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Thread: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

  1. #16
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I don't think any of those players were considered the top pitching prospect in baseball at any points in their minor league careers. Shelby Miller was ranked where he was for a reason. I'm not saying he will be THIS good but he has front of the rotation stuff. He's getting it done now with his fastball/curve and has yet to expose teams to his pretty good change up.
    While Shelby Miller has certainly been highly rated, he's never been considered the top pitching prospect in baseball.

    Baseball America had him #3 coming into this season.

    I'm a big fan of his and he's as good as you say, but you don't need to overstate his case.

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  3. #17
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Maness is a stud?

    Who knew?
    He didn't have a great year in AAA but he barely walks people and his WHIP in the minor leagues has always been rather good. He's a stud compared to the other relievers the Cardinals have had.

    Carolos Martinez is legit.
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  4. #18
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    The Cardinals are playing great to start off...but their bullpen is shaky.

    Overall the Reds are more talented...but I don't think the team is putting it all together exactly like I expected this season. This was the year I thought Bruce would find some consistency and become an RBI machine, but now I'm left wondering if that will ever happen. The bullpen has been exactly what I expected. But even if the Cardinals are less talented, they always seem to play all the way up to their potential...something the Reds can't seem to do, at least when it counts against good teams.

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  6. #19
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    The injuries the Reds have had to deal with are hurting the team, but every team has injuries.

    The Reds are more talented, especially pitching and defense. The Cards have a good team, but they'll fall back to Earth with that defense. Barring any more injuries the Reds will have the upper hand by the break.

  7. #20
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I've been on record here saying that the bullpen will cost them the division. That's before the recent moves they have made though. Adding Mujica as the closer and bringing up two studs including Carlos Martinez has really solidified the pen. Rosenthal has been pitching great as of late. The Cardinals didn't wait until July to fix their pen like they did the previous two years. If they were going to stick with the group they had, I would agree with you but the paradigm shifted when they brought in more talented pitchers.
    Mujica had a career ERA of around 4 before coming to the Cards. He'll likely end up with one close to that at the end of the year. He's a decent middle reliever, but shouldn't be used consistently in high leverage situations.

    The Cards pen is now basically Mujica and a bunch if rookies. If you call that fixing the pen, awesome
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Look at the two teams right now.

    The Cards are playing way over their heads in starting pitching. And I mean way over their heads. Their offense is right about where it was expected to be, second in the league. Their defense has been spotty, but hasn't been costing them too many games lately. Over the course of 162, it will cost them plenty.

    The Reds are right where expected in both offense and defense. Maybe a bit better on offense than expected, and a bit worse on pitching than expected. Reds are about to get their Ace starter back.

    Reds are only three games behind the Cards. I know who'd I rather be right now.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #22
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post

    I completely disagree with you about Bruce. Though Bruce is playing slightly better, even though Bruce is having a down defensive year, Beltran's offense puts him over the top right now. In fact, according to Fangraphs, Bruce is having a -.4 WAR season thus far compared to Beltran's .8. There's no question in my mind who is better right now.
    I agree that Beltran has been better than Bruce thus far, but I would much rather have Bruce than Beltran for the rest of the season and for future seasons. Beltran is fragile and presents a greater injury risk. Bruce is much better defensively than Beltran. I think their hitting numbers will look similar at the end of the season, they can both hit.

  10. #23
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Mujica had a career ERA of around 4 before coming to the Cards. He'll likely end up with one close to that at the end of the year. He's a decent middle reliever, but shouldn't be used consistently in high leverage situations.

    The Cards pen is now basically Mujica and a bunch if rookies. If you call that fixing the pen, awesome
    I say it would considering that it looks to have worked thus far.

    I remember last season people saying "oh we're waiting for that bloop and blast to shoot up his ERA and return to his norm". That didn't happen. He's pitching lights out this year and the Cardinals are using him differently than how he was used in FL. As fangraphs shows, the Cardinals pretty much eliminated the FA (I think it's 4 seam fastball) from his pitch selection to where it's a minor pitch he uses and completely eliminated his change up. Both pitches were being hammered before he came to the Cardinals. You can keep hoping he blows up though.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...970&position=P
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-12-2013 at 04:08 AM.
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  11. #24
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Maness is a stud?

    Who knew?
    10 BB in 170 innings last year is pretty studly

  12. #25
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    ]
    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    10 BB in 170 innings last year is pretty studly
    18 HR's over those same innings ain't.

    He actually should do fine once around the league, but if he's a stud, then Carlos Fisher is Ryan Gosling
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #26
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    I think it's safe to say the Cardinals are overachieving right now and the Reds are underachieving.

    Beltran will break down and so will the Cards. Their pitching will come back to Earth too.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  15. #27
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    I don't know about anybody else, but I'm sick of hearing about the Cardinals.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    foxfire123 (05-13-2013), New Fever (05-12-2013)

  17. #28
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I don't know about anybody else, but I'm sick of hearing about the Cardinals.
    Well, I would say I am as well, but they are our biggest rival now and definitely our biggest threat in the division. Probably not going to be able to avoid discussing them for the foreseeable future.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  18. #29
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    Let's break it down.

    Catcher: Yadier all day. Best in the league not named Buster.
    First Base: Big advantage Reds.
    Second Base: I take the Reds, but it's closer than you might think. Matt Carpenter is showing his potential at the plate.
    Third Base: Advantage Cards, but a big year from Frazier could make this at least a tie.
    Shortstop: Who knows? It's probably a wash, but I'll give a slight edge to Cozart because of glove and experience.
    Left field: Holliday, Holliday, Holliday. Even when Ludwick is healthy.
    Center field: Give me Choo seven days a week and twice Sundays. I know the defensive range is horrendous, but that dude flat rakes.
    Right field: Beltran. It pains me to say that, but Bruce just isn't there yet. Now that Beltran has been relatively healthy the last couple years, you've got to take him.

    #1 Starter: Wainwright is trying to make me choose him, but I'll take Cueto by a braid. Open to criticism here.
    #2 Starter: Latos over Garcia, and it's not particularly close.
    #3 Starter: I'm giving a tie to Westbrook and Arroyo. We know who Bronson is--I'm not sure we've seen the real Jake Westbrook recently. Smoke and mirrors.
    #4 Starter: Probably Lynn, although some of his K/BB success is probably due to coming from the pen. It's close. Homer could prove me wrong.
    #5 Starter: I feel confident just saying Shelby Miller by a mile. Any objections? I didn't think so.

    Bullpen: We don't even need to break this one down. Reds pen makes the Cards pen look like the Bad News Bears.

    After a completely arbitrary tally system, I'll give a slight edge to the Reds, but there's a reason these two have been battling for the better part of four seasons. A worthy rival, that's for sure. Feel free to rip my rankings--I did this in like 6 minutes.
    Good stuff.

    I give Phillips a bigger edge. Best second baseman in the game, IMO. I'll also take Bruce over Beltran, unless Beltran is going to revert back to the player he was several years back. He's been hot so far, but I don't think he sustains it, while Jay is just heating up. Plus, their age difference is huge.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  19. #30
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Cards starters have an 80.4 LOB% and a 5.6% HR/FB ratio.They are outperforming their xFIP by 1.17 runs. Not trying to be a homer but it's hard to say they have a reasonable chance at sustaining that.

    Their K rates and BB rates are comparable to the Reds starters. The big difference so far this year has been the longball. In about the same number of IP Cards starters have given up 10 where as Reds starters have given up 28.

    Their pen has been used less than any in the NL (84 IP). Its hard to imagine they A) get away with that all year and B) that we can tell if anything is "fixed" or broken yet.

    The Cards offense leads the NL in BABIP but it's a reasonable .308. They also lead the NL in BAwRISP .322. Despite all that the Reds offense has scored more runs and they are essentially identical in wOBA.

    162 games will reveal all flaws, I think the Cards have more than they have shown to date, specifically in their starting rotation. At least I hope they do.


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