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Thread: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

  1. #61
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    2013 Mike Leake vs. his career:

    K/9
    Career: 6.08
    2013: 6.46

    BB/9
    Career: 2.35
    2013: 2.15

    HR/9
    Career: 1.22
    2013: 0.86

    GB%
    Career: 49.3%
    2013: 52.6%

    Some nice trends there!
    Wow, it's almost like Mike Leake is a young pitcher showing some capacity for improving his game. I've read repeatedly that it's impossible in his case, that he's as good as he's ever going to be. In fact, I had begun to suspect he's no better a pitcher than he was on the day of his birth.

    Yet apparently his velocity is up and his command is better. Somebody ought to tel him that he's ruining a hastily constructed narrative and that he needs to stop doing that immediately.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    CesarGeronimo (05-28-2013), Edd Roush (05-28-2013), HeatherC1212 (05-28-2013), Redeyecat (05-28-2013), wlf WV (06-04-2013), wolfboy (06-01-2013)

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  4. #62
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Wow, it's almost like Mike Leake is a young pitcher showing some capacity for improving his game. I've read repeatedly that it's impossible in his case, that he's as good as he's ever going to be. In fact, I had begun to suspect he's no better a pitcher than he was on the day of his birth.

    Yet apparently his velocity is up and his command is better. Somebody ought to tel him that he's ruining a hastily constructed narrative and that he needs to stop doing that immediately.
    The velocity is up a half MPH from last year, but I'm not sure that's likely a big factor. That said, I don't think max velocity was ever a problem as he was always reportedly able to work as high as 93, 94 but sacrificed a couple miles in exchange for more movement.

    Honestly I don't think there's really any magical differences with Leake right now. His peripherals are all similar to his previous career marks. The inflated HR/FB totals last year were unsustainable and were going to come down regardless. That alone has accounted for some of the success. It does seem that Leake is worrying less about pitching to contact and doing a better job of not making mistakes when behind in the count. But for the most part, I think he's mostly the same pitcher. People just didn't give that guy enough credit IMHO.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  6. #63
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    well, for what it's worth...

    On his last start, Welsh commented that Leake changed his mix of pitches this year. He said Leake was using the slider less and the curve & changeup more often.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    wlf WV (06-04-2013)

  8. #64
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    I'm happy with what Leake has done so far, but I worry that his strand rate makes this level of performance unsustainable.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #65
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Great outing yesterday for leake. When He came up to bat to end the 7th I told my friend I brought to the game, along with everyone around me, that decision would bite dusty in the A$$. And then Low and behold he gave up a Bomb to giambi. Everyone in the stadium had to have seen that coming, I sure couldnt have been the only one. How many times can something like this happen before dusty learns?

  10. #66
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The velocity is up a half MPH from last year, but I'm not sure that's likely a big factor. That said, I don't think max velocity was ever a problem as he was always reportedly able to work as high as 93, 94 but sacrificed a couple miles in exchange for more movement.

    Honestly I don't think there's really any magical differences with Leake right now. His peripherals are all similar to his previous career marks. The inflated HR/FB totals last year were unsustainable and were going to come down regardless. That alone has accounted for some of the success. It does seem that Leake is worrying less about pitching to contact and doing a better job of not making mistakes when behind in the count. But for the most part, I think he's mostly the same pitcher. People just didn't give that guy enough credit IMHO.
    I definitely agree with the last part. I think the velocity is up a bit because he's learning how to add it without sacrificing movement and control. In a few years, Leake might be able to paint with his fastball: pinpoint location with varied types of movement and the ability to add and subtract from it at will. If it all comes together for him, he's seriously going to mess with hitters' timing.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye
    I'm happy with what Leake has done so far, but I worry that his strand rate makes this level of performance unsustainable.
    Strand rate tends to go up when your HR rate goes down. His doubles rate is way down too. I would expect that latter one to rise a bit during the rest of the season. Anyway, his BABIP has been high this first 1/3 of the season, so a correction to the team average there could offset any decrease in his strand rate.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #67
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Anyone remember when they were talking about Leake wowing people in spring training?

    Coincidence or no?

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    Redeyecat (05-28-2013), REDREAD (05-29-2013)

  13. #68
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Wow, it's almost like Mike Leake is a young pitcher showing some capacity for improving his game. I've read repeatedly that it's impossible in his case, that he's as good as he's ever going to be. In fact, I had begun to suspect he's no better a pitcher than he was on the day of his birth.

    Yet apparently his velocity is up and his command is better. Somebody ought to tel him that he's ruining a hastily constructed narrative and that he needs to stop doing that immediately.
    or he's really just had a hot May as April was right in line with his career numbers. Hey, I love that he's pitching well. I'd have preferred Chapman in that spot but that ship has sailed. I'm doubting we see Arroyo next year in a Reds uni, so it's likely Leake moves to the #4 spot with Cingrani at #5.

    Leake may have turned a corner... It is interesting that STARK improvement came as Cingrani joined the team and rumors began to circulate. I don't care why he's suddenly an 8+ K/9 guy (May) just that he seems to have found a way to do that. As for trending numbers... it's 10 starts, and really it's 5 where he's suddenly something more than a BOR guy.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #69
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by coachpipe View Post
    Great outing yesterday for leake. When He came up to bat to end the 7th I told my friend I brought to the game, along with everyone around me, that decision would bite dusty in the A$$. And then Low and behold he gave up a Bomb to giambi. Everyone in the stadium had to have seen that coming, I sure couldnt have been the only one. How many times can something like this happen before dusty learns?
    This probably belongs in the "Let's give Dusty Baker some negative credit" thread.

  15. #70
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by coachpipe View Post
    Great outing yesterday for leake. When He came up to bat to end the 7th I told my friend I brought to the game, along with everyone around me, that decision would bite dusty in the A$$. And then Low and behold he gave up a Bomb to giambi. Everyone in the stadium had to have seen that coming, I sure couldnt have been the only one. How many times can something like this happen before dusty learns?
    Jason Giambi has made a handsome career being a good-to-great hitter. Leake didn't even make a bad pitch but Giambi put a great swing on it. While the outcome was unfortunate, it's not like Leake left that fat over the heart of the plate.

    -Matt

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  17. #71
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Hopefully Leake's Krate and HR/FB wont regress to his career norms (and no, no one is saying 16% is his career norm). But it is a certainty that his LOB% is due for a significant regression downward.

    The biggest difference between Leake career-wise and his 2013 small sample is that he's been much more effective against right-handed hitters this season than in the past based upon outcomes. He's been throwing more change ups to righties this season so that might be impacting this performance but he's got alot of room to regress and it's tough to see what could go up to off set the LOB% that is going to eventually work it's way down and that's with him already having career best K and HR rates on the young season.
    Last edited by jojo; 05-28-2013 at 03:05 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #72
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Another solid outing by Leake tonight which has lowered his ERA down to under 3.00. Not bad for our "5th" starter.

    -Matt

  19. #73
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Leake is gonna get paid big time next year.

  20. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    Leake is gonna get paid big time next year.
    Leake will be the next Arroyo for the next few years.

  21. #75
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Let's give Mike Leake some credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    Leake is gonna get paid big time next year.
    The 5 Million Dollar Man?


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