BABIPOriginally Posted by Brutus
2010: .261
2011: .333
2012: .249
2013: .222
One season, not in the same stratosphere of the others with a notable reason that we can attribute to a very possible reason for that one to stand out.
I am not drawing a line anywhere other than suggesting that he seems like a guy who can beat the .300 BABIP line that the pitching independent fielding systems want to attribute to him.
Once upon a time that was a description of Corey Lidle too. Then his luck ran out. Wood hasn't pitched that much, certainly not enough to have established himself as some sort of reliable BABIP outlier. That's going to take 1,000+ innings.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Cory Lidle had a .307 BABIP in his first year. He had a .322 BABIP in his second year (not counting his 99 where he had a handful of innings). In 2001 he was at .262. In 2003 it was .282. In 2003 it was .303.
When it comes to BABIP, I on board with a guy is what he is until he proves he isn't when there is a trend (and there is actually enough data to start suggesting something). Travis Wood, over 2+ full seasons worth of innings on different teams and a different stadium is showing that he isn't like the others. He also brings along a pitch that we know reduces BABIP.
Travis Wood's BABIP in the minors, in 723 innings, was .290.
Doug, if he had some sort of ability to maintain a historically low BABIP, it would have likely already manifested itself at the lower levels. It didn't.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
To be fair, I am not sure anyone is saying it's impossible he is in the outliers. Yet he is not in outlier territory. He is in the never ever sustained in the history of modern baseball territory. He is also an outlier in more than one category. You can see a pitcher in 1 or 2 categories, but right now he is an outlier in 3 stats that say he is very lucky right (LOB, HR/FB, and BABIP). Although I think his LOB% came down a little since his last start and is now in the "great" to "above average" level. Yet for his career his LOB% has been "below average" to "poor."
Now, he can become a better pitcher in the mean time while his luck stats return some to reasonable levels. That is an unknown. Yet the pitcher he is right now says he has been rather lucky.
Last edited by scott91575; 06-03-2013 at 05:35 AM.
Care to tell me when he picked up the cut fastball?
I will tell you. It was in 2009, in AA with Tom Brown. His BABIP in the minors from 2009 until he was in the Majors? .243, .269, .287. Then we get to the 2011 season, where he lost all feel for his cutter and his BABIP jumped up at both AAA and the Majors and was nearly .350 between the two stops that season.
From 2009, when he picked up the cutter, he has had a BABIP in the .240-.270 range every year with the exception of 2011 when we know that he lost all feel for his cutter.
Not true. He pitched 100 innings in the minors in 2010 and had a .287 BABIP. In 41 innings in the minors last year, he had a .358 BABIP.
It's very convenient to try and explain it away that easily while using the excuse "he lost his feel" in 2011, but yet in the minors in both 2010 and 2012, having the cutter apparently didn't help at all.
What you're left with is no trend at all when considering all those facts.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
According to baseball-reference over the last year, 33 starts Wood has a .250 BABIP.
And it's .222 right now. I don't know if he can keep this up, it SEEMS unlikely, and yet he keeps doing it. He's started 72 games, All in the NL Central for teams with extreme hitters parks in the toughest division in the National League. There is a book on him by now. And yet he keeps the ball in the park, doesn't walk guys and induces weak contact. He'll hit 200 IP this year for the first time, if he stays healthy.
I say he is what he is until the league says otherwise. So far, they really haven't.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I don't believe Wood threw his cutter in the minors? Are we able to see his babip on that pitch only?
Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand
He would have thrown it in the minors in 2010 and 2012, which yielded .287 and .358 BABIP in those 140 innings (two stops) as well as .363 in 2011 in 50 innings.
That's almost 200 innings he threw it in the minors with no evidence of having a low BABIP.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Hitter's parks are normally hitter's parks due to home runs, not BABIP rates. There are of course exceptions. Fenway will be a place with a really inflated BABIP due to the green monster. Coors will have inflated BABIP due to it's size, poor breaking balls, etc. Wrigley is slightly above average, and that can be due to the foul territory (or lack there of), the elements, fear of running into a brick wall, and unique shape of the wall in left and right field. GABP is below average. GABP and Wrigley combined would be about average.
His career HR/FB rate is ever so slightly below average (good considering the parks), his BB rate is average (not sure where you are getting the idea he doesn't walk guys), and as far as inducing weak contact his LD% is 21.4% where average is around 20%. He has been better with line drives this year at 18.5%.
Last edited by scott91575; 06-03-2013 at 07:29 PM.
Yep. 41 innings. That trumps the rest as a "you got me".
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