Reds stats through 40 games, 2013

[Kc61]

Reds went 8-2, now 24-16, .600 win percentage second best in NL to Cards who lead Central by 2.5 games. Reds 16-6 home, 8-10 road, with +40 run differential second best to Cards in NL. In 2012 after 40 games Reds were in second by .5 games with a 21-19 record and a run differential of zero. (In 2011 Reds run differential after forty games was +35.) Reds now 12-7 against NL East, 10-8 against Central, 2-1 Interleague. Hanigan returned, Miller went back to AAA.

Offense - Reds tied for NL lead in runs scored with 190, now with a team .729 OPS, fifth in NL and well above NL average of .707 OPS. (AL league average team OPS is much higher, .736.) Big jump from .705 Reds team OPS last report. In 2012, team OPS after forty games was .693, eleventh in NL. (2011 after forty games team OPS was .773.)

Reds team BA is now .251, seventh in NL and a tick above league average. Team OBP is .335, tops in NL. Team SLG is eighth in NL, .394. All these percentages increased from last time, but SLG jumped from .378 and is now just above .393 league average. (AL league average SLG is .414.) Compared to 2012, OBP is well up (was .303 after forty games in 2012) and SLG is now also up (was .387 last year at this stage).

Reds offense team K% is 19.8% - eighth in NL. Walk rate is 10.3% best in NL. These percentages are better than last year at this time, when the K rate was 21.6% and walk rate was 8%. Reds ISO power now is eighth in NL at .143 improved from last time (.134). Last year at this time was .151 fourth in league. Reds wOBA now fifth in NL at .318 and wRC+ is 97, seventh in NL.

Votto .327 BA, fifth in NL among qualified hitters. Choo at .322 is sixth in BA. Choo .465 OBP, leads league, Votto .457 second. Phillips 34 RBI leads NL. Choo leads NL in OPS at 1.054 and in runs scored, 33. Votto seventh with 27. Votto leads league in walks at 34. Choo with 27 is third. Justin Upton second. Choo seventh in SLG with .589. Choo tied for fourth in NL in extra base hits with 20. Cozart leads NL in sacrifice flies with 5, and Phillips with 4 tied for second. Choo leads league in HBP with 12, Marte getting up there with 8.

Looking at wRC+, an advanced runs created stat, park and league adjusted, with a 100 norm, Choo is at 190 which leads the NL (assuming 70 PAs or more). Votto at 159. Phillips and Paul at 113. Frazier 100. Bruce 93. Mes 75. Cozart 54. Heisey 25. (70 PA minimum).

Pitching - Reds team ERA is now 3.45, third in the NL. Last year at this time was .350. Last time, ten games ago, was 3.37. Starters at 3.38, third in NL. Bullpen improving rapidly now with ERA at 3.62 eighth in NL. Reds with 23 quality starts, tied for fifth-sixth in league. Reds have allowed 150 runs tied for fourth-fifth. Reds with 336 Ks, lead NL, Bucs trail them by six. Reds have allowed 104 walks, less than everybody in league except Cards and Nats.

Looking at the advanced SIERA stat, a combo pitching stat on Fangraphs, the Reds trail only the Cards in the NL with 3.51. Cards are at 3.43. Reds xFIP also second in the league trailing only the Cards. Reds team HR/9 rate allowed by pitchers is 1.08 fourth worst in NL. Reds LOB% is 77.2%, second best in the league. Notably in the 40 game report last year, Reds were also excellent in LOB% with 76.9%.

Pitching WAR shows Homer Bailey with team best 1.2. Latos 0.9. Arroyo and Chapman 0.6. Worst are Hoover at -0.4 and Ondrusek at -0.2. Chapman with 14.00 K/9 rate and Cingrani with 11.89. Arroyo with team best 1.37 walk/9 rate. Marshall 1.59. Simon 1.83. Hoover high walk rate on team with 4.08. Low homer rate is Marshall at zero, Lecure and Chapman at 0.5 per nine innings. Bailey also low at 0.70 homers per nine. Parra, Hoover, Ondrusek, Cingrani with highest homer rate per nine innings.

Four Reds hurlers with GB rates over 50% - Marshall (57.1%), Cueto (52.3%), Leake (51.9%), Bailey (50.7%). Chapman, Hoover, Parra, Cingrani are team low in GB%, with Chapman the lowest at 22.2%.

Fielding - Reds now fourth in NL UZR rating at 6.6 trailing Giants, DBacks, Braves. Frazier and Phillips are one-two on club at UZR. Entire starting infield with +UZR ratings. Last time, Reds had 14 errors. Now, ten games later, team has 17 errors tied for third fewest in NL.

Conclusion - all would be well in Redsland except for those guys from St. Louis.

[mdccclxix]

Thank you sir

[Kc61]

Thank you sir

Your most welcome. Very sorry I was editing as I went along, accidentally hit the "submit" button too soon.

Couple of points. Current LF trio has done a good job where Heisey had struggled before injury. Note Paul's high wRC+. Reds really have destroyed lesser teams. Only major problem right now is that the Cards are on fire and Reds can't pass them.

[RadfordVA]

Leake as the 5th starter has ERA+ of 109. Very nice. Going to be hard for this team to not win 90+ games with pitching like that.

[bigredmechanism]

Leake as the 5th starter has ERA+ of 109. Very nice. Going to be hard for this team to not win 90+ games with pitching like that.

I think we've got to consider that this is one of the best pitching staffs in Reds history, if not the best. Leake gets shelled on here at times, but he is far from garbage as a 5 starter. Even our mop-up bullpen arms are better than the best arms we had just a few short years ago.

There isn't a pitcher on this team that couldn't get a job on the big league club of any organization in the majors. That's kind of impressive.

[Kc61]

I think we've got to consider that this is one of the best pitching staffs in Reds history, if not the best. Leake gets shelled on here at times, but he is far from garbage as a 5 starter. Even our mop-up bullpen arms are better than the best arms we had just a few short years ago.

There isn't a pitcher on this team that couldn't get a job on the big league club of any organization in the majors. That's kind of impressive.

Just edited the stats post to add some ground ball rates by Reds pitchers. Marshall and Cueto lead the Reds, but Leake is third at 51.9%.

IMO, the keys to Leake are GB rate and K rate. He needs to keep the GB rate around 50% of batted balls. His current K rate is 6.33 which I think is probably adequate for Mike.

If he can keep those numbers reasonably constant, I think he's ok. Notably last year Leake had a much higher HR rate than so far in 2013, a lower K rate, and a lower GB rate. Good progress.

[Edd Roush]

Worst are Ondrusek at -0.4 and Ondrusek at -0.2.

Only Logan Ondrusek is bad enough to be a team's two worst pitchers, haha.

Thanks for the work, Kc!

[Kc61]

Only Logan Ondrusek is bad enough to be a team's two worst pitchers, haha.

Thanks for the work, Kc!

Would you believe me if I said it was a test, to see if folks were actually reading?

Nah, I messed up.

Hoover is -0.4.

Good catch!

[Marc D]

Conclusion - all would be well in Redsland except for those guys from St. Louis.

and those guys in LF.

Reds are 29th out of 30 MLB teams in LF wOBA. Only the Juan Pierre led gaggle from Miami is worse.

I don't think there is any way they stay near the top in runs scored with that kind of production from such a premium offensive position.

[Kc61]

and those guys in LF.

Reds are 29th out of 30 MLB teams in LF wOBA. Only the Juan Pierre led gaggle from Miami is worse.

I don't think there is any way they stay near the top in runs scored with that kind of production from such a premium offensive position.

Problem with this, though, is that Heisey slumped terribly over 79 PAs in LF during his stint there. Since he got injured, the LF numbers are much better. XPaul for example has a 113 wRC+ coming into tonight's game, a stat with a norm of 100.

LOL, Paul just got a hit v. Marlins as I wrote that.

Left field is not a static position for the Reds, with Ludwick out we'll see them mixing and matching in LF. I doubt the Reds will accept another offensive slump in that position to match Heisey's before his injury.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Looking at wRC+, an advanced runs created stat, park and league adjusted, with a 100 norm, Choo is at 190 which leads the NL.

Wow.

[BearcatShane]

Thats a whole lotta good stats.