That Fangraphs article picks an odd sample. It's not like the only thing we know about the Jays is their record today. Most teams that start the year this way simply aren't good. But how many of those teams were expected to be very good teams. If you're going to put together a comp list, it shouldn't just be teams that got off to a bad start. It should be teams that were expected to be very good that got off to a bad start. How have those teams done historically?
Obviously the Reyes injury changes things, but there's no way I'm just giving up if I'm them. I think they have a much better shot than most would assume.