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Thread: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

  1. #31
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    That Fangraphs article picks an odd sample. It's not like the only thing we know about the Jays is their record today. Most teams that start the year this way simply aren't good. But how many of those teams were expected to be very good teams. If you're going to put together a comp list, it shouldn't just be teams that got off to a bad start. It should be teams that were expected to be very good that got off to a bad start. How have those teams done historically?

    Obviously the Reyes injury changes things, but there's no way I'm just giving up if I'm them. I think they have a much better shot than most would assume.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  4. #32
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That Fangraphs article picks an odd sample. It's not like the only thing we know about the Jays is their record today. Most teams that start the year this way simply aren't good. But how many of those teams were expected to be very good teams. If you're going to put together a comp list, it shouldn't just be teams that got off to a bad start. It should be teams that were expected to be very good that got off to a bad start. How have those teams done historically?

    Obviously the Reyes injury changes things, but there's no way I'm just giving up if I'm them. I think they have a much better shot than most would assume.
    I'm all ears if you can make a case for it Rick. Anyway you could come up with some rough odds that they make the playoffs?

  5. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Just for discussion purposes- what would it take? What would you be willing to do?

    I think something like Ludwick, Stephenson, Soto and one or two of Corcino/Winker/Y-Rod would start the conversation. (We would need Ludwick to be involved to make it remotely financially feasible). Would you do that if you're the Reds?

    Another possibility would be Chapman, Ludwick, Soto and Lutz. I'd do that deal in a minute.

    The good news is Bautista is only signed through 2015 (w option for 16) so he wouldn't necessarily bar us from extending one or two of Latos/Bailey/Cueto. He would obviously eliminate any possibility of extending Choo, however (which would be just fine in my book, especially if/when Hamilton starts figuring things out). In fact, Bautista will likely cost the same or less than Choo over the next several years, but having both in this years lineup would surely make us World Series favorites.
    I think if you want Bautista, the conversation starts at Bruce/Bailey with the Reds taking a lesser pitcher with some cost - probably Ricky Romero. The Reds would probably need to add Corcino and some one secondary. Maybe an H-Rod or a bullpen arm.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  6. #34
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    Phillips is on the wrong side of 30 and is getting paid a very good salary. Bruce is a good player, but if the offer was good and the team was out of it I would move either one.

    Sometimes you trade a good player (even if under control for a few years) for multiple good prospects that will help you be good for years to come. I don't see how this is unreasonable. Plus it would free up some money to re-sign some of the pitchers due for big contracts. I'm not saying I would give either away as any kind of salary dump, but if the offer was good, sure I'd move either one if the team was out of it.

    Thanks for being condescending to me though. I appreciate it.
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think if you want Bautista, the conversation starts at Bruce/Bailey with the Reds taking a lesser pitcher with some cost - probably Ricky Romero. The Reds would probably need to add Corcino and some one secondary. Maybe an H-Rod or a bullpen arm.
    Well then on to the next one. I probably wouldn't trade Bruce and Bailey in the same deal for anyone in the game at this point- certainly not for Bautista. Don't see how that makes the Reds a better team now or in the future.

    Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the only two I'd remotely consider that deal for, and even then it probably makes the Reds a worse team for this year and next year.

    This isn't 2007. Bruce and Bailey aren't "prospects." They are actually All-Star caliber contributors to a championship contending team. And neither makes a lot of money.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-05-2013 at 01:05 PM.
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  8. #36
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Well then on to the next one. I probably wouldn't trade Bruce and Bailey in the same deal for anyone in the game at this point- certainly not for Bautista. Don't see how that makes the Reds a better team now or in the future.

    Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the only two I'd remotely consider that deal for, and even then it probably makes the Reds a worse team for this year and next year.

    This isn't 2007. Bruce and Bailey aren't "prospects." They are actually All-Star caliber contributors to championship contending teams.
    Bruce and Bailey for Harper? That's a no brainer for me. Nothing to remotely consider.

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  10. #37
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Well then on to the next one. I probably wouldn't trade Bruce and Bailey in the same deal for anyone in the game at this point- certainly not for Bautista. Don't see how that makes the Reds a better team now or in the future.

    Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the only two I'd remotely consider that deal for, and even then it probably makes the Reds a worse team for this year and next year.

    This isn't 2007. Bruce and Bailey aren't "prospects." They are actually All-Star caliber contributors to a championship contending team. And neither makes a lot of money.
    Agreed, but the Jays don't view themselves as rebuilding. They'll only make a deal that make's their team better. What would it take for you to deal Votto? Take away a 10 year, $250 Million commitment and that would be what the Jays would ask for.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #38
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agreed, but the Jays don't view themselves as rebuilding. They'll only make a deal that make's their team better. What would it take for you to deal Votto? Take away a 10 year, $250 Million commitment and that would be what the Jays would ask for.
    Except that Bautista is 33 years old and has OPS'd above .900 twice in his entire career, and has been on a decline the last two years with health issues and very limited defensive value. In fact, he has only OPS'd .800 twice in his entire career in a season where he's played 100 games or more, and he is hitting .229 over the last two seasons.

    Votto on the other hand is not yet 30, has OPS'd above .900 every year of his career (except his rookie season when it was .874) and is a gold glover defensively. And he's coming off a year where he posted his career high OPS.

    So even absent any contractual commitments, I'd argue the two aren't even close in comparison.

    While I agree the Jays went all in on this year, they are now 10.5 games back in the toughest division in baseball - a division where they can only hope to compete once or twice a decade, and so far it certainly doesn't look like this will be one of those years (although there is plenty of time for that to change). They also gutted their farm system and took on a TON of salary this offseason, and might have to shed some of it if they don't start competing real soon (ironically in a manner similar to the team from which they took on a lot of those obligations).

    Meanwhile, Votto is on a team that has won the division 2 of the last 3 years, and is expected to compete for the World Series at least each of the next 2-3 years (and so far this year there is no reason to think otherwise).

    I'm not suggesting the Jays will move Bautista or even would want to at this point, but I do think it is nowhere close to similar to the Reds/Votto situation, even putting aside his 10 year commitment.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-05-2013 at 02:32 PM.
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  13. #39
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Assuming the Jays execise the option, Bautista is locked up at $14 Million per year through 2016. Even if he's dropped to last year's .886 OPS level, that's a bargain. I do agree about his age coming into play. His value will drop in the next couple of years, but I don't think the Jays are willing to go there yet. They'd need a replacement (Bruce) and upgrade to the staff without adding a bunch of money (Bailey/Romero) and a kid or two for the pipeline (Corcino+) to move him now. Maybe if they are 20 games back in July and his production is still in decline, they'd go the kids route, but seeing the reaction that Florida got when they signed all those guys and then dealt them within a year, I just don't see the Jays going into sell mode so soon after selling the farm for all those acquisitions until they've given it a couple of years to work.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #40
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Half a run per game is a huge difference. It would give us the best run differential in the league, and an expected record of 21-10.
    For the Reds, yes, but we're not talking about the Reds.

    We're talking about a team that is scoring 3.45 runs per game and giving up 5.23. Even if they were scoring 3.95 runs per game, their expected record would result in only one additional win (11-20 instead of 10-21).

    So the BABIP argument doesn't have a whole lot to do with the Jays' struggles right now.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #41
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    Jays have the worst run differential in baseball. Worse than Fla and Hou. They need more than half a run. They need about a run and a half.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 10/17/14. I promise.

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Bautista is on the decline and every GM in MLB knows it.

    I don't think the Jays can get as much as everyone else thinks. And if Bautista continues his downward spiral, they might be willing to purge his salary for a few decent prospects. No way do I trade Bruce/Bailey for Bautista.

    Now, if I could get him for very little (salary purge), I'd take the risk. Because I view it as a risk for the team getting him, not for the Jays. We're talking Adam Dunn-type decline here.
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  18. #43
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    One point that I don't think has been addressed in this thread is that the Jays play in the brutal AL East. While it's not as brutal as usual due to the Yankees being mediocre/good instead of great, it's still a damn good division. Five solid clubs, any of which could make the playoffs. The Red Sox are one of the surprise teams of baseball, which is funny to say, but is true. The Orioles made the playoffs last year and are solid again this year. The Rays are solid every year and will get even better once they call up Wil Myers.

    Even though it's May, Jays are in big-time trouble in that division. The good news for them is that with the extra wildcard team making the playoffs now, they still have an outside chance at making the postseason. No way they will win the division, but perhaps they could sneak in with the last wildcard spot. It's highly unlikely it will happen though given all the games they still have to play against the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Rays.

  19. #44
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Trade Targets

    Rentals such as Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Matt Garza, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco, Edinson Volquez, and Frank Francisco figure to have their names kicked around the trade market this summer, assuming decent performance from the players and a lack of playoff potential from their employers. More appealing, however, are players who are under team control beyond this year. Names to watch:

    ...

    Josh Willingham, Twins. The Twins are only a game under .500, but if they fall out contention, Willingham could command a premium since he is signed affordably through 2014. The Twins also have appealing, under-contract relievers in Glen Perkins and Jared Burton

    Some new names to discuss.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  20. #45
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Re: If Toronto keeps losing.. Could the Reds see Bautista Time batting 4th??

    Bautista is the Matt Kemp of the AL, both are vastly overrated based on one monstrous season they'll never reproduce.

    Take away Bautista's monster 2011 season and he's averaged 3.1 fWAR since 2009. That's about 1 win above the average MLB player...then consider his age.


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