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Thread: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

  1. #16
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    Walt dies???
    I am sure it means something like 'Walt is willing to roll the die'. Or something similar.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    Walt dies???
    A typo I did not notice. Probably and iPhone auto correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    A typo I did not notice. Probably and iPhone auto correct.
    I knew it was a typo....not that the idea of Walt dying is funny, but the context therein...i chuckled.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Well, I would take any of Stanton, Fowler or Headley at the right price of course. I think everyone would.

    Headley --- if he is determined to go the FA route after this year, maybe SD decides to get the best return they can at the trade deadline. I have no idea what other teams need a rental 3b, but on the other hand, Headley upgrades just about everyone at 3b.. so there will be some demand. No way would I consider trading Cueto for him (as proposed in the original post). I guess it depends on how the offense is working at the trade deadline, and what the prognoisis is for Ludwick.
    I would really hate to trade either BHam or Cingrani for a one year rental. Those guys are a big part of the future right now. As soon as next year, the team might need them (and no other guys in house will be ready for CF or SP next year).

    The point about Ludwick being signed next year (someone else brought this up) is huge too. Although we could argue that Fowler could be picked up and Billy H could be parked in AAA an extra year. Or perhaps either Billy or Fowler would be traded after the season.

    The Reds have the pieces to get Stanton, I think, if the Marlins want to deal him.
    Of course, other teams have better farm systems than the Reds, but the market values prospects extremely high now. The high level prospects simply are not traded as often as they used to be. I guess the point is, other clubs will be just as hestitant to trade their top prospect.. just like we would be hestitant to trade Cingrani (IMO, he easily is the #1 Reds prospect now. I still like BHam, but Cingrani is ahead of Billly H).
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  6. #20
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, I would take any of Stanton, Fowler or Headley at the right price of course. I think everyone would.

    Headley --- if he is determined to go the FA route after this year, maybe SD decides to get the best return they can at the trade deadline. I have no idea what other teams need a rental 3b, but on the other hand, Headley upgrades just about everyone at 3b.. so there will be some demand. No way would I consider trading Cueto for him (as proposed in the original post). I guess it depends on how the offense is working at the trade deadline, and what the prognoisis is for Ludwick.
    I would really hate to trade either BHam or Cingrani for a one year rental. Those guys are a big part of the future right now. As soon as next year, the team might need them (and no other guys in house will be ready for CF or SP next year).

    The point about Ludwick being signed next year (someone else brought this up) is huge too. Although we could argue that Fowler could be picked up and Billy H could be parked in AAA an extra year. Or perhaps either Billy or Fowler would be traded after the season.

    The Reds have the pieces to get Stanton, I think, if the Marlins want to deal him.
    Of course, other teams have better farm systems than the Reds, but the market values prospects extremely high now. The high level prospects simply are not traded as often as they used to be. I guess the point is, other clubs will be just as hestitant to trade their top prospect.. just like we would be hestitant to trade Cingrani (IMO, he easily is the #1 Reds prospect now. I still like BHam, but Cingrani is ahead of Billly H).
    Maybe I am mistaken, but I believe that Headley is signed through next season as well. I'd never give up cueto for a rental. And the cueto idea was for if the reds think they have a shot at signing latos or bailey long term. I see them improving, and while cueto is an ace I don't see him getting much more out if his game, not that it is bad.

    As far as Stanton goes I could see the marlins attaching him to Ricky Nolasco in a trade, which may not be a bad thing for the reds because it would allow them to move pitching without a huge hit and it might bring the actual price in prospects for the trade down. I could see it going like this:

    To Miami:
    Leake
    Cingrani
    Frazier
    Heisey
    Lutz
    Travieso
    Cisco or Romano

    To reds:
    Stanton
    Nolasco
    Ruggiano
    Maybe Polanco

    That seems like a type of trade that could go down based on the marlins and reds trading history. The marlins would save money and get quality in return. The reds would get pieces they need but would not be parting ways with anyone that would create a hole in the current lineup.

    Leake and Cingranis spots get filled by cueto and Nolasco, heisey by ruggiano, and fraziers by Polanco, if not by hannahan and Hrod platoon. The rest of the guys in the trade would offer high upside with the marlins, but are years away from contributing to the reds or are blocked at their positions.

  7. #21
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Maybe I am mistaken, but I believe that Headley is signed through next season as well. I'd never give up cueto for a rental. And the cueto idea was for if the reds think they have a shot at signing latos or bailey long term. I see them improving, and while cueto is an ace I don't see him getting much more out if his game, not that it is bad.

    As far as Stanton goes I could see the marlins attaching him to Ricky Nolasco in a trade, which may not be a bad thing for the reds because it would allow them to move pitching without a huge hit and it might bring the actual price in prospects for the trade down. I could see it going like this:

    To Miami:
    Leake
    Cingrani
    Frazier
    Heisey
    Lutz
    Travieso
    Cisco or Romano

    To reds:
    Stanton
    Nolasco
    Ruggiano
    Maybe Polanco

    That seems like a type of trade that could go down based on the marlins and reds trading history. The marlins would save money and get quality in return. The reds would get pieces they need but would not be parting ways with anyone that would create a hole in the current lineup.

    Leake and Cingranis spots get filled by cueto and Nolasco, heisey by ruggiano, and fraziers by Polanco, if not by hannahan and Hrod platoon. The rest of the guys in the trade would offer high upside with the marlins, but are years away from contributing to the reds or are blocked at their positions.
    Meh. Won't happen. Reds are adding too much payroll. Stanton is under control for awhile. Sure, he gets a raise in arbitration, but not $10M or $20M. Nolasco comes with enough salary to kill the deal. But he and Polanco are FA's after 2013. I don't see the Reds giving up their long term answer to 3B for a 37 year old. Plus the Reds are already paying Hannahan as backup to 3B.

    Neither team is looking to take much salary, if any.

    Per baseball-reference.com......

    Polanco, 37 years old, $2.75M in 2013, FA in 2014
    Nolasco, 30 years old, $11.5M in 2013, FA in 2014
    Ruggiano, 31 years old, minimum
    Stanton, 23 years old, minimum, arbitration in 2014

    Not sure why the Reds need Ruggiano when they already have Heisey. Unless you include Heisey in the trade when he comes off the DL.

    So maybe something like this......
    Reds get......
    Stanton - main target for Reds in trade
    Nolasco - Fish require Reds take on his salary. But he is a FA in 2014
    Ruggiano - takes place of Heisey as back up CFer or full time CFer and Choo moves to LF. Makes the minimum for years to come.
    Mike Dunn (LH Reliever, 1.72 e.r.a.) - strengthens the bullpen immediately against lefties. Lefties hitting .226 against him this season. Arbitration eligible in 2014. FA in 2017.

    Fish get.......
    Heisey (major leaguer) - younger version of Ruggiano
    Leake (major leaguer) - young and just now hitting arbitration, replaces Nolasco at a cheaper rate.
    F Perez (AAA) - candidate/prospect to replace Stanton; cheap
    N. Soto (AAA) - 1B candidate to replace Marlins Greg Dobbs (34 years old).
    B. Hamilton (AAA) - Reds #1 prospect
    Corcino (AAA) - Reds 3rd best pitching prospect
    HRod (AAA) - heir apparent to Polanco at 3B
    Logan Ondrusek - replaces Dunn in bullpen.

    Frankly, I think that's a pretty good haul for the Fish even if Billy Hamilton wasn't included.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Meh. Won't happen. Reds are adding too much payroll. Stanton is under control for awhile. Sure, he gets a raise in arbitration, but not $10M or $20M. Nolasco comes with enough salary to kill the deal. But he and Polanco are FA's after 2013. I don't see the Reds giving up their long term answer to 3B for a 37 year old. Plus the Reds are already paying Hannahan as backup to 3B.

    Neither team is looking to take much salary, if any.

    Per baseball-reference.com......

    Polanco, 37 years old, $2.75M in 2013, FA in 2014
    Nolasco, 30 years old, $11.5M in 2013, FA in 2014
    Ruggiano, 31 years old, minimum
    Stanton, 23 years old, minimum, arbitration in 2014

    Not sure why the Reds need Ruggiano when they already have Heisey. Unless you include Heisey in the trade when he comes off the DL.

    So maybe something like this......
    Reds get......
    Stanton - main target for Reds in trade
    Nolasco - Fish require Reds take on his salary. But he is a FA in 2014
    Ruggiano - takes place of Heisey as back up CFer or full time CFer and Choo moves to LF. Makes the minimum for years to come.
    Mike Dunn (LH Reliever, 1.72 e.r.a.) - strengthens the bullpen immediately against lefties. Lefties hitting .226 against him this season. Arbitration eligible in 2014. FA in 2017.

    Fish get.......
    Heisey (major leaguer) - younger version of Ruggiano
    Leake (major leaguer) - young and just now hitting arbitration, replaces Nolasco at a cheaper rate.
    F Perez (AAA) - candidate/prospect to replace Stanton; cheap
    N. Soto (AAA) - 1B candidate to replace Marlins Greg Dobbs (34 years old).
    B. Hamilton (AAA) - Reds #1 prospect
    Corcino (AAA) - Reds 3rd best pitching prospect
    HRod (AAA) - heir apparent to Polanco at 3B
    Logan Ondrusek - replaces Dunn in bullpen.

    Frankly, I think that's a pretty good haul for the Fish even if Billy Hamilton wasn't included.

    I was saying maybe Polanco. I could see maybe including Hrod instead of Frazier. I. Your version of the deal, aside from Hamilton and leake, the reds are giving the fish a lot of second tier prospects. Isn't there top position player prospect a center fielder? I think in that case they wouldn't want Hamilton. Lutz and heisey offer a major league ready guy and a guy with a few years of experience. Frazier would be a sweetner plus they could pay a lower price than for Polanco, who would platoon with hannahan until seasons end. The acquisition if Stanton would lessen the need for fraziers bat. It'd be tough loosing cingrani and leake but I think the fish would welcome the pitching help. At that pint the top three in their rotation would look pretty good. I know the reds would be taking on money, but it's money that comes off the books at years end. It'd be kind if a win now trade, but not a minor league busting trade. Next year for the reds Hamilton can slide into center if choo isn't resigned and Hrod can go to third or platoon with hannahan. Corcino could go into the rotation and arroyo could be either resigned or another pitcher be brought in.

    All And all I just don't think you'd be giving up enough.

    Cingrani has more upside than leake and by giving them both I'd be a real deal starter

    Lutz is more versatile than Soto and IMO had greater upside. He'd be a better pie e for the fish than Perez who'd be a stopgap at best. Late 20s and in AAA with no majors experience.

    Frazier and Hrod to me is almost a push depending on what kind of player you need. If the reds acquire Stanton you can go with more contact and Frazier has more trade value. Plus the fish could see Frazier and lutz make up for the lost power.

    Heisey is a servicable backup

    Travieso has plus stuff but is years away and may not be ready until the reds window of opportunity is past

    Either Cisco or Romano is a nice sweetner piece but no major loss to the big league club until like 2 or three years from now.

    The only way I could see my proposed deal being different is to take leake out and put corcino in do the reds can keep reliable big league pitching.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 05-10-2013 at 02:26 PM.

  9. #23
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I was saying maybe Polanco. I could see maybe including Hrod instead of Frazier. I. Your version of the deal, aside from Hamilton and leake, the reds are giving the fish a lot of second tier prospects. Isn't there top position player prospect a center fielder? I think in that case they wouldn't want Hamilton. Lutz and heisey offer a major league ready guy and a guy with a few years of experience. Frazier would be a sweetner plus they could pay a lower price than for Polanco, who would platoon with hannahan until seasons end. The acquisition if Stanton would lessen the need for fraziers bat. It'd be tough loosing cingrani and leake but I think the fish would welcome the pitching help. At that pint the top three in their rotation would look pretty good. I know the reds would be taking on money, but it's money that comes off the books at years end. It'd be kind if a win now trade, but not a minor league busting trade. Next year for the reds Hamilton can slide into center if choo isn't resigned and Hrod can go to third or platoon with hannahan. Corcino could go into the rotation and arroyo could be either resigned or another pitcher be brought in.

    All And all I just don't think you'd be giving up enough.

    Cingrani has more upside than leake and by giving them both I'd be a real deal starter

    Lutz is more versatile than Soto and IMO had greater upside. He'd be a better pie e for the fish than Perez who'd be a stopgap at best. Late 20s and in AAA with no majors experience.

    Frazier and Hrod to me is almost a push depending on what kind of player you need. If the reds acquire Stanton you can go with more contact and Frazier has more trade value. Plus the fish could see Frazier and lutz make up for the lost power.

    Heisey is a servicable backup

    Travieso has plus stuff but is years away and may not be ready until the reds window of opportunity is past

    Either Cisco or Romano is a nice sweetner piece but no major loss to the big league club until like 2 or three years from now.

    The only way I could see my proposed deal being different is to take leake out and put corcino in do the reds can keep reliable big league pitching.
    HRod
    FPerez
    NSoto

    All are 4A players at this point with little to prove in triple A. It's now or never and they are blocked in the Reds organization.

    Corcino is on the cusp. Probably this season and next in triple A and he's pushing on the door.

    While Lutz may seem like the bigger name.......he was hitting only like .212 in double AA. Not sure what the allure is with him at this point. Potential is high though.

    Not sure Cingrani has more upside than Leake at this point. Leake has 4 pitches. Cingrani has 2, maybe 3. Leake is more polished. Cingrani easily could be getting by on the league having never seen him before.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    HRod
    FPerez
    NSoto

    All are 4A players at this point with little to prove in triple A. It's now or never and they are blocked in the Reds organization.

    Corcino is on the cusp. Probably this season and next in triple A and he's pushing on the door.

    While Lutz may seem like the bigger name.......he was hitting only like .212 in double AA. Not sure what the allure is with him at this point. Potential is high though.

    Not sure Cingrani has more upside than Leake at this point. Leake has 4 pitches. Cingrani has 2, maybe 3. Leake is more polished. Cingrani easily could be getting by on the league having never seen him before.
    Exactly. They are not going to want 4 A players for arguably the best power hitter in the game.

    Cingrani is a hot ticket right now.
    Leake has a good track record and is major league proven.
    So is Frazier. So is Heisey.
    I still say Lutz has a higher ceiling than soto. Can play more spots and shorter swing.

    The minor league guys I included includes Travieso who while has high upside is a way off. The other two, only one of which I'd include, have big league potential but are a few years off.

    In my deal the fish would be getting proven, young or younger major league talent back. Not 4A players.

    I think Hamilton will be good but Miami has a prospect for center and Hamilton is struggling at AAA now. I think my deal offers more for the fish to bite at (pun intended) and while the reds would take on salary it'd be for the very short term. I wouldn't create holes on this years team, and the ones that it could create next year could be mostly filled in by our minor leaguers.

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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Exactly. They are not going to want 4 A players for arguably the best power hitter in the game.

    Cingrani is a hot ticket right now.
    Leake has a good track record and is major league proven.
    So is Frazier. So is Heisey.
    I still say Lutz has a higher ceiling than soto. Can play more spots and shorter swing.

    The minor league guys I included includes Travieso who while has high upside is a way off. The other two, only one of which I'd include, have big league potential but are a few years off.

    In my deal the fish would be getting proven, young or younger major league talent back. Not 4A players.

    I think Hamilton will be good but Miami has a prospect for center and Hamilton is struggling at AAA now. I think my deal offers more for the fish to bite at (pun intended) and while the reds would take on salary it'd be for the very short term. I wouldn't create holes on this years team, and the ones that it could create next year could be mostly filled in by our minor leaguers.
    By 4A players I simply mean they have nothing left to prove at 3A. I didn't mean they weren't major league talent. Soto, on fire right now, and Felix Perez really have nothing left to prove at triple A. I don't think HRod does either, although he has struggled so far this season.

    I have no idea why people think it's going to take like 7 or 8 players, a Herschel Walker-type deal, to get Stanton.

    Shoot, I'd do Hamilton and Chapman for Stanton straight up. Reds #1 prospect and a top 3 Closer in the game right now, not to mention Cuban, which would play well in Miami. Not to mention Chapman is a pretty good draw for fans. And unlike the Reds, who have 5 or 6 potential quality starters in Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake, Cingrani..........the Fish would have time to develop Chapman as a starter. And according to some fans (on Redszone and on the radio), Chapman is the second coming of Randy Johnson. So that's pretty good return value right there.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    By 4A players I simply mean they have nothing left to prove at 3A. I didn't mean they weren't major league talent. Soto, on fire right now, and Felix Perez really have nothing left to prove at triple A. I don't think HRod does either, although he has struggled so far this season.

    I have no idea why people think it's going to take like 7 or 8 players, a Herschel Walker-type deal, to get Stanton.

    Shoot, I'd do Hamilton and Chapman for Stanton straight up. Reds #1 prospect and a top 3 Closer in the game right now, not to mention Cuban, which would play well in Miami. Not to mention Chapman is a pretty good draw for fans. And unlike the Reds, who have 5 or 6 potential quality starters in Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake, Cingrani..........the Fish would have time to develop Chapman as a starter. And according to some fans (on Redszone and on the radio), Chapman is the second coming of Randy Johnson. So that's pretty good return value right there.
    Maybe it wouldn't take as much as I proposed but the guys you put in there, none of them have the potential to be a superstar, even billy or a number one starter. You don't trade the best power hitter in the game at 23 for that. No way I trade chapman. You want to make a legit run at the series you need a shut down bullpen. Look how out of wack they looked missing Marshall. Don't cite the cards from 2011. By the time the playoffs rolled around the pen was set and last year the giants had a wild card in the pen with lincecum. Also chapman could start next year if the reds have to spend pitching this year. In recent years closers haven't been hard to come by in the off season.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 05-10-2013 at 05:21 PM.

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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    To Miami:
    Leake
    Cingrani
    Frazier
    Heisey
    Lutz
    Travieso
    Cisco or Romano

    To reds:
    Stanton
    Nolasco
    Ruggiano
    Maybe Polanco

    .
    That's way too much for Stanton, IMO.
    I know the theory is that Nolasco could fill the 5th starter role, but he's a downgrade from Leake/Cingrani and he's expensive.
    Trading Frasier leaves a big hole as well. I really don't want Hannaran to play everyday and also be forced to call up someone like Negron as a backup infielder/PH. Maybe Polanaco could fill in at 3b (just now noticing that), but not a big fan of that trade. I think it weakens the Reds more than it helps them short term.

    I could actually get behind getting Polanco by himself in a minor trade to play 3b and putting Frasier into LF to try to get a little more offense until Ludwick gets back, but that kind of closes the door for a bigger move.
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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    That's way too much for Stanton, IMO.
    I know the theory is that Nolasco could fill the 5th starter role, but he's a downgrade from Leake/Cingrani and he's expensive.
    Trading Frasier leaves a big hole as well. I really don't want Hannaran to play everyday and also be forced to call up someone like Negron as a backup infielder/PH. Maybe Polanaco could fill in at 3b (just now noticing that), but not a big fan of that trade. I think it weakens the Reds more than it helps them short term.

    I could actually get behind getting Polanco by himself in a minor trade to play 3b and putting Frasier into LF to try to get a little more offense until Ludwick gets back, but that kind of closes the door for a bigger move.
    I think people are way too high on Frazier. With the addition of Stanton's bat, and hannahans glove the team would be better. Plus if Polanco were in the trade he could easily be the offensive end of a third base platoon and give ways more diciplined at bats than Frazier ever dreamed he could.

    The guys I'd be really worried about giving up are lutz Travieso and leake. I'd try to maybe put corcino in that trade instead of leake.

    Nolasco is a very serviceable 5th starter.

    Maybe I overvalued the trade, but we are not going to get Stanton for a bunch of B rated prospects and Hamilton. Trading Hamilton or chapman for him IMO is not a smart move.

    Cingrani
    Leake
    Frazier
    Heisey
    Travieso

    I know it's pitching heavy, and for whatever reason no one wants to move Frazier but you have to give quality for quality.

    In the long run next year chapman takes a rotation spot, corcino takes a spot. Hrod takes third. Arroyo will be gone and maybe choo. Take the extra money for a starter or closer or resign choo and pick up Stanton's arb money.

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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Ill admit maybe it was an overpay for Stanton, and I was trying to make the point that it'll take legit prospect talent or younger major leaguers to get him rather than guys who have nothing left to prove in AAA but probably have no shot at being stars with Hamilton along with the fact that trading Hamilton and chapman would be insanely detrimental to the team this year and moving forward. I have an odd feeling that if Stanton is traded this year Nolasco will be attached.

    Cingrani
    Corcino
    Travieso
    Frazier
    Heisey

    To reds:
    Stanton
    Nolasco
    Polanco
    Ruggiano

    The bulk of the price is for Stanton. The pitchers and fraziers bat. We get the three rentals to give the fish salary relief and act as a platoon partner at third and right handed power/backup centerfield. We could keep Nolasco as depth or flip him to another team.

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    Re: Stanton, Headley, Fowler and the guys I'd give up for each

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Ill admit maybe it was an overpay for Stanton, .
    From the Miami point of view, your trade proposal really isn't that crazy.
    I'm just saying that I wouldn't do the trade if I was the Reds.
    I don't think the upgrade of Heisey to Stanton offsets the loss of 3 major league contributors.
    Even though Cingrani will probably go down as soon as Cueto is healthy, he'll probably be back up at some point in the season to make a few starts. I'm guessing Cingrani is in the bullpen as the second LH pitcher for the playoffs too.

    I think Hannaran is a very nice bench player, but I don't want him starting everyday. Frasier is a potential 20 HR, 80 RBI guy at 3b that plays acceptable defense. Maybe I am overrating him, but guys like that don't grow on trees.
    It's true that Todd is never going to be a high OBP guy, but he's a nice 6th place hitter.

    It's likely to be a very tight race for the division with the Cardinals.. I really don't want to lose Leake and Cingrani and replace them with the inferior Nolasaco.
    Even though Stanton probably is an impact addition to our offense, he is off to a horrible start. That can't be completely discounted.

    I'd much rather give up some non-ML players for Stanton. Maybe give them one of Leake/Cingrani, but not both. If the Reds don't have enough on the farm to entice Miami, I'm fine with standing pat and trying to find a temporary plug in LF at the trading deadline (if Ludwick appears to be out for the year).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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