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Thread: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

  1. #166
    Member Magdal's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    You want to compare talent? Here's something to concider: I'm stating here and now the the NL MVP will go to either Votto or Molina. Winning the Div. may just tip the scales as the 2 are very even statwise, with Joey the power and Yadi the defense.

    The Brews' Braun has NO shot, even if he hit .400 and won the 3 Crown. Posie would have to have a MONSTER year to repeat. He's not having one yet.

    So that's another thing that will help to make this a very memorable year for Cincy and St. Lou, and maybe even Pittsburg. (sorry McCutchen)
    Last edited by Magdal; 05-30-2013 at 01:54 AM.

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  3. #167
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Magdal View Post
    You want to compare talent? Here's something to concider: I'm stating here and now the the NL MVP will go to either Votto or Molina. Winning the Div. may just tip the scales as the 2 are very even statwise, with Joey the power and Yadi the defense.

    The Brews' Braun has NO shot, even if he hit .400 and won the 3 Crown. Posie would have to have a MONSTER year to repeat. He's not having one yet.

    So that's another thing that will help to make this a very memorable year for Cincy and St. Lou, and maybe even Pittsburg.
    If Molina wins a batting title and the Cards win the division, he will get the MVP.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  4. #168
    Member Magdal's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    If Molina wins a batting title and the Cards win the division, he will get the MVP.
    True, but ditto for Votto.

  5. #169
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    2013 team fWAR (bats & gloves + pitching)
    Reds: 9.6 + 5.5 = 15.1
    Cards: 6.9 + 7.9 = 14.8

    I think this is pretty interesting.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  6. #170
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    WAR

    Votto: 3.4

    Molina: 1.9

    OPS

    Votto:1.036

    Molina: .875

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  8. #171
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    The whole reds cardinals comparison thing drives me a little nuts. Sure it's definitely a good thing to keep up with rival organizations and maybe even learn from what they do well. But to me it doesn't matter which organization is more talented, it matters which organization can best translate that talent into wins on the field.

  9. #172
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    2013 team fWAR (bats & gloves + pitching)
    Reds: 9.6 + 5.5 = 15.1
    Cards: 6.9 + 7.9 = 14.8

    I think this is pretty interesting.
    I'm not a big fan of using WAR to predict team wins.

    2012 fangraphs WAR (offense + pitching)
    Reds: 21.9 + 20.1 = 42.0
    Cardinals: 29.0 + 16.8 = 45.8

    This excludes fielding because I couldn't find a fWAR or dWAR stat, but the Reds won the division by 9 games. I would expect them to be leading here if WAR was useful for predicting team wins. On baseballreference.com its Reds 43.4, Cardinals 43.0.
    Last edited by Beltway; 05-30-2013 at 10:51 AM.

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  11. #173
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    WAR

    Votto: 3.4

    Molina: 1.9

    OPS

    Votto:1.036

    Molina: .875
    As the voters last year proved in the AL MVP voting race, that they don't use WAR to determine the MVP. Plus, I think when you're talking about a catcher, it's a bit difficult to look solely at WAR to determine how good someone at the catcher position is. Fangraphs even admits to that. With how many rookie starting pitchers the Cardinals have used, Molina's value goes beyond simply looking at the numbers.

    EDIT: I also can't remember the last time a catcher won the batting title yet didn't win the MVP. Even if Votto has a higher OPS and a higher WAR, if the Cardinals win the Central and Molina wins the batting title, history is on Molina's side as to who will get the edge in the MVP voting.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-30-2013 at 02:10 PM.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  12. #174
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    I'm not a big fan of using WAR to predict team wins.

    2012 fangraphs WAR (offense + pitching)
    Reds: 21.9 + 20.1 = 42.0
    Cardinals: 29.0 + 16.8 = 45.8

    This excludes fielding because I couldn't find a fWAR or dWAR stat, but the Reds won the division by 9 games. I would expect them to be leading here if WAR was useful for predicting team wins. On baseballreference.com its Reds 43.4, Cardinals 43.0.
    Interesting that you brought that up. If you look at the Cardinals run differential last year, the Cardinals should have had a better record than what their actual record showed. A +117 run differential isn't normal to have for an 88 win team and I think the WAR you pointed out kind of alludes to that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if what the Cardinals are doing this year is sort of a correction (I'm having a hard time finding the right word to use). It's no surprise that the Cardinals have the best run differential in baseball right now and they have the best record.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  13. #175
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    If Molina wins a batting title and the Cards win the division ...
    Neither are going to happen.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

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  15. #176
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    I'm not a big fan of using WAR to predict team wins.

    2012 fangraphs WAR (offense + pitching)
    Reds: 21.9 + 20.1 = 42.0
    Cardinals: 29.0 + 16.8 = 45.8

    This excludes fielding because I couldn't find a fWAR or dWAR stat, but the Reds won the division by 9 games. I would expect them to be leading here if WAR was useful for predicting team wins. On baseballreference.com its Reds 43.4, Cardinals 43.0.
    WAR is descriptive; it's not really a predictive measure.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  17. #177
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    WAR is descriptive; it's not really a predictive measure.
    It's not descriptive at a team level. There is too much error.

  18. #178
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    As the voters last year proved in the AL MVP voting race, that they don't use WAR to determine the MVP. Plus, I think when you're talking about a catcher, it's a bit difficult to look solely at WAR to determine how good someone at the catcher position is. Fangraphs even admits to that. With how many rookie starting pitchers the Cardinals have used, Molina's value goes beyond simply looking at the numbers.

    EDIT: I also can't remember the last time a catcher won the batting title yet didn't win the MVP. Even if Votto has a higher OPS and a higher WAR, if the Cardinals win the Central and Molina wins the batting title, history is on Molina's side as to who will get the edge in the MVP voting.
    I think Cabrera completing the first triple crown in 5 decades was the determining factor.

  19. #179
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    It's not descriptive at a team level. There is too much error.
    Why not? It describes the value you've gotten thus far.

    The point I was making was that the Cards and Reds have gotten similar value from their players thus far this season.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  20. #180
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Again, is it too early to settle the debate on who will be better: Rosenthal vs. Broxton?
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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