Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 23

Thread: Report card.....Reality check

  1. #1
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,560

    Report card.....Reality check

    Reds, at 22-16 have the 3rd best record in the NL....2 games behind the Cards. I happen to be optimistic, that they will have equal or better results throughout the rest of the year.

    Here's why.

    Pitching.
    Our ace has been on the DL for an extended period of time.
    Latos is the only starter with better than expected results (throw in Cingrani as well)
    Homer has been below expectations, Leake and Arroyo about right on the mark.

    Just coming off a streak of 9 straight games without a quality start.....not typical for this rotation.

    Grade: C+

    Bullpen
    Has been solid, but not quite yet as good as they may be. Nobody lighting it up just yet, although I would say LeCure has pitched well above expectations.....and I think that will continue to be who he is.

    Grade: B

    Hitting
    Starting left fielder and cleanup hitter has played one game.
    Choo is the only hitter who has been hot.
    Votto, Frazier and Phillips are right where they should be, despite Joey's minor power outage, and Frazier's average.
    Bruce is not near where he should be.
    Cozart, Hanigan and Heisey have been flat out bad.
    Mes and Lutz have been ok....a few big hits for both of them, but nothing lights out by any means.

    Grade: C

    Bench
    Quite a pleasant surprise. Near the top of the bigs in all categories.....and seem to be consistently getting good at bats. Hannahan, Izturis, Lutz, Mes, and Paul give plenty of very solid late game options....both at the plate and in the field

    Grade: A-

    Defense
    Solid overall. Spectacular at time, but quite a few surprising errors on occasion. I believe the spectacular plays will continue, and the team will be more consistent overall on the routine plays.

    Grade: B

    Overall, I guess I'd give these guys around a B-....and that is based on their actual performance vs. their potential.
    I'm also glad to see they have established good depth for the rotation and bench. Some guys in Louisville will contribute before the year is done.

    22-16......seems like an extremely solid record for how they've played, and great confidence that they will only get better.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  2. Likes:

    CarolinaRedleg (05-15-2013), HeatherC1212 (05-15-2013), herbdizzle (05-13-2013), marcshoe (05-12-2013), MikeThierry (05-12-2013), New York Red (05-13-2013), OldRightHander (05-12-2013), RedsManRick (05-12-2013), remdog (05-13-2013), Revering4Blue (05-13-2013), RFS62 (05-15-2013), Tom Servo (05-12-2013), WildcatFan (05-12-2013), wolfboy (05-13-2013), _Sir_Charles_ (05-12-2013)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #2
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    1,747

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Solid writeup....I agree on a lot of the points, too. If this Reds team fires on all cylinders simultaneously, they're going to be dangerous.

  5. #3
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    West Chester
    Posts
    2,415

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Hitting grade should be higher IMO. The Reds lead the NL in runs scored and are second in OBP. I can't imagine they're doing that with their C game.

  6. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    913

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Hitting grade should be higher IMO. The Reds lead the NL in runs scored and are second in OBP. I can't imagine they're doing that with their C game.
    I agree. The slugging is a little low especially considering the home ballpark, but the Reds are 5th in MLB in OBP (2nd in the NL) and 12th in wOBA (4th in NL). I think the lack of power and multitude of games where they score 2 or less runs are a bit of a concern. Yet I would go higher than a C if you grade on a curve. There are a lot of teams struggling with offense this year.

  7. #5
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,560

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Hitting grade should be higher IMO. The Reds lead the NL in runs scored and are second in OBP. I can't imagine they're doing that with their C game.
    Perhaps it should be higher, I just tried to keep it compared to where their potential is.....which I believe has a lot of room.

    They've had a few huge games with runs.....but also had half of their games where they score 3 or fewer runs.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  8. #6
    Member Beatlessp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    106

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    This team is 4th in the NL in doubles...several of which will start to fly out during the warmer summer months.....this offense hasn't even started to heat up yet...

  9. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Seems like a fair assessment to me. When your team isn't playing up to potential and it's on a 94 win pace, that's a good sign.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. Likes:

    bigredmechanism (05-13-2013), HeatherC1212 (05-15-2013)

  11. #8
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,638

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    One thing to keep in perspective about the low scoring games...as a percent of games played the Reds are right on the average for the whole league. Yet they're above average in high scoring games...we are now fully in a pitchers era, imo, and overall this offense is playing pretty well with SS and C hitting poorly, the RF slugger just now showing signs of coming out of his season long slump to date, a cobbled together 3 man platoon in left, Frazier more cold than hot and Votto not yet up to his par power wise. That ain't bad and I think it's going to get a lot better.

  12. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    913

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    One thing to keep in perspective about the low scoring games...as a percent of games played the Reds are right on the average for the whole league. Yet they're above average in high scoring games...we are now fully in a pitchers era, imo, and overall this offense is playing pretty well with SS and C hitting poorly, the RF slugger just now showing signs of coming out of his season long slump to date, a cobbled together 3 man platoon in left, Frazier more cold than hot and Votto not yet up to his par power wise. That ain't bad and I think it's going to get a lot better.
    It also doesn't help the Reds had half of their games against 4 of the top 5 NL pitching teams.

  13. #10
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,560

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    One thing to keep in perspective about the low scoring games...as a percent of games played the Reds are right on the average for the whole league. Yet they're above average in high scoring games...we are now fully in a pitchers era, imo, and overall this offense is playing pretty well with SS and C hitting poorly, the RF slugger just now showing signs of coming out of his season long slump to date, a cobbled together 3 man platoon in left, Frazier more cold than hot and Votto not yet up to his par power wise. That ain't bad and I think it's going to get a lot better.
    I was wondering what league average might be, sounds like you've found a spot that has that stat?
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  14. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    1,735

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    Reds, at 22-16 have the 3rd best record in the NL....2 games behind the Cards. I happen to be optimistic, that they will have equal or better results throughout the rest of the year.

    Here's why.

    Pitching.
    Our ace has been on the DL for an extended period of time.
    Latos is the only starter with better than expected results (throw in Cingrani as well)
    Homer has been below expectations, Leake and Arroyo about right on the mark.

    Just coming off a streak of 9 straight games without a quality start.....not typical for this rotation.

    Grade: C+

    Bullpen
    Has been solid, but not quite yet as good as they may be. Nobody lighting it up just yet, although I would say LeCure has pitched well above expectations.....and I think that will continue to be who he is.

    Grade: B

    Hitting
    Starting left fielder and cleanup hitter has played one game.
    Choo is the only hitter who has been hot.
    Votto, Frazier and Phillips are right where they should be, despite Joey's minor power outage, and Frazier's average.
    Bruce is not near where he should be.
    Cozart, Hanigan and Heisey have been flat out bad.
    Mes and Lutz have been ok....a few big hits for both of them, but nothing lights out by any means.

    Grade: C

    Bench
    Quite a pleasant surprise. Near the top of the bigs in all categories.....and seem to be consistently getting good at bats. Hannahan, Izturis, Lutz, Mes, and Paul give plenty of very solid late game options....both at the plate and in the field

    Grade: A-

    Defense
    Solid overall. Spectacular at time, but quite a few surprising errors on occasion. I believe the spectacular plays will continue, and the team will be more consistent overall on the routine plays.

    Grade: B

    Overall, I guess I'd give these guys around a B-....and that is based on their actual performance vs. their potential.
    I'm also glad to see they have established good depth for the rotation and bench. Some guys in Louisville will contribute before the year is done.

    22-16......seems like an extremely solid record for how they've played, and great confidence that they will only get better.
    Great post, VR.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  15. Likes:

    VR (05-13-2013)

  16. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,484

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Since we're talking reality check, here, how many months does Choo get before they move him to Left Field permanently?

    He's next to dead last in the Majors among Centerfielders in UZR/150 at -30.2 (Matt Kemp is worse).

    Xavier Paul and Chris Heisey are 3rd and 5th respectively among National League Left-fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Left.

    Jay Bruce is 12th in the National League among Right Fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Right. Bruce's UZR/150 is -2.6.

    They can all be looked up here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=24,d

    Would Choo be offended being put in Left? Would he be thankful to be back in familiar ground?

    Heisey can play Center, and I've always felt that he can play it as good as Stubbs, if not better. Stubbs isn't exactly tearing it up in Cleveland defensively this year.

    When Hamilton is ready, shouldn't he play Center anyway? If this is the case, why even go through this experiment of having Choo play Center? Certainly they would have to be interested in retaining his services beyond this season, considering how much they gave up to get him. If I wanted Choo beyond 2013, I never would have considered playing him in Center with a very capable Heisey available to play Center and a very capable Hamilton on his way.

    If Choo doesn't improve Defensively significantly by the end of June, I would put him in Left to stay and then roll the dice with Heisey and Paul in Center.

  17. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,484

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    FWIW, Fangraphs has Frazier as #2 among NL 3rd Base Starters (min 160 Innings) with UZR/150.

    Phillips is #3 overall among NL 2nd Base Starters (min 160 Innings).

    Cozart is #4 overall among NL SS Starters (min 160 Inngins).

    Votto is #5 overall among NL 1B Starters (min 160 Innings).

  18. #14
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,703

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Since we're talking reality check, here, how many months does Choo get before they move him to Left Field permanently?

    He's next to dead last in the Majors among Centerfielders in UZR/150 at -30.2 (Matt Kemp is worse).

    Xavier Paul and Chris Heisey are 3rd and 5th respectively among National League Left-fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Left.

    Jay Bruce is 12th in the National League among Right Fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Right. Bruce's UZR/150 is -2.6.

    They can all be looked up here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=24,d

    Would Choo be offended being put in Left? Would he be thankful to be back in familiar ground?

    Heisey can play Center, and I've always felt that he can play it as good as Stubbs, if not better. Stubbs isn't exactly tearing it up in Cleveland defensively this year.

    When Hamilton is ready, shouldn't he play Center anyway? If this is the case, why even go through this experiment of having Choo play Center? Certainly they would have to be interested in retaining his services beyond this season, considering how much they gave up to get him. If I wanted Choo beyond 2013, I never would have considered playing him in Center with a very capable Heisey available to play Center and a very capable Hamilton on his way.

    If Choo doesn't improve Defensively significantly by the end of June, I would put him in Left to stay and then roll the dice with Heisey and Paul in Center.
    Umm, the idea was for Ludwick to play left with Choo in Center. Choo is staying there so he's more familiar when Ludwick returns. I wouldn't count on either Heisey or Hamilton playing regularly anywhere in 2013. Ludwick returns or true corner guys like Lutz or Paul will get a lot of playing time (and they can't play CF though I'd be more inclined to try Lutz than Paul). If all that fails, we'll probably see a corner guy acquired when the trade market heats up a bit.

    Whichever path is chosen, it makes no sense to move Choo to a corner now only to have to move him back when LF get's settled by a bat that just can't play CF whether that bat is Ludwick, Lutz, Paul or some one from another team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    1,735

    Re: Report card.....Reality check

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Since we're talking reality check, here, how many months does Choo get before they move him to Left Field permanently?

    He's next to dead last in the Majors among Centerfielders in UZR/150 at -30.2 (Matt Kemp is worse).

    Xavier Paul and Chris Heisey are 3rd and 5th respectively among National League Left-fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Left.

    Jay Bruce is 12th in the National League among Right Fielders who have played at least 100 innings in Right. Bruce's UZR/150 is -2.6.

    They can all be looked up here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=24,d

    Would Choo be offended being put in Left? Would he be thankful to be back in familiar ground?

    Heisey can play Center, and I've always felt that he can play it as good as Stubbs, if not better. Stubbs isn't exactly tearing it up in Cleveland defensively this year.

    When Hamilton is ready, shouldn't he play Center anyway? If this is the case, why even go through this experiment of having Choo play Center? Certainly they would have to be interested in retaining his services beyond this season, considering how much they gave up to get him. If I wanted Choo beyond 2013, I never would have considered playing him in Center with a very capable Heisey available to play Center and a very capable Hamilton on his way.

    If Choo doesn't improve Defensively significantly by the end of June, I would put him in Left to stay and then roll the dice with Heisey and Paul in Center.
    I'm hoping Heisey is out of the picture in the long term.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25