The Cardinals are playing great to start off...but their bullpen is shaky.
Overall the Reds are more talented...but I don't think the team is putting it all together exactly like I expected this season. This was the year I thought Bruce would find some consistency and become an RBI machine, but now I'm left wondering if that will ever happen. The bullpen has been exactly what I expected. But even if the Cardinals are less talented, they always seem to play all the way up to their potential...something the Reds can't seem to do, at least when it counts against good teams.
Old school 1983 (05-12-2013)
The injuries the Reds have had to deal with are hurting the team, but every team has injuries.
The Reds are more talented, especially pitching and defense. The Cards have a good team, but they'll fall back to Earth with that defense. Barring any more injuries the Reds will have the upper hand by the break.
Mujica had a career ERA of around 4 before coming to the Cards. He'll likely end up with one close to that at the end of the year. He's a decent middle reliever, but shouldn't be used consistently in high leverage situations.
The Cards pen is now basically Mujica and a bunch if rookies. If you call that fixing the pen, awesome
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Look at the two teams right now.
The Cards are playing way over their heads in starting pitching. And I mean way over their heads. Their offense is right about where it was expected to be, second in the league. Their defense has been spotty, but hasn't been costing them too many games lately. Over the course of 162, it will cost them plenty.
The Reds are right where expected in both offense and defense. Maybe a bit better on offense than expected, and a bit worse on pitching than expected. Reds are about to get their Ace starter back.
Reds are only three games behind the Cards. I know who'd I rather be right now.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I agree that Beltran has been better than Bruce thus far, but I would much rather have Bruce than Beltran for the rest of the season and for future seasons. Beltran is fragile and presents a greater injury risk. Bruce is much better defensively than Beltran. I think their hitting numbers will look similar at the end of the season, they can both hit.
I say it would considering that it looks to have worked thus far.
I remember last season people saying "oh we're waiting for that bloop and blast to shoot up his ERA and return to his norm". That didn't happen. He's pitching lights out this year and the Cardinals are using him differently than how he was used in FL. As fangraphs shows, the Cardinals pretty much eliminated the FA (I think it's 4 seam fastball) from his pitch selection to where it's a minor pitch he uses and completely eliminated his change up. Both pitches were being hammered before he came to the Cardinals. You can keep hoping he blows up though.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...970&position=P
Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-12-2013 at 04:08 AM.
I think it's safe to say the Cardinals are overachieving right now and the Reds are underachieving.
Beltran will break down and so will the Cards. Their pitching will come back to Earth too.
foxfire123 (05-13-2013),Old school 1983 (05-12-2013)
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm sick of hearing about the Cardinals.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
foxfire123 (05-13-2013),New Fever (05-12-2013)
Good stuff.
I give Phillips a bigger edge. Best second baseman in the game, IMO. I'll also take Bruce over Beltran, unless Beltran is going to revert back to the player he was several years back. He's been hot so far, but I don't think he sustains it, while Jay is just heating up. Plus, their age difference is huge.
Cards starters have an 80.4 LOB% and a 5.6% HR/FB ratio.They are outperforming their xFIP by 1.17 runs. Not trying to be a homer but it's hard to say they have a reasonable chance at sustaining that.
Their K rates and BB rates are comparable to the Reds starters. The big difference so far this year has been the longball. In about the same number of IP Cards starters have given up 10 where as Reds starters have given up 28.
Their pen has been used less than any in the NL (84 IP). Its hard to imagine they A) get away with that all year and B) that we can tell if anything is "fixed" or broken yet.
The Cards offense leads the NL in BABIP but it's a reasonable .308. They also lead the NL in BAwRISP .322. Despite all that the Reds offense has scored more runs and they are essentially identical in wOBA.
162 games will reveal all flaws, I think the Cards have more than they have shown to date, specifically in their starting rotation. At least I hope they do.
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