teams the Redbirds played were Philly and Milwaukee.

    Seems like a big advantage to me.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I'd much rather be the reds. The reds are not that far back despite a lot if injuries to some key guys, and get the cards way more at GABP the rest if the way. Plus I think the reds starting pitching success is much more likely to be maintained as a starting core than the cards, and our pen is way better. Believe me if rather see the reds sitting on top right now, but I totally agree that they aren't in a bad spot at all.
    Speaking of Injuries, the Cardinals have lost Chris Carpenter (arguably their ace), Furcal (starting SS) and Motte (their closer who lead the league in saves last year) for the season. Matt Adams has been out 2 weeks.

    At least the Reds will get their players back.
    We can share the women, we can share the wine.

  13. #42
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    All I can say about the Cards is they've had two of the worst teams in the past 10 years to win the World Series.

    So, I agree they are lucky.
    I'll grant you the regular season record, but a team has to win 11 games in the postseason to win a title. Both times the Redbirds did it, they didn't have home field advantage in a single series.

    Okay, they might have gotten a lucky call in Atlanta in 2011, but they also lost a World Series on a bad umpire's call.

    You make your own luck.
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  14. #43
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    The Cubs are a team that could easily have a pretty good record. They have a horrible bullpen that has killed them. The match-up with the Cards/Cubs is an interesting one. I think the Cubs will score with them and it will come down to two very hittable pens.
    What? The Cubs are 11-20, and that's including a 3-1 record against Miami and a 2-2 record against San Diego. Against all other teams they're 6-17.

    The Cardinals bullpen has blown 5 games where the Cardinals had a late lead. You could make the argument that with a good bullpen the Cardinals could be 25-6. Obviously that's speculation, but my point is there is a wide gulf between the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs have only been competitive against fellow bottom dwellers (Padres and Marlins). They've been destroyed by every other team they've played. And you're trying to argue that they're nearly as good as the Cardinals to support the idea that the Reds have played a tough schedule? /facepalm

  15. #44
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    What? The Cubs are 11-20, and that's including a 3-1 record against Miami and a 2-2 record against San Diego. Against all other teams they're 6-17.

    The Cardinals bullpen has blown 5 games where the Cardinals had a late lead. You could make the argument that with a good bullpen the Cardinals could be 25-6. Obviously that's speculation, but my point is there is a wide gulf between the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs have only been competitive against fellow bottom dwellers (Padres and Marlins). They've been destroyed by every other team they've played. And you're trying to argue that they're nearly as good as the Cardinals to support the idea that the Reds have played a tough schedule? /facepalm
    The Cubs have blown 8 saves this year. Could easily by 19-12. They have not been destroyed by anybody. The Reds won the series but it could have easily gone the other way. Same with the games in Cincy.

  16. #45
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    Re: Cardinals are luckiest team in baseball.

    And don't look now, but the Cards bullpen is starting to get things figured out with the call-ups of some young talented kids in Maness and Martinez. Maness does nothing but throw strikes low in the zone and is a ground ball magnet and Martinez throws close to 100 MPH with movement and a nice breaking ball.

    And by the end of the month, every Reds' fan's favorite Cardinal may be activated and placed in the bullpen... Chris Carpenter.

    There was an article in the STL Post Dispatch this weekend that he's working to try and finish out the season, and he'd be placed in the pen. It would be very interesting to say the least.


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