Turn Off Ads?
Page 11 of 13 FirstFirst ... 78910111213 LastLast
Results 151 to 165 of 189

Thread: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

  1. #151
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Ballparks effect stats help us determine who the more talented player is. It does nothing to tell us who the more productive player is.

    Value to a team is about helping your team win ballgames. Making outs or getting hits in a tough hitters park is the same at helping your team win as making outs or getting hits in a hitter friendly park.

    Value is about production, and there always is a bit of luck involved in all production of runs. There's no need to account for luck when it comes to evaluating a players production or value to his team.
    They absolutely tell us who the more productive player is. A run created in Colorado is not equal to a run created in Seattle.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #152
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,918

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Ballparks effect stats help us determine who the more talented player is. It does nothing to tell us who the more productive player is.

    Value to a team is about helping your team win ballgames. Making outs or getting hits in a tough hitters park is the same at helping your team win as making outs or getting hits in a hitter friendly park.

    Value is about production, and there always is a bit of luck involved in all production of runs. There's no need to account for luck when it comes to evaluating a players production or value to his team.
    No, it isn't.

    Hypothetically speaking here: If you play in "lower scoring parks" because of how they play, an individual player can be worth less unadjusted "runs" and still be worth more because the threshold for a "win" is less.

    As for luck, I agree here in a sense. If a guy posts a .425 BABIP for the full season, I am not going to count that against him for an MVP award. He did it, it happened. That production did happen. He was insanely lucky and isn't going to do it again, but it did happen and you can't take it away from him.

    If you had another explanation for your luck argument, then you are going to have to explain it more so we can talk about that specifically.

  4. #153
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,462

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Sure they are actual runs, but weigh against the other items being brought to the table then. If theory is too specious then look at PAs/Reached base/ Outs

    Code:
    SEASON
    2B
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA <= .330
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      PA       RB      OUTS      OBA     RC/G    
    1    Jeff Kent                1997      121      651      206      462     .316     -.10   
    2    Jorge Cantu              2005      117      630      196      458     .311     0.00   
    3    Alfonso Soriano          2005      104      682      211      479     .309     1.03   
    4    Fred Pfeffer             1884      101      492      160      332     .325     3.12   
    5    Brandon Phillips         2009       98      644      211      463     .329     -.24   
    6    Jose Lopez               2009       96      653      197      484     .303     -.83   
    T7   Bret Boone               1998       95      648      207      468     .324     -.53   
    T7   Fred Pfeffer             1886       95      510      161      349     .316     0.29   
    T7   Bobby Doerr              1947       95      624      204      448     .329     -.21   
    T10  Tony Cuccinello          1934       94      587      188      407     .325     -.38   
    T10  Bobby Lowe               1898       94      611      184      427     .311    -1.25
    Take Phillips 98 rbis


    1 RBI every 6.6 PAs
    1 RBI every 4.7 outs
    1 RBI every 2.2 RB

    Now look at guys with OB% greater than .330

    Code:
    SEASON
    2B
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA >= .330
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      PA       RB      OUTS      OBA     RC/G    
    1    Rogers Hornsby           1922      152      704      316      400     .459     7.84   
    2    Rogers Hornsby           1929      149      712      317      395     .459     6.26   
    3    Rogers Hornsby           1925      143      605      288      320     .489     9.82   
    4    Bret Boone               2001      141      690      255      451     .372     2.81   
    5    Jeff Kent                1998      128      594      213      401     .359     1.78   
    T6   Nap Lajoie               1898      127      641      225      416     .354     1.98   
    T6   Charlie Gehringer        1934      127      708      316      400     .450     3.93   
    8    Rogers Hornsby           1921      126      674      302      385     .458     6.60   
    T9   Nap Lajoie               1901      125      582      269      313     .463    10.16   
    T9   Rogers Hornsby           1927      125      684      295      389     .448     5.08   
    T9   Jeff Kent                2000      125      695      295      426     .424     3.72
    Hornsby

    1 RBI every 4.6 PAs
    1 RBI every 2.6 outs
    1 RBI every 2.0 RB
    Outstanding!

    That tells me RBI's are one stat that needs to be considered with all others, not a stat that shouldn't be trusted.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #154
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,462

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, it isn't.

    Hypothetically speaking here: If you play in "lower scoring parks" because of how they play, an individual player can be worth less unadjusted "runs" and still be worth more because the threshold for a "win" is less.

    As for luck, I agree here in a sense. If a guy posts a .425 BABIP for the full season, I am not going to count that against him for an MVP award. He did it, it happened. That production did happen. He was insanely lucky and isn't going to do it again, but it did happen and you can't take it away from him.

    If you had another explanation for your luck argument, then you are going to have to explain it more so we can talk about that specifically.
    That's an excellent point about lower run environments.

    But I also think that good hitters adjust to their surroundings. My main point with park adjusted stats is that we really don't know what stats Trout would put up if he were in Cabrera's shoes and what stats Cabrera would put up if he were in Trout's.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. Likes:

    _Sir_Charles_ (05-17-2013)

  7. #155
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,671

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    They absolutely tell us who the more productive player is. A run created in Colorado is not equal to a run created in Seattle.
    I didn't really want to get sucked into this, but I disagree with this. A run scored is a run scored...regardless of where it happened. Both teams are playing by the same rules in the same ballpark. A run is a run. One may happen with less frequency in one park compared to another...but it doesn't make it more or less valuable because the opposition is also playing in that same ballpark under the same circumstances.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

  8. #156
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I didn't really want to get sucked into this, but I disagree with this. A run scored is a run scored...regardless of where it happened. Both teams are playing by the same rules in the same ballpark. A run is a run. One may happen with less frequency in one park compared to another...but it doesn't make it more or less valuable because the opposition is also playing in that same ballpark under the same circumstances.
    Except we know that's not true, and we apply that in every day logic that we use all over this board. We rarely accept anyone's numbers without factoring in parks.

    "Expect Volquez's ERA to go down in Petco"

    "Expect Alonso's OPS to go down in Petco"

    "Ludwick could really get a boost from GABP"

    "Fowler hasn't produced much outside of Coors Field"

    It's because it's way easier to score runs in certain parks. That's just a cold hard fact. Someone who produces 100 runs in Coors Field is not equivalent to someone producing 100 runs in Seattle as it's way, way easier to do that in Colorado.

    Yes, in a one game sample, the opposition is playing by the same rules in the same park. But how is it fair to compare the production of a Seattle player who plays 81 games at Safeco vs. a Reds player who plays 81 games at GABP?

  9. #157
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,918

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's an excellent point about lower run environments.

    But I also think that good hitters adjust to their surroundings. My main point with park adjusted stats is that we really don't know what stats Trout would put up if he were in Cabrera's shoes and what stats Cabrera would put up if he were in Trout's.
    You can only adjust so much. A guy can't choose to hit the ball 5 extra feet to turn a double into a home run. But those 5 feet make a difference from ballpark to ballpark. Think about the game in Miami the other night. The triple that tied the game would have ended the game in most parks. But not in that one.

    Miguel Cabrera, for as great of a hitter as he is, and I think he is the best pure hitter of the baseball in the game, isn't so good that he could just add some distance to his batted balls if he went out west and played in their bigger parks (Seattle/Oakland/Anaheim).

  10. #158
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,671

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    We don't disagree Homer. I was only disagreeing with that final sentence that a run in one park is not equal to a run in another. When you're looking at things from an individual perspective, you're right. When looking at it from a team perspective, it's not right. I tend to focus on the team.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

  11. #159
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,918

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I didn't really want to get sucked into this, but I disagree with this. A run scored is a run scored...regardless of where it happened. Both teams are playing by the same rules in the same ballpark. A run is a run. One may happen with less frequency in one park compared to another...but it doesn't make it more or less valuable because the opposition is also playing in that same ballpark under the same circumstances.
    A run is a run. But every run isn't valued the same.

    If you are playing in a park where the average run total in a game in 8. One run represents 12.5% of that. What if you are playing in a park that averages 11 runs per game? Now one run represents just 9.1% of that. The difference there is 3.4%. 3.4% of 12.5 is 27%. That is a real big deal.

  12. #160
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,671

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    A run is a run. But every run isn't valued the same.

    If you are playing in a park where the average run total in a game in 8. One run represents 12.5% of that. What if you are playing in a park that averages 11 runs per game? Now one run represents just 9.1% of that. The difference there is 3.4%. 3.4% of 12.5 is 27%. That is a real big deal.
    It's a big deal when you're talking about comparing individual players' stats. Not from the team perspective and from the won games perspective.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

  13. #161
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    South of Cincinnati
    Posts
    2,250

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by LaFlamaBlanca View Post
    So you'd say it's difficult to gauge who was a better defender or base runner between Trout and Cabrera? Or they have little value in regards to a baseball player's worth?

    Either way, I disagree.
    No, never suggested that.

    I said you can't quantify those categories into what they actually led to in production. They aren't really measurable in any tangible way. You can look at it and say "I trust my eyes" when it comes to that stuff (kind of like Larkin's MVP season) but you can't just throw them out there and say a guy with lesser overall numbers is better than the other guy because he runs and fields well.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  14. #162
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,918

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    It's a big deal when you're talking about comparing individual players' stats. Not from the team perspective and from the won games perspective.
    Sure it is because even on the team level, you need to score fewer runs to win the same number of games than if you were playing in a more friendly environment.

    Right now, in the current overall run scoring environment, we view +10 runs in your run differential as a "win" you should have. But that number doesn't work universally because runs are at a premium in places like Petco or Seattle and not nearly as much in places like Texas, Cincinnati or Colorado.

    In Petco or Seattle, getting to 4 runs is more likely to give you a win than getting to 4 runs in Texas.

  15. #163
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,671

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    I'm just going to gracefully back out of this thread. I'm not explaining myself well and it's just a matter of semantics anyway. These kinds of debates only tend to get frustrating anyway from my perspective.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

  16. Likes:

    New York Red (05-17-2013)

  17. #164
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    1,735

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm just going to gracefully back out of this thread. I'm not explaining myself well and it's just a matter of semantics anyway. These kinds of debates only tend to get frustrating anyway from my perspective.
    I've wanted to back out about a dozen times now.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  18. #165
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    906

    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Remember, it's most valuable player, not the best player. Phillips absolutely belongs in the conversation at this point. And I'd include Harper before I included Braun.
    the best player is the most valuable player.

  19. Likes:

    dougdirt (05-17-2013), RedEye (05-17-2013), R_Webb18 (05-17-2013)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25