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Thread: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

  1. #46
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.

    For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.

    You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.
    You are close but no cigar. Ignore strikeouts. They are not the enemy here. I agree they are bad in certain situations but historically you trade Ks for power. Willie Mays did not shorten up...nor Robby or Mantle. The proper stat to pair with obp in re scoring is SP. High enough slugging with good obp will result in lots of runs. The Reds you call out over and over Frazier and Cozart especially and big time Jay Bruce...are striking out at record clips but not slugging per norms. Add that Mes has been dinking and singling when his minor league forte was slugging and the offense has a problem. Is it strikeouts? Not really other than they are making outs and struggling to drive the ball when they do make contact. 3 of these guys are sophomores and "sophomore jinx" is reality. No curse but the fact teams have a full off season to analyze film and develop full scouting reports. Mes, Frazier and Cozie need to adjust to that...add in the frustrations of the lineup (even Joey seems to be pressing now - ever seen so many bad swings from him as lately? Think he doesn t feel the weight of being the leader?) Frazier? He won't finish hitting .230 but its his sp you need to look at. Same for Cozart. Mes and Bruce I have confidence in. Frazier and Cozart had less impressive minors. Given that Cozart is gold glove caliber just bat him 8th and forget about it. Not his fault Dusty misuses him. Mes will hit and hit for loeer if he gets to play. Dusty again. Frazier has actually played a very very good 3B so far something you continually get wrong Old School. Looking at range and glove he's been quite solid. Again its SP which is all from the first few games. Give me a .500 SP from Todd and he can strikeout all he does and who cares. This is by design a high K high Slugging lineup. Choo was brought to fix the leadoff hole. Everyone else wad supposed to slug at high rates and Walt + company knew there would be scads of Ks. They just figured there'd be lots of doubles and homers as an offset. So far that hasn't proven out.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Not saying that I wouldn't do the trade, but Frazier is currently tied for seventh in the NL in RBI's, which contradicts some of your arguments.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.

    For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.

    You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.

  4. #48
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    You are close but no cigar. Ignore strikeouts. They are not the enemy here. I agree they are bad in certain situations but historically you trade Ks for power. Willie Mays did not shorten up...nor Robby or Mantle. The proper stat to pair with obp in re scoring is SP. High enough slugging with good obp will result in lots of runs. The Reds you call out over and over Frazier and Cozart especially and big time Jay Bruce...are striking out at record clips but not slugging per norms. Add that Mes has been dinking and singling when his minor league forte was slugging and the offense has a problem. Is it strikeouts? Not really other than they are making outs and struggling to drive the ball when they do make contact. 3 of these guys are sophomores and "sophomore jinx" is reality. No curse but the fact teams have a full off season to analyze film and develop full scouting reports. Mes, Frazier and Cozie need to adjust to that...add in the frustrations of the lineup (even Joey seems to be pressing now - ever seen so many bad swings from him as lately? Think he doesn t feel the weight of being the leader?) Frazier? He won't finish hitting .230 but its his sp you need to look at. Same for Cozart. Mes and Bruce I have confidence in. Frazier and Cozart had less impressive minors. Given that Cozart is gold glove caliber just bat him 8th and forget about it. Not his fault Dusty misuses him. Mes will hit and hit for loeer if he gets to play. Dusty again. Frazier has actually played a very very good 3B so far something you continually get wrong Old School. Looking at range and glove he's been quite solid. Again its SP which is all from the first few games. Give me a .500 SP from Todd and he can strikeout all he does and who cares. This is by design a high K high Slugging lineup. Choo was brought to fix the leadoff hole. Everyone else wad supposed to slug at high rates and Walt + company knew there would be scads of Ks. They just figured there'd be lots of doubles and homers as an offset. So far that hasn't proven out.
    What rubbed me the wrong way was that you said you'd rather not have young and leave Frazier at third and the current blackhoke in left. Obp causes base runners which cause RBI opportunities. Right now with cozart in the two spot our sluggers Votto Phillios Bruce and Frazier are not getting the amount if RBI opportunities which, when teamed with the current lack of power and Ks, leads to a situation where it makes the Ks hurt more than normal. Now insert young. Unlike Cy was saying young will be an above average two hole hitter and get in base and create more obp and thus more RBI chances for the sluggers while moving cozart down to 8 where he belongs.

    Furthermore it would play to fraziers strengths which are the ability to play multiple positions(put him in left in a platoon with lutz until one distinguishes himself) and to hit for power. I'm not totally down on Frazier. I think he could be used better. I like your description of the sophomore jinx as well. It's all about adjusting. IMO Frazier isn't going through a jinx though. I really think he overperformed last year (I really hope I'm wrong bc he is a great guy and hard worker and is love to have that on the team if it has production included in it).

    But back to the trade idea. Young for arroyo. You would basically be trading a rental for rental and it could be easily Rgued that the rotation would be better once cueto returns and having cingrani in arroyos place. Even more by trading arroyo you would t be giving up prospects that could be used in a later trade for a power hitting left fielder to further fortify the lineup.

  5. #49
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    I think Arroyo too is too much to give up for Young, but I applaud the OP for floating a different idea out there for discussion.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #50
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I think Arroyo too is too much to give up for Young, but I applaud the OP for floating a different idea out there for discussion.
    Maybe. Could you take a look at the thread I have here about Stanton Headley and fowler. In my last post I made a proposal involving the reds getting Nolasco. I'd like an opinion please. I think it sounds jockettyesque.

  7. #51
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    I like Michael Young as a target especially if the Phillies fall out of things. I doubt that the price is as high as Arroyo. The Phils only sent Texas a AA reliever and the Josh Lindbloom (think Logan Ondrusek) and that was for a 10 million and a full year of Young. I would think the cost for a half season will be less in the Phils are way out of things in a few weeks.

    Young's stats by the way:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...oungmi02.shtml

    .322/.394/.415/.809 would look great in the 2nd spot. 14 bb's, 20 k's
    Last edited by klw; 05-09-2013 at 02:22 PM.

  8. #52
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    I like Michael Young as a target especially if the Phillies fall out of things. I doubt that the price is as high as Arroyo. The Phils only sent Texas a AA reliever and the Josh Lindbloom (think Logan Ondrusek) and that was for a 10 million and a full year of Young. I would think the cost for a half season will be less in the Phils are way out of things in a few weeks.

    Young's stats by the way:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...oungmi02.shtml

    .322/.394/.415/.809 would look great in the 2nd spot. 14 bb's, 20 k's
    I agree.

  9. #53
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    I would not consider giving up Arroyo for Young.

    Yes, I love him like the brother I never had, and that may be clouding my judgement, but his dependability is extremely rare for a MLB pitcher. He will win about 15 games, and is a fierce competitor. Reds have had too many "talents" (Griffey Jr, Dunn, Stubbs, Bruce) over the years and not enough guys who will not go quietly into that good night.

    We depended on Harang, and he went down, we depended on Volquez, and he went down, we depended on Cueto, and he went down. Arroyo has rolled on.

    Oh, and who had our best outing in the playoffs last year? In AT&T, no less.

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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    We have a third basemen and a LF on the roster, no way Reds make that move....

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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Just for ****s and giggles:

    Frazier-.323 wOBA, 1.5 WAR
    Young-.307 wOBA 0.4 WAR

  12. #56
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goose1701 View Post
    Just for ****s and giggles:

    Frazier-.323 wOBA, 1.5 WAR
    Young-.307 wOBA 0.4 WAR
    Youngs obp is 40 points higher. He'd be batting second. I think I'd help out more than a guy batting 6th. And besides you wouldn't give up Frazier for young. Frazier could play left or spot in eslewhere. At this point trading him for arroyo would be a bit much but he'd definitely help to make this team better.

  13. #57
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Michael Young's OPS+ is now 92. Frazier's is 98. Frazier's WAR is 1.1, Young's is -0.4. Young makes the Reds a worse team, not a better one.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Frazier, Cozart, Leake--and whoever the whipping boys in this forum are--for the most part are core players. Their salaries are controllable, and as of now, there are no decent minor leaguers to supplant them.

    An addition of Michael Young makes NO SENSE financially, or what you are trying to build for now and for the next three to four years. Let's say you give away Ondrusek (a controlled arbitration reliever) AND a single-A prospect for two months of Michael Young? Really?

    Plus, depending on when you trade for Young, you are increasing payroll from anywhere to 2 million to 4 million for a player that is marginally better than Frazier.

    Now, that 2 to 4 million could have been spent on keeping the arbitration players and/or signing Choo (not a snow ball's chance in hell--in my opinion).

    However, another way would be to have the Phillies offset the 2 to 4 million--BUT that would be at a cost of a much more highly qualified prospect.

    The Reds are not dealing Frazier, and quite frankly there is no reason to.

    Don Cameron
    A man who whistles in elevators.

  15. #59
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Michael Young's OPS+ is now 92. Frazier's is 98. Frazier's WAR is 1.1, Young's is -0.4. Young makes the Reds a worse team, not a better one.
    Aside from a stat comparison, what about young would make the reds a worse the on the field than Frazier. Especially if Frazier was shifted to left?

    And why in the heck would anyone trade Frazier for young? That's just nuts.

  16. #60
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    Re: Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?

    And the whole he'd only make the team marginally better thing just leaves me scratching my head. Of course don't overpay for a guy like that bit ondrusek wouldn't be a great loss nor would a marginal minor league pitcher. And if you can marginally improve a few spots that adds up to a decent amount. Also maybe that marginal improvement or two we didn't make last year would have lead to one more run in game three of the NLDS. So point being marginal improvements can have major impacts...all at the right price of course. Don't overpay for a marginal improvement.


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