1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs

[757690]

Ok. In what scenario would a GM use HR, RBI, Avg over OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/WAR?

What do HR/RBI/Avg tell us about that player that the ratio stats do not?

Most GM's actually use stats far more complex and detailed than even WAR/wOBA/OPS. They have terabytes of info on each player, breaking down every AB, literally.

I agree most GM's don't use back of the baseball card stats to make decisions.

However, this thread is not asking us to be a GM and decide whom to trade for, or whom to sign. It's asking us who has been more valuable to their team. And for that, a strong argument can be made for back of the baseball card stats.

It really comes down to a difference in philosophy on how to understand the game. If you believe that the game is played one game at a time, and the goal is to score one more run then your opponent in each game, then you value things like RBI's, ERA, batting average, bunts, baserunnimg, fundamentals, etc. these things help you win actual games, one game at a time.

But if believe that the game is about scoring more runs than you give up over a full season, if you believe that the goal of a team is to have the best run difference in the league, than you value advanced stats like wOBA, UZR, XFIP, etc. These evaluate how well a player generates or,prevents runs in general, theoretically, over the course of a full season.

I'm mostly in the former camp, but I understand and respect those in the latter camp. I don't think it has to be an either-or proposition either.

[Bumstead]

WOY, I'm not a big fan of Batting Average unless I'm in a 4X4 fantasy league...which I am in 0 of the last 3 years. 3 years straight without a meaningful fantasy league. Ahhhh...I can just relax and enjoy the Reds!

[Bumstead]

Ok. In what scenario would a GM use HR, RBI, Avg over OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/WAR?

What do HR/RBI/Avg tell us about that player that the ratio stats do not?

Just so that it doesn't appear that I am ignoring you, I did answer your question within the response that you quoted...

[westofyou]

WOY, I'm not a big fan of Batting Average unless I'm in a 4X4 fantasy league...which I am in 0 of the last 3 years. 3 years straight without a meaningful fantasy league. Ahhhh...I can just relax and enjoy the Reds!

Yeah I quit fantasy myself focus on the season at hand and play Strat for my fantasy fix

FWIW here is a 96 year old article on different ways to look at the games stats... NINTY SIX years ago!!

Folks this thinking beyond what you have been taught is as old as the game

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1728446

[Bumstead]

Yeah I quit fantasy myself focus on the season at hand and play Strat for my fantasy fix

FWIW here is a 96 year old article on different ways to look at the games stats... NINTY SIX years ago!!

Folks this thinking beyond what you have been taught is as old as the game

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1728446

Do they still make Strat?

[Bumstead]

Yeah I quit fantasy myself focus on the season at hand and play Strat for my fantasy fix

FWIW here is a 96 year old article on different ways to look at the games stats... NINTY SIX years ago!!

Folks this thinking beyond what you have been taught is as old as the game

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1728446

Thanks for the link! I don't know how you find all this fascinating baseball info!

Bum

[Homer Bailey]

Just so that it doesn't appear that I am ignoring you, I did answer your question within the response that you quoted...

True, my bad. I glanced over that.

[westofyou]

Do they still make Strat?

Yep, online version is what I play with M2 and Chili

www.strat-o-matic.com/

[Bumstead]

Yep, online version is what I play with M2 and Chili

www.strat-o-matic.com/

Cool, I will have to check it out. I have OOTP13 which I love, but I will check this out as well.

Thanks.

[RichRed]

Yeah I quit fantasy myself focus on the season at hand and play Strat for my fantasy fix

FWIW here is a 96 year old article on different ways to look at the games stats... NINTY SIX years ago!!

Folks this thinking beyond what you have been taught is as old as the game

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1728446

Whatever happened to Ltlabner anyway?

[Falcon7]

Joey is not exactly great in the clutch, the brighter the lights the worse he plays.
Done next to nothing in All-Star, games play-off games and other high profile games.
Now I'm sure you will talk about his .380 something average and .500 OBP against SF last year. He's not a lead-off HITTER! He needs to drive in more runs PERIOD!

Let's say he averaged, before his HUGE contract: .330 BA, .420 OBP 15 Hr's and 65 rbi's. Do you think anyway in the world he would have a received a 12 year contract for $252 MILLION?

[RedEye]

And there is exactly what I am talking about. A backhanded insult that us traditionalists are not supposed to notice. I agree that you believe that deeper metrics give you a more accurate view of a player's performance but it doesn't mean those of us who enjoy stats like wins and RBI's should be insulted for it. I'm not a complete traditionalist, somewhere in the middle, but I do look at traditional stats and so do the players and managers and the GM's.

Bum

Backhanded insult? It was only intended as a turn of phrase. I apologize.

I love baseball cards; they are what got me started following statistics. I also love RBI's and AVG and HR; they are what got me thinking about the worth of individual players. I still look at these stats, too. No one was more frustrated when Jay Bruce ended with 99 RBI last year than me. It's just not the nice round number that 100 is -- and for whatever reason, that matters.

I think you are wrong about the players and managers and GM's though. They do understand more advanced stats. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce (among many others) have been on-record about their understanding of more advanced ways to think about hitting. Almost all ML teams now have at least one stat-cruncher who helps to put things in perspective. I could go on.

There are also many ways in which old and new converge. HR are still important no matter what way you look at things. I would say the more we study stuff, the more we thoroughly realize that the long ball is pretty much the ultimate batting skill in terms of individual performance -- or at least one of them.

I think in ten years or so, many of the skirmishes that take place on boards like RedsZone will be moot, because most everyone will have a basic understanding of different metrics. Just in the past decade, for instance, OBP has risen unbelievably in prominence in the mainstream coverage of baseball, so much so that I would say even layperson fans understand its importance.

Anyway, no offense intended. You really are the one who is maintaining this divide in my opinion. All it takes is some curiosity and openness to new ideas. I think you'll find that most "stat heads" (of which, incidentally, I don't consider myself one) are somewhere deep down filled with love of HR/RBI/AVG. They just love them so much, they want more and better stats.

[RedEye]

But forget the numbers for one second and consider the actual games. He's made more of an impact than any other position player on this team this season, except for maybe Choo.

I don't understand this distinction. Aren't the numbers what we use to understand better what has happened in actual games? When you say he has made "more of an impact", what basis do you have for that? I love BP, but there just isn't a solid case that he has had more of an impact than Votto or Choo.

[westofyou]

Joey is not exactly great in the clutch, the brighter the lights the worse he plays.
Done next to nothing in All-Star, games play-off games and other high profile games.
Now I'm sure you will talk about his .380 something average and .500 OBP against SF last year. He's not a lead-off HITTER! He needs to drive in more runs PERIOD!

Let's say he averaged, before his HUGE contract: .330 BA, .420 OBP 15 Hr's and 65 rbi's. Do you think anyway in the world he would have a received a 12 year contract for $252 MILLION?

Lord I wish all the Reds were as crappy in the bright lights as Votto

        Split  G GS   PA AB  R   H  2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS   TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
    2 outs RISP   275  316   237  71  17  1  13 108  2  1  77  56 .300 .475 .544 1.019  129   0   2  0  0  41   3  .345   113
    Late  Close   389  545   444 143  35  2  21  79  2  1  93 129 .322 .444 .552  .996  245   8   6  0  2  29   6  .412   107
       Tie Game   618 1067   912 287  60  2  47 156 13  6 140 225 .315 .408 .539  .947  492  19   8  0  7  21   9  .371    96
     Within 1 R   712 1793  1503 482 110  7  75 258 23 14 271 346 .321 .427 .553  .980  831  29  12  0  7  43  14  .374   103
     Within 2 R   738 2279  1907 614 143  7  98 337 28 16 343 432 .322 .428 .558  .986 1065  44  18  0 11  52  20  .372   104
     Within 3 R   753 2628  2191 702 164  9 111 378 34 18 401 490 .320 .428 .555  .983 1217  47  21  0 15  60  24  .368   104
     Within 4 R   758 2861  2398 760 181  9 121 416 39 19 424 529 .317 .422 .551  .974 1322  50  24  0 15  63  25  .362   101
     Margin 4 R   222  391   351 111  24  1  16  58  3  2  39  70 .316 .386 .527  .913  185   7   1  0  0   2   2  .358    88
          Ahead   426 1023   844 268  67  4  35 153 21  9 167 157 .318 .435 .531  .966  448  23  10  0  2  30   9  .356   101
         Behind   490 1162   993 316  78  4  55 165  8  6 156 217 .318 .412 .571  .983  567  15   7  0  6  14   9  .359   103

[Falcon7]

Done next to nothing in All-Star, games play-off games and other high profile games.

Do you have stats from these games handy ^^? They are woeful and you know it.