Turn Off Ads?
Page 6 of 13 FirstFirst ... 2345678910 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 192

Thread: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

  1. #76
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    San Jose
    Posts
    1,178

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Garcia's career ERA in 4 years of starting in the majors is 3.33 ERA. His regression would still put him as one of the best left handed starters in baseball. The statistics back that up.
    Unfortunately for Garcia his periods of "regression" have been growing in duration each season.

    We'll see weather he holds to his career ERA this season or not. I predict not. Not a sure thing, but I feel fairly confident in my prediction.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #77
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,943

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I guess where I'm coming from on this argument is that I don't think Reds fans have any room to talk, right now as it stands, about horrible SS options. I think the above poster is a bit harsh considering that there are a lot of teams with worse players playing on their team. Heck... the Mets just signed Rick Ankiel as a CF option and I certainly think Kozma is a better starter than him. I'm also scratching my head at the "isn't much of a rangy guy" comment. He's currently putting up a 1 UZR right now and put up a 2.6 UZR in limited time last season at SS. While he isn't an elite defensive SS like a Tulo or a Brendan Ryan, the numbers suggest that he does have above average range for a SS.
    C'mon... you know better than to state small sample fielding stats without any kind of analysis from scouting reports. Fielding stats are almost completely irrelevant in that short term a viewpoint.

    Basically every scouting report I've read on the guy has him, at best, an average fielding SS due to a lack of range. Cozart is considered above that, and it showed over the course of a full season in the majors to boot.

    Again, I think Cozart is fine, but certainly not a fantastic starter. I just don't seee how one could dislike Cozart so much, and still even attempt to form an argument in favour of Kozma. It just doesn't add up.

  4. #78
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,014

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Garcia's career ERA in 4 years of starting in the majors is 3.33 ERA. His regression would still put him as one of the best left handed starters in baseball. The statistics back that up.
    Garcia's a good pitcher, when on the mound. Problem is, he doesn't last long in games, and has a history of arm injury. Garcia's regression will be that he doesn't give the Cardinals enough innings.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #79
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    South of Cincinnati
    Posts
    2,216

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    Advanced scouting / game plan -- Cardinals

    Thinking how good Edwin Jackson (only 29) looked with the Cards, and how bad he looks now with the Cubs.

    Throw in the fact that Jake Westbrook's ERA right now is 1.62 despite having 19 K's and 18 BB's in 39 Innings with a Whip at 1.46.
    "I went down to the Crossroads, fell down on my knees... "
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  6. #80
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    401

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by smixsell View Post
    Unfortunately for Garcia his periods of "regression" have been growing in duration each season.

    We'll see weather he holds to his career ERA this season or not. I predict not. Not a sure thing, but I feel fairly confident in my prediction.
    Please explain, because his peripherals are fine/getting better.

  7. Likes:

    MikeThierry (05-14-2013)

  8. #81
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,693

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Broxton and Rosenthal have nearly identical career ERA's and FIP's. Talent seems to be about the same. Being able to throw harder doesn't mean more talent or that you're better.

    Broxton has been a solid MLB closer for four seasons, on two different teams. He has over 100 saves in his career. he would be the Reds closer if not for Chapman. In a big game, coming in to protect a led or a tie in the 8th, I want a guy who has the most experience, whose actually been a closer, over a kid who throws hard.
    Why does career ERA or FIP have to do with anything in this discussion considering that Broxton has been regressing since 2010? Granted, Broxton did have a decent year last year but he's looking a lot this year like that 4+ ERA, 4+ FIP pitcher we have been seeing the past couple of years now.

    The stats shows that Rosenthal has more talent now than Broxton. He's posting up a 12.8 SO/9 right now and a 133 ERA+. Call me crazy, but I would rather have someone with the best talent and stuff coming out of the bullpen in the 8th or 9th than someone with veteran presence.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  9. #82
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,693

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    C'mon... you know better than to state small sample fielding stats without any kind of analysis from scouting reports. Fielding stats are almost completely irrelevant in that short term a viewpoint.

    Basically every scouting report I've read on the guy has him, at best, an average fielding SS due to a lack of range. Cozart is considered above that, and it showed over the course of a full season in the majors to boot.

    Again, I think Cozart is fine, but certainly not a fantastic starter. I just don't seee how one could dislike Cozart so much, and still even attempt to form an argument in favour of Kozma. It just doesn't add up.
    So you're basing your whole argument on scouting reports instead of what's actually going on in the field right now at the major league level? And you're saying my argument doesn't add up?
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  10. #83
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,693

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    I was looking at fangraphs and something completely took me by surprise. Matt Carpenter leads all 2B in WAR with a 1.7. I never thought that would happen. That should regress to some mean, which I don't know where it is, but right now, the Cardinals are getting the best 2B production that they've had in years.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  11. #84
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    San Jose
    Posts
    1,178

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    Please explain, because his peripherals are fine/getting better.
    His periods of relative ineffectiveness on the mound are getting longer each year.

  12. #85
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,693

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by smixsell View Post
    His periods of relative ineffectiveness on the mound are getting longer each year.
    Exactly where are you getting this information or rather what are you even talking about?
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  13. #86
    They call me "chef"
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    952

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    The Cardinals have the talent to take 2nd place and win the World Series.

    The Reds have the talent to take 1st and get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
    Cincinnati Reds 2014 W-L Record: 76.6-85.4*

    Cincinnati Reds 2015 W-L Record: TBA

    *UPDATED: 2/11/2014

  14. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (05-15-2013), 757690 (05-15-2013)

  15. #87
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,014

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Why does career ERA or FIP have to do with anything in this discussion considering that Broxton has been regressing since 2010? Granted, Broxton did have a decent year last year but he's looking a lot this year like that 4+ ERA, 4+ FIP pitcher we have been seeing the past couple of years now.

    The stats shows that Rosenthal has more talent now than Broxton. He's posting up a 12.8 SO/9 right now and a 133 ERA+. Call me crazy, but I would rather have someone with the best talent and stuff coming out of the bullpen in the 8th or 9th than someone with veteran presence.
    Broxton had one bad game where he took one for the team and give up six runs in one inning. Take away that one game and he's got close to a 1 ERA. He's actually been more effective this season than Rosenthal, not that that means much. Broxton has given up earned runs in only three appearances so far this season, while Rosenthal has given up runs in five appearances. To me, that's the best way to judge how effffive a relief pitcher has been.


    But again, when looking at talent, it's meaningless to judge it on six weeks worth of play. You look at a whole a career. When you do that, Broxton and Rosenthal have shown similar talent.

    If you consider Brixton's "downward" trend, (it really isn't there, he just was hurt for awhile) you also have to consider that Rosenthal is a rookie. Players tend to do much better than their actual talent level the first time a league sees them. Considering Rosenthal has been used in relief, that means his "career" numbers are even more suspect. Many relievers with middling talent have been very effective for a few years before the league catches up with them. History tells us that Rosenhal is due for a correction, at some point in the future, unless he too adjusts to the league's adjustment to him.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #88
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,014

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I was looking at fangraphs and something completely took me by surprise. Matt Carpenter leads all 2B in WAR with a 1.7. I never thought that would happen. That should regress to some mean, which I don't know where it is, but right now, the Cardinals are getting the best 2B production that they've had in years.
    It's all because he's been a +5 UZR on defense, which is absurdly high for one month. That will be corrected probably in another month. He was a -5 UZR last year on defense, and is at best neutral over all at 2B on defense, and that's being very generous.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  17. #89
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,943

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    So you're basing your whole argument on scouting reports instead of what's actually going on in the field right now at the major league level? And you're saying my argument doesn't add up?
    What are you talking about?

    I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that spouting a few defensive stats completely compromised by a small sample size makes what you are advertising as representing "what's going on the field right now" is not a reasonable argument. The inventors of these stats would be the first to say that you need about 3 years s worth of data for them to be reliably used to measure a player's defensive value. There are numerous examples that illustrate why they are not a reliable indicator in a small sample size.

    Here's what we know:

    1. Kozma is a pathetically bad hitter so matter how you spin it
    2. There is little evidence that suggests that Kozma has above average speed for a SS
    3. Kozma has been heralded as being a middling fielding SS by basically everyone in the field of prospect ranking


    I don't think he magically learned how to gain range at the major league level. It's not a usual skill that grows over time. Simply put, when the scouts start noticing his fielding, or his stats prove out over a long sample size, I'll be a believer. In the end, the best evidence that we currently have is how he's been viewed coming up the pipeline Sorry, a few months of defensive stats doesn't turn him into a defensive stud.

    At the moment, you are arguing that Kozma is better than Cozart because Kozma has like 0.2 WAR. What exactly is your point? At the very best, that is merely an indictment of how bad Cozart has struggled so far. Even in your greatest spin of Kozma he has 0.2 WAR. That's a problem. Imagine when he starts slumping!

  18. #90
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,014

    Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

    I think it's awesome when someone uses advanced stats like WAR, UZR and FIP when it fits the story they're telling, after years of dismissing them when it didn't
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25