On May 16th 2002 the Reds were 25-15 and 5 games up on 2nd place. That 2002 team slowly lost that lead but spent 51 days in first place until crawling home with under .500 months in July/August/September and finished 19 games out of first in 3rd place.
On May 16th 2013 the Reds are 24-16 and 2.5 back of first place.
If we play .500 ball the rest of the way we'll hit 85 wins. At current .600 pace we'll win 97. Somewhere in between and we'll hit 91 wins. WAS/ATL/STL/CIN/SF are you current playoff odds on favorites (same as 2012); ARZ has a good shot. Outside shots include LA/PIT and COL.