If he finishes the incredible season he's having, Boras is going to ask for $20M per for, and I"m guessing here, at least 6 years.
Earlier in the year, I thought something like a 4 year, $60MM deal would get it done, but I think if he sustains anything close to this level of excellence, Choo will approach a $100MM deal and will price himself out of a possible return to Cincy.
It isn't just about Choo, it is about the entire team. Bailey becomes a free agent after the 2014 season and then Latos becomes one after the 2015 season, and guess what 2016 is when Joey Votto starts becoming real expensive at 20 mil per year with Brandon Phillips getting 13 million in 2016 as well.
Consider that Cueto will need to be re-signed in 2016 as well, and right now he has a ridiculously team friendly contract, and there is simply no way you can keep the core of the team together if you sign Choo long term.
The reality is while it sounds good to say "Sign Choo", practically speaking it doesn't make a ton of sense. You can only be paying mid 30's guys so much money and Votto/Phillips are eating that up right now, paying Choo another 17 mil at 35 with the 32 already committed to those two, PLUS the huge raises due to the top of your rotation at the same time is how you hamstring a payroll/roster.
This is why you have a farm system. You can't re-sign everyone long term. As it is they can likely only sign 2 of the Bailey/Cueto/Latos trio long term, and not sure if you have looked, Mike Leake is becoming a solid No. 3 starter, and look how much those guys make in free agency as well.
Sometimes you have to let guys go, take the draft pick, and say "next man up". With Choo that means Billy Hamilton, when Ludwick comes up maybe that means Jesse Winker or Donald Lutz or whoever it might be. That is just how baseball works, can't play fantasy ball and just re-sign every guy looking short term without considering the long term.
Almost a zero chance Choo resigns with the Reds, I will enjoy him while he is here but know he is gone
When I see the 2015 Reds, I see a 100 loss team.
Would love to do it, but it's unlikely that the Reds could compete financially on this one. Perhaps if they don't try to sign Arroyo back they could have a decent shot, but with the kind of season Choo is having and with Boras as his agent, he can ask for the moon and most likely will get it.
I wouldn't mind one bit to see him go. April for him was a special case of overachieving. No way he'll have another month like that often. He's not hitting well now, and that, to me, seems like a norm for him. He's getting on base because he gets hit by pitch often - but wouldn't that make you worry, after seeing BP getting hit by pitch into DL?? Too much of a risk right there! I'd take someone like Aoki of Brewers any day of the week over Choo, hands down. Much cheaper and more consistent.
choo is really tanking right now offensively
Hitler finds out the Royals signed Jonathan Broxton: http://www.yourepeat.com/watch/?v=hB...=youtube_gdata
He's getting on base because he gets hit by pitch often? No.
He also walks a lot. He and Votto are only players in MLB who have 40+ walks.
Prince Fielder and Justin Upton rank third with 35 walks.
And Aoki over Choo? Are you serious?
Aoki: .298 .365 .391 .757 9 doubles 4 homers 18 walks
Choo: .272 .431 .484 .915 13 doubles 1 triples 10 homers 42 walks
I think given the right conditions, Reds would be crazy not to sign Choo. However, given his season thus far, I doubt he gives any discount, and the Reds have many important players reaching the end of their contracts very soon... Locking in Choo might tie their hands.
One good thing for the Reds, is that both Choo and Ellsbury will be free agents. I would assume that there would be a limited market for center field free agents especially when Bourne was on the market this year. Also, some of these stats people would say that you should notto give big money to a CF who is likely to hit under 25 hr a season.
It still will be a lot of money. The worst thing is that Boras tends to hold out for an offer until the last second. I'm not sure the Reds would want to just roll the dice past the winter meetings on a center fielder.