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Thread: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

  1. #136
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    Wow, I guess you put me in my place.

    Some of you are way too full of yourselves. I'm pretty sure I've mentioned Brandon's defense numerous times in this thread, so, no, RBI isn't his only value to the 2013 Reds.

    Sabremetrically inclined? LOL, now that's funny.
    My bad. RBI and defense. If we're talking MVP, everything the player does matter. Simply asserting that a player has excelled in a particular area is, at best, an incomplete argument.

    Leads the league in RBI + plays really good defense at 2B = MVP is still a weak argument in my book. Driving in runs and playing defense are definitely big parts of how a player produces value. But they're only part of the picture. And I'm not suggesting that you don't know that. I am suggesting that you don't seem to be accounting for those other things.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-17-2013 at 02:13 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #137
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    And there is exactly what I am talking about. A backhanded insult that us traditionalists are not supposed to notice. I agree that you believe that deeper metrics give you a more accurate view of a player's performance but it doesn't mean those of us who enjoy stats like wins and RBI's should be insulted for it. I'm not a complete traditionalist, somewhere in the middle, but I do look at traditional stats and so do the players and managers and the GM's.

    Bum
    I think you've essentially identified a huge issue:

    You're mentioned that you "enjoy" certain stats. I would argue that while stats themselves can and do provide enjoyment, their primary purpose is to answer help answer given analytical questions. I see see relatively little value in spending time on metrics that do a poor(er) job of doing that when we have more precise/accurate metrics at our fingertips.

    This isn't about insulting anybody. But if we're debating something that has an objectively correct answer, why not try to get to the most accurate answer we can?

    What is frustrating to me is when people want to seemingly have their cake and eat it too -- if MVP, or a portion of MVP, is about runs produced and prevented, RBI add very little to that conversation in the presence of some of the new metrics which already account for the rate at which the player has advanced his teammates around the bases while also account for the other things he does that are also valuable (or not).

    And that gets back to my comment regarding "sabermetrically inclined" vs. traditionalist. For us "sabermetrically inclined" getting as close as possible to some objective truth is where the enjoyment comes from. For traditionalist, there's an element of that, but there is a significant amount of enjoyment that comes from answering those questions more squarely in the history and fabric of the game.

    When people like me take RBI off the table, it offends a core sense of what the game is all about for some people. For others, it's simply clearing out the old and inefficient to make way for new and improved.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  5. #138
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    You have a better shot at leading league in RBI's batting 3rd vs 1st.

  6. #139
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Why I don't trust RBIs

    Code:
    SEASON
    OBA <= .320
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      OBA     RC/G    
    T1   Garret Anderson          2001      123     .314     0.14   
    T1   Tony Armas               1984      123     .300     0.75   
    3    Matt Williams            1990      122     .319     0.58   
    T4   Joe Carter               1993      121     .312     0.46   
    T4   Jeff Kent                1997      121     .316     -.10   
    T6   Del Ennis                1954      119     .318     -.71   
    T6   Joe Carter               1992      119     .309     0.76   
    T6   Sammy Sosa               1997      119     .300     -.66   
    9    Dick Stuart              1963      118     .312     0.71   
    T10  Jose Canseco             1986      117     .318     0.22   
    T10  Jorge Cantu              2005      117     .311     0.00   
    T10  Garret Anderson          2000      117     .307     -.47

  7. #140
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    2b version with a .330 OB% limit

    Code:
    SEASON
    2B
    OBA <= .330
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      OBA     RC/G    
    1    Jeff Kent                1997      121     .316     -.10   
    2    Jorge Cantu              2005      117     .311     0.00   
    3    Alfonso Soriano          2005      104     .309     1.03   
    4    Fred Pfeffer             1884      101     .325     3.12   
    5    Brandon Phillips         2009       98     .329     -.24   
    6    Jose Lopez               2009       96     .303     -.83   
    T7   Bret Boone               1998       95     .324     -.53   
    T7   Fred Pfeffer             1886       95     .316     0.29   
    T7   Bobby Doerr              1947       95     .329     -.21   
    T10  Tony Cuccinello          1934       94     .325     -.38   
    T10  Bobby Lowe               1898       94     .311    -1.25

  8. #141
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Below are the reasons I don't trust RBI.





    1) I'm old school





















    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  9. #142
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    Below are the reasons I don't trust RBI.


    1) I'm old school


    Counting stats are generally created by increased opportunity, especially RBIs, which are caused by other players getting on and the player hitting coming up over and over again in that situation.

    Nothing confusing about that

  10. #143
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Why I don't trust RBIs

    Code:
    SEASON
    OBA <= .320
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      OBA     RC/G    
    T1   Garret Anderson          2001      123     .314     0.14   
    T1   Tony Armas               1984      123     .300     0.75   
    3    Matt Williams            1990      122     .319     0.58   
    T4   Joe Carter               1993      121     .312     0.46   
    T4   Jeff Kent                1997      121     .316     -.10   
    T6   Del Ennis                1954      119     .318     -.71   
    T6   Joe Carter               1992      119     .309     0.76   
    T6   Sammy Sosa               1997      119     .300     -.66   
    9    Dick Stuart              1963      118     .312     0.71   
    T10  Jose Canseco             1986      117     .318     0.22   
    T10  Jorge Cantu              2005      117     .311     0.00   
    T10  Garret Anderson          2000      117     .307     -.47
    Reason why I trust RBI's.

    They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.

    The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.

    RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #144
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by reds700 View Post
    The ballpark thing is overdone imo. Yeah, it is easier to hit home runs in certain parks, but it is also harder to get base hits in those parks b/c the outfield is smaller. It all evens out.
    No, it doesn't all even out, or even close to it. Heck, just think about something as trivial as foul territory. How many extra chances on a season does a guy get because he plays in GABP with little foul territory versus playing in Oakland with their huge amounts of foul territory? Balls that fall in the first 5-7 rows here are outs in Oakland.

    Nevermind what WOY said about the different values of the hits.

  12. #145
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Counting stats are generally created by increased opportunity, especially RBIs, which are caused by other players getting on and the player hitting coming up over and over again in that situation.

    Nothing confusing about that
    You're one of my favorite posters, yet I want to boot you right now.

    Brandon is hitting something like a million with RISP, but lets give the love to Choo and Votto (who I agree deserve their portion of the credit). Why can't we admit we have three players in the MVP race?
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  13. #146
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Reason why I trust RBI's.

    They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.

    The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.

    RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
    But the player who is credited with the "runs" in the RBI isn't fully responsible for them. The problem with RBI is that it gives full credit for that run to one guy, when unless it came from a solo home run, he was not fully responsible for. It also counts that solo HR the same as when a guy grounds out weakly to the second baseman with the bases loaded. Those two events weren't close to the same, but they are credited the same in the RBI stat.

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  15. #147
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But the player who is credited with the "runs" in the RBI isn't fully responsible for them. The problem with RBI is that it gives full credit for that run to one guy, when unless it came from a solo home run, he was not fully responsible for. It also counts that solo HR the same as when a guy grounds out weakly to the second baseman with the bases loaded. Those two events weren't close to the same, but they are credited the same in the RBI stat.
    Boom. Can't emphasize this post enough.

  16. #148
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Reason why I trust RBI's.

    They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.

    The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.

    RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
    Sure they are actual runs, but weigh against the other items being brought to the table then. If theory is too specious then look at PAs/Reached base/ Outs

    Code:
    SEASON
    2B
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA <= .330
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      PA       RB      OUTS      OBA     RC/G    
    1    Jeff Kent                1997      121      651      206      462     .316     -.10   
    2    Jorge Cantu              2005      117      630      196      458     .311     0.00   
    3    Alfonso Soriano          2005      104      682      211      479     .309     1.03   
    4    Fred Pfeffer             1884      101      492      160      332     .325     3.12   
    5    Brandon Phillips         2009       98      644      211      463     .329     -.24   
    6    Jose Lopez               2009       96      653      197      484     .303     -.83   
    T7   Bret Boone               1998       95      648      207      468     .324     -.53   
    T7   Fred Pfeffer             1886       95      510      161      349     .316     0.29   
    T7   Bobby Doerr              1947       95      624      204      448     .329     -.21   
    T10  Tony Cuccinello          1934       94      587      188      407     .325     -.38   
    T10  Bobby Lowe               1898       94      611      184      427     .311    -1.25
    Take Phillips 98 rbis


    1 RBI every 6.6 PAs
    1 RBI every 4.7 outs
    1 RBI every 2.2 RB

    Now look at guys with OB% greater than .330

    Code:
    SEASON
    2B
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA >= .330
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RBI                           YEAR     RBI      PA       RB      OUTS      OBA     RC/G    
    1    Rogers Hornsby           1922      152      704      316      400     .459     7.84   
    2    Rogers Hornsby           1929      149      712      317      395     .459     6.26   
    3    Rogers Hornsby           1925      143      605      288      320     .489     9.82   
    4    Bret Boone               2001      141      690      255      451     .372     2.81   
    5    Jeff Kent                1998      128      594      213      401     .359     1.78   
    T6   Nap Lajoie               1898      127      641      225      416     .354     1.98   
    T6   Charlie Gehringer        1934      127      708      316      400     .450     3.93   
    8    Rogers Hornsby           1921      126      674      302      385     .458     6.60   
    T9   Nap Lajoie               1901      125      582      269      313     .463    10.16   
    T9   Rogers Hornsby           1927      125      684      295      389     .448     5.08   
    T9   Jeff Kent                2000      125      695      295      426     .424     3.72
    Hornsby

    1 RBI every 4.6 PAs
    1 RBI every 2.6 outs
    1 RBI every 2.0 RB

  17. #149
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, it doesn't all even out, or even close to it. Heck, just think about something as trivial as foul territory. How many extra chances on a season does a guy get because he plays in GABP with little foul territory versus playing in Oakland with their huge amounts of foul territory? Balls that fall in the first 5-7 rows here are outs in Oakland.

    Nevermind what WOY said about the different values of the hits.
    Ballparks effect stats help us determine who the more talented player is. It does nothing to tell us who the more productive player is.

    Value to a team is about helping your team win ballgames. Making outs or getting hits in a tough hitters park is the same at helping your team win as making outs or getting hits in a hitter friendly park.

    Value is about production, and there always is a bit of luck involved in all production of runs. There's no need to account for luck when it comes to evaluating a players production or value to his team.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  18. #150
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

    Let me further note that I like RBI, because as 757690 noted, they do represent actual runs scored by the team and you can't win without scoring. RBI are a good thing to have. But I do think they are a can be indicator of a players value.


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