The use or misuse of the pen

[Old school 1983]

To the bullpen question. The aggregate bullpen is a huge factor. You have to have a good group of guys. The closer is overvalued because of the way they are handled. If the bedt was used in highly leveraged spots instead of only with a lead of 3 or less and only in the 9th...then they would have more value. Most good relievers can match the league's save percentage average. Except in years like Gagne once had almost all closers save games at near the average. Chapman is not better than that percentage wise. The odds of a team scoring in any single inning is not high. Any good reliever should be able to get the last 3 outs. Bullpens themselves are important but individual relievers are not. Its a weird dichotomy.

I agree Baker is weakest as a manager in single games or series. But if players perform as expected that can limit the strategic role of the manager.

I disagree defense is not good enough to be a good playoff team. As good or better defenders are available for defensive switches at most positions and even Choo and Frazier are not defensive liabilities. Frazier needs to pick up his hitting but he is an average 3b compared to the league. I'd call 3b neither a strength particularly nor a liability. Choo is playing better in CF as the season goes on.

Winning the playoffs and series is NOT who is best but who gets hot at the right time. Let Walt work. Right now any trade for a solid RH bat is going to cost a lot more than deadline deal because almost every team still has a shot. The really bad teams have so many needs any good player they trade at this point will cost a King's ransom. Near the deadline they'll be more reasonable.

Good reasoning on all counts. I see chapman being value able because he helps to setup the BP as a group and sets up a nasty boys type situation with Marshall and broxton.

[Old school 1983]

My issue with Baker is he is managing like this was the 70/80's. He can't think out of the box at all and try different things. Marshall is the lefty specialist and that is all. Chapman only pitches the 9th inning and if it's a save situation. To me with all the tools he has down in the pen, there is zero excuse for the pen to ever blow a game. There is way to much talent there for that to happen. Sure pitchers have bad games, but we have options that shouldn't be tied into set rules.

With the talent in the pen and that it is full of former or potential closers I agree that we shouldn't be tied to a set of rules.

[Don Cameron]

Did you watch baseball in the 1970's and 1980's????

If so, Baker would be using Chapman like Gossage, Sutter, Lee Smith, Sparky Lyle.... look at those innings.

Don Cameron
Look to the stars

[Old school 1983]

Did you watch baseball in the 1970's and 1980's????

If so, Baker would be using Chapman like Gossage, Sutter, Lee Smith, Sparky Lyle.... look at those innings.

Don Cameron
Look to the stars

If we have two closers at the end of the pen in broxton and chapman, use the better of the two, chapman, in the higher leverage situation. Lou did that with the nasty boys in 1990

[dwyerbrg]

If we have two closers at the end of the pen in broxton and chapman, use the better of the two, chapman, in the higher leverage situation. Lou did that with the nasty boys in 1990

Yes, but the closer wasn't the money man then that it is now. Agents would be screaming...players are more numbers oriented, and Baker being a players' manager wants his guys to get their numbers, their milestones. That's where the league is screwed up.

As soon as Baker started using Chapman in the highest leveraged situation in the 7th-9th innings, there would be screaming about Chapman being demoted. The good free agent bullpen arms wouldn't want to come here because Dusty doesn't set roles for them. Think about it, Chapman pitches to the 3-4-5 batters in the 8th and Simon pitches to 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th...makes sense, but Chapman is going to be upset, his agent will be upset, Simon might put too much pressure on himself, articles will be written, questions will be asked. Dusty goes from being a players' manager to one who upsets his players.

Dusty's not going to be the man to break the mold...who is? I have no idea. It's more of a CYA move to go by the book and point out that the pitcher just didn't perform when the opportunity was provided than to write a new book. Same thing with an NFL head coach who punts in the 4th quarter of a 21 point game...why...so he doesn't have to answer questions and he can point out that his team's biggest loss was ONLY 21. CYA moments...sports are full of them.

[PuffyPig]

To me with all the tools he has down in the pen, there is zero excuse for the pen to ever blow a game.

You may want to re-consider that sentence.

You are essentially saying the bullpen should never give up a run.

[Johnny Fan]

You may want to re-consider that sentence.

You are essentially saying the bullpen should never give up a run.

No, not blow a save, HUGE difference

[Old school 1983]

Yes, but the closer wasn't the money man then that it is now. Agents would be screaming...players are more numbers oriented, and Baker being a players' manager wants his guys to get their numbers, their milestones. That's where the league is screwed up.

As soon as Baker started using Chapman in the highest leveraged situation in the 7th-9th innings, there would be screaming about Chapman being demoted. The good free agent bullpen arms wouldn't want to come here because Dusty doesn't set roles for them. Think about it, Chapman pitches to the 3-4-5 batters in the 8th and Simon pitches to 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th...makes sense, but Chapman is going to be upset, his agent will be upset, Simon might put too much pressure on himself, articles will be written, questions will be asked. Dusty goes from being a players' manager to one who upsets his players.

Dusty's not going to be the man to break the mold...who is? I have no idea. It's more of a CYA move to go by the book and point out that the pitcher just didn't perform when the opportunity was provided than to write a new book. Same thing with an NFL head coach who punts in the 4th quarter of a 21 point game...why...so he doesn't have to answer questions and he can point out that his team's biggest loss was ONLY 21. CYA moments...sports are full of them.

I see your reasoning. That's why I like the pen his it's setup even if it meant a large contract and a guy who many feel is out of place. It has a closer in any late inning situation even if it isn't the star one.

[PuffyPig]

No, not blow a save, HUGE difference

If a bullpen can give up a run, they can blow a save.

A team will often have a 1 run lead after 5 innings. You're suggesting that would have to be perfect for 4 innings in that situation.

To be guaranteed to not blow a save, a bullpen would have to be perfect.

[Old school 1983]

If a bullpen can give up a run, they can blow a save.

A team will often have a 1 run lead after 5 innings. You're suggesting that would have to be perfect for 4 innings in that situation.

To be guaranteed to not blow a save, a bullpen would have to be perfect.

I'm not defending the guy who said that the reds BP shouldn't blow a save all year. That's pretty far fetched considering the length of the season and the nature of the game. But to say that a bullpen would have to be perfect to guarantee not blowing a save is off the mark too. Sure it is in the one situation you mentioned but that doesn't mean it applies to all situations. There are plenty of save situations that don't require perfect innings and if the reds deal chapman like a lot of posters on here suggest, especially with marshall injury, we better hope that most of the save opportunities are ones where runs can be given up.

[Don Cameron]

If we have two closers at the end of the pen in broxton and chapman, use the better of the two, chapman, in the higher leverage situation. Lou did that with the nasty boys in 1990

I assume you have been watching the 2013 Cincinnati Reds. Broxton is not closer material this year, and really has not been since his early days with the Dodgers. His 2012 Royals performance should be looked at with a grain of salt--it was a contract year and he was closing for a team with no chance to win. NO PRESSURE. When he comes in the eighth inning, it is a Cordero/Stormy Weathers like ride.

I want a person at the end of the game that strikes fear into the hearts of the hitters, and that person is Aroldis Chapman. Will he get CHEAP saves? OF COURSE. But, the opponent's and more importantly the OPPONENTS managers, know they are managing an eight inning game with Chapman at the back of the pen. The Yankees have had that luxury for roughly fifteen years. They have the best reliever in the history of the game. It has worked for them.

Don Cameron
Once Bitten, Twice Shy, babe.