C'mon... you know better than to state small sample fielding stats without any kind of analysis from scouting reports. Fielding stats are almost completely irrelevant in that short term a viewpoint.
Basically every scouting report I've read on the guy has him, at best, an average fielding SS due to a lack of range. Cozart is considered above that, and it showed over the course of a full season in the majors to boot.
Again, I think Cozart is fine, but certainly not a fantastic starter. I just don't seee how one could dislike Cozart so much, and still even attempt to form an argument in favour of Kozma. It just doesn't add up.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
MikeThierry (05-14-2013)
Why does career ERA or FIP have to do with anything in this discussion considering that Broxton has been regressing since 2010? Granted, Broxton did have a decent year last year but he's looking a lot this year like that 4+ ERA, 4+ FIP pitcher we have been seeing the past couple of years now.
The stats shows that Rosenthal has more talent now than Broxton. He's posting up a 12.8 SO/9 right now and a 133 ERA+. Call me crazy, but I would rather have someone with the best talent and stuff coming out of the bullpen in the 8th or 9th than someone with veteran presence.
I was looking at fangraphs and something completely took me by surprise. Matt Carpenter leads all 2B in WAR with a 1.7. I never thought that would happen. That should regress to some mean, which I don't know where it is, but right now, the Cardinals are getting the best 2B production that they've had in years.
The Cardinals have the talent to take 2nd place and win the World Series.
The Reds have the talent to take 1st and get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
*BaseClogger* (05-15-2013),757690 (05-15-2013)
Broxton had one bad game where he took one for the team and give up six runs in one inning. Take away that one game and he's got close to a 1 ERA. He's actually been more effective this season than Rosenthal, not that that means much. Broxton has given up earned runs in only three appearances so far this season, while Rosenthal has given up runs in five appearances. To me, that's the best way to judge how effffive a relief pitcher has been.
But again, when looking at talent, it's meaningless to judge it on six weeks worth of play. You look at a whole a career. When you do that, Broxton and Rosenthal have shown similar talent.
If you consider Brixton's "downward" trend, (it really isn't there, he just was hurt for awhile) you also have to consider that Rosenthal is a rookie. Players tend to do much better than their actual talent level the first time a league sees them. Considering Rosenthal has been used in relief, that means his "career" numbers are even more suspect. Many relievers with middling talent have been very effective for a few years before the league catches up with them. History tells us that Rosenhal is due for a correction, at some point in the future, unless he too adjusts to the league's adjustment to him.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
What are you talking about?
I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that spouting a few defensive stats completely compromised by a small sample size makes what you are advertising as representing "what's going on the field right now" is not a reasonable argument. The inventors of these stats would be the first to say that you need about 3 years s worth of data for them to be reliably used to measure a player's defensive value. There are numerous examples that illustrate why they are not a reliable indicator in a small sample size.
Here's what we know:
1. Kozma is a pathetically bad hitter so matter how you spin it
2. There is little evidence that suggests that Kozma has above average speed for a SS
3. Kozma has been heralded as being a middling fielding SS by basically everyone in the field of prospect ranking
I don't think he magically learned how to gain range at the major league level. It's not a usual skill that grows over time. Simply put, when the scouts start noticing his fielding, or his stats prove out over a long sample size, I'll be a believer. In the end, the best evidence that we currently have is how he's been viewed coming up the pipeline Sorry, a few months of defensive stats doesn't turn him into a defensive stud.
At the moment, you are arguing that Kozma is better than Cozart because Kozma has like 0.2 WAR. What exactly is your point? At the very best, that is merely an indictment of how bad Cozart has struggled so far. Even in your greatest spin of Kozma he has 0.2 WAR. That's a problem. Imagine when he starts slumping!
I think it's awesome when someone uses advanced stats like WAR, UZR and FIP when it fits the story they're telling, after years of dismissing them when it didn't
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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