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Thread: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

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    Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    FWIW: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...he-best-in-mlb

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    Latos has pitched well enough to get consideration for the NL All-Star team, and Bailey could also pitch his way into the conversation if he continues his current pace. With those two and Cueto, the Reds have three legitimate No. 1 pitchers.
    Three or four years ago, who would've thought Homer Bailey would ever be considered as a "legitimate No. 1 pitcher"?
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    Doug. A few others on here. But especially Doug.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    FWIW: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...he-best-in-mlb

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    Three or four years ago, who would've thought Homer Bailey would ever be considered as a "legitimate No. 1 pitcher"?
    I did, so did Dougdirt and I'm pretty sure Hokiered was on board. Others can chime in.

    I think Dusty Baker and Dick Pole believed it as well. IMO, they were trying to push Bailey forward to that position in late 2009 but pushed him too far by jumping his seasonal innings by around 60 IP. I really think the 2010 and 2011 missed time have something to do with that. It worked out though. Had Bailey been this caliber in 2011, there may never have been the deal for Latos.

    Getting Latos really brought all of this together. Cueto was good and Arroyo ate innings. Leake was a nice shot in the arm that stopped the never ending revolving door of Josh Foggs and Kirk Saarlooses (Sarli??). Now Bailey is moving into his envisioned spot near the top of the bunch. Homer needs a contract extension.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    I love the idea of a contract extension for Homer. The questions are (1) does Homer want one and (2) for much?
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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I did, so did Dougdirt and I'm pretty sure Hokiered was on board. Others can chime in.

    I think Dusty Baker and Dick Pole believed it as well. IMO, they were trying to push Bailey forward to that position in late 2009 but pushed him too far by jumping his seasonal innings by around 60 IP. I really think the 2010 and 2011 missed time have something to do with that. It worked out though. Had Bailey been this caliber in 2011, there may never have been the deal for Latos.

    Getting Latos really brought all of this together. Cueto was good and Arroyo ate innings. Leake was a nice shot in the arm that stopped the never ending revolving door of Josh Foggs and Kirk Saarlooses (Sarli??). Now Bailey is moving into his envisioned spot near the top of the bunch. Homer needs a contract extension.
    There was a point, I think in the 2011 season, maybe the year before, where Bailey grew up. He learned to contain himself, to control his emotions, and he's been a man on a mission ever since, IMO.

    And while the OP didn't mention them, Arroyo and Leake round out the rotation very nicely. I said this a while back, but I think Bronson's one of the smartest pitchers out there. I'd love to see that knowledge permeate te staff top to bottom.
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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    I love the idea of a contract extension for Homer. The questions are (1) does Homer want one and (2) for much?
    This is all just my opinion, but somehwere between what Edwin Jackson (4 years, $52 Million) got from the Cubs and Anibal Sanchez (5 years $80 Million) got from the Tigers. Splitting the difference and using Jackson's Ave Annual Value with Sanchez' length of contract would be 5 Years, $65 Million and seems fair at this point. Waiting until after the season may make it impossible. If Bailey keeps going and has a big year, it may take more than what Sanchez got to lock him up.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    There was a point, I think in the 2011 season, maybe the year before, where Bailey grew up. He learned to contain himself, to control his emotions, and he's been a man on a mission ever since, IMO.

    And while the OP didn't mention them, Arroyo and Leake round out the rotation very nicely. I said this a while back, but I think Bronson's one of the smartest pitchers out there. I'd love to see that knowledge permeate te staff top to bottom.
    I think he was on a mission all along, but arm problems, mostly lack of arm strenth, got in the way. I'm sure bulking-up helped a lot, but I really believe that his arm didn't bounce back from the pushing he got in 2009 and trying to pitch like that made it worse. Finally, after 2011, he strengthened the arm and started to get it together.

    He did grow up though. It's why I don't pay much attention to attitude complaints about a kid under 25. They usually all come in thinking their it and most grow out of it.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    This is all just my opinion, but somehwere between what Edwin Jackson (4 years, $52 Million) got from the Cubs and Anibal Sanchez (5 years $80 Million) got from the Tigers. Splitting the difference and using Jackson's Ave Annual Value with Sanchez' length of contract would be 5 Years, $65 Million and seems fair at this point. Waiting until after the season may make it impossible. If Bailey keeps going and has a big year, it may take more than what Sanchez got to lock him up.
    I agree that now would be the best time to try to lock up Bailey and Latos.

    HOWEVER, call me old fashioned, but I don't like going more than four years with a pitcher - there is just too much injury risk, and not enough precedent of those kinds of contracts actually working out.

    So I might offer something like a 3 year, $45M extension to Bailey and Latos both beyond their current contracts (beginning after next season). For Bailey that would buy out 3 years of FA, and for Latos that would buy out one season of arbitration (2015) + 2 years of FA.

    If you had to give Bailey cost certainty for next year, I'd offer him $10M. So in effect, Bailey would get paid $55M over the next four years, and Latos would get paid $52M over the next four years. While I think Latos is probably the better pitcher, Bailey gets slightly more because he would otherwise be eligible for FA one year earlier. A big reason why I think a deal like this may appeal to both pitchers is that it would still allow them to hit FA before they hit 30 (actually Bailey would be 31), much like Cueto's current extension. Therefore they wouldn't be giving up on a larger payday down the road.

    With both Latos and Bailey (along with Votto and Bruce) signed through the 2017 seasons, the Reds could start making decisions what they wanted to do with the rest of the core in the ensuing years. I also suspect deals like this might leave enough room for the Reds to re-sign Choo, if he were willing to sign something like a 4 year, $70M deal. If he wanted more than that, I'd let him walk (I'd really prefer 3 years with Choo, but given his performance so far, that may be unrealistic).

    Meanwhile, we'd still have Cueto and Leake through 2015, with Cingrani and Stephenson taking over the #3 and #4 roles in the rotation after that.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-26-2013 at 12:52 PM.
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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    One other thing to consider - do the Reds make Arroyo a qualifying offer after this season?

    Of course I assume a lot of that depends on whether they can extend Bailey/Latos or sign Choo (all of which would be a higher priority), but it may be worth considering if he continues to pitch this well. It would be interesting to see whether he'd accept that or seek a multiyear deal elsewhere.
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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    You want to get Latos and Bailey you'll have to offer 5 years minimum.

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    You don't know that PP.

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    One other thing to consider - do the Reds make Arroyo a qualifying offer after this season?
    Zero chance they take that risk IMO. Arroyo would just at the $14M payday I'm guessing.

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You want to get Latos and Bailey you'll have to offer 5 years minimum.
    Agreed. I'm even more conservative the Beni and really don't like anything beyond 3 years for a pitcher, but starters in demand get 5 years these days. Bailey will be 28 when he hits free agency, and ready for his age 29 season. A 3 or 4 year deal will take him past his prime and have him hitting the market again at age 32 or so. His free agent deal is going to be the big payday of his career. To get him to give that up, its going to need to be a good deal for him that pays for some of his past his prime seasons.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    I think we'll see Bronson take a 2 or 3 year deal elsewhere. A mutual parting of ways. Hopefully he leaves with a ring.

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    Re: Reds Have Best Rotation in Baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Zero chance they take that risk IMO. Arroyo would just at the $14M payday I'm guessing.
    I could see them doing it if they are miles apart with both Bailey and Latos. If it looks like both those guys are short-timers in Cincinnati, Walt might want to keep around a steady veteran. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that. I like Brandon and appreciate what he has brought to the team, but I hope he is pitching elsewhere in 2014. With Cingrani in the pipeline and the book still not entirely closed on Chapman to the rotation at some point in the future, there is no reason for the Reds to be spending eight-digits for a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.

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