Originally Posted by RedEye
I'm not trying to convince you from where you sit. I'm not even going to where you sit.
I agree with what Brutus and others have said statistically. One thing that is hard to quantify, of course, is the good old "eye test." Leake just looks different this year. There is a confidence about him that has never been there that suggests to me he is a bona fide major league pitcher now. He's always been solid and I can think of several dozen teams that would love to have him in their rotation even at his previous level. If he keeps this up the Reds have something nice on their hands.
Brutus (06-13-2013)
Yeah...Leake had me a bit worried at the beginning of this season but I've always been a staunch supporter of his (it helps that he plays for my favorite team, and has the same birthday hua hua) but just remember he's still relatively young in baseball terms. He skipped the minors entirely so he was always going to face a tough learning curve. Will he ever be an ace pitcher? It's unlikely, but the potential is there with the stuff he can throw and his demeanor.
I like what he brings to us, and even though people don't like to talk about it he also makes it a little easier to move one of Cueto/Latos/Bailey when the time comes if he can remain close to this good consistently.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
_Sir_Charles_ (06-13-2013)
This whole pitching staff of starters has really taken on the workload to overcome this bad middle relief. I hope they do not run out of gas by August.
except in the regard that his ERA is in the 4's. You just compared Mike Leake to 3 HOF caliber pitchers. those guys may have seen their ERA go up against bad teams, but it was still shockingly good. just sayin'. I see the point you are trying to illustrate there, but my point is Leake, in his history hasn't been much more than a #4 or #5 starter. He's dominating BAD teams. That's got a ton of value.
His next three opponents: Pittsburgh, AZ and possibly TX (Btw, I'll be at the TX series
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Leake's LD% went from 24.5% last year to 18.1% so far this year. Now, last year was very high, quite poor, and it has jumped to one of the best rates among starters in the NL. I think we'd all agree this is quite significant. Huge jump.
But where did the line drives go? This is a percentage of batted balls, so it didn't go to strikeouts. And I think, for a pitcher like Leake, it would be bad if it all went to fly balls.
So the groundball increase from 48.9% to 51.4% (as of today) is helpful. The increase is not that much, but it is essential IMO that Leake emphasizes grounders as much as possible.
Also, according to Pitch f/x he is throwing fewer regular fastballs and more sinkers. This may be resulting in more grounders. And, to me, a pitcher like Leake should have 50% or more grounders and he is nicely above that level.
Yesterday's game had an impact on these numbers. Fly ball rate went up a bit; ground ball rate went down a bit; line drive rate remains very good. Was as fly ball day apparently.
Leake has allowed 5 earned runs only once this season; 4 earned runs twice; 3 earned runs twice. These outings were against the better teams -- Washington (two games); Pirates; Braves; Cards.
This would be disturbing except these games were not that bad and two of them were in early April. So I'm very pleased with Leake and I think the second half of this year will tell us a great deal about him.
Last edited by Kc61; 06-13-2013 at 10:14 AM.
His last 5 games were against NYM, CLE, PIT, STL and CHC. Obviously the first and last are quite bad, but he put up 0 runs against Pittsburgh, 1 run against Cleveland and 3 runs against St. Louis (the best team in the league right now). Those are not bad numbers against above-average to great teams.He's dominating BAD teams. That's got a ton of value.
His next three opponents: Pittsburgh, AZ and possibly TX (Btw, I'll be at the TX series
Credit where credit is due sir. Even in spring training one could see that Leake was throwing with new confidence this year. He's renewed my faith in him.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
jimbo (06-13-2013)
There's a chance that Travis Wood's numbers this year are a mirage and will regress big time.
He has the highest fly ball rate of any qualified pitcher in the NL. 45.8%.
Yet, only 5.6% of them are going for homers.
If that HR/FB rate normalizes by going up some, given all the fly balls, Wood will have a serious problem.
Leake is much more of a ground ball pitcher. Given the stadiums in the Central, I'd take Leake and if Marshall is healthy I'd do the trade again.
Nobody is arguing that this has occurred. The question is whether or not it's a function of Leake doing something different or whether it is due to factors beyond his control (quality of hitters he's faced, random variance, etc.).
As you went on to point out, we can see he's tweaking his pitch mix -- throwing fewer sliders and cutters and adding a few more sinkers, curveballs and especially change ups.
The apparent logic would be less side-to-side movement and more up-and-down movement. So there's a hypothesis there. But right now, the combination of small samples from a results standpoint* and the relatively modest changes in the things we know directly controls* and we can't begin to draw any conclusions.
*Small samples of results: He's thrown 80 innings. If a few timely outs from balls that found gloves carried out as HRs instead, we wouldn't be having this conversation at all. When a few plays can the make the difference between having and not having the conversation, that's a sign that you have weak evidence.
I won't even bother getting to the splitting hairs around individual outings against certain opponents, though I'd be interesting to see an assessment of the overall strength of schedule he's faced this year compared to years passed.
*Direct control: It's not like he scrapped a pitch entirely, we're talking something like 5-10 different pitches per game. I can certainly see that having an effect, but we can't assume all of those different pitches are happening in important situations or resulting in balls being hit more weakly than they otherwise would have been.
What I find most interesting is if you look at his SIERA, a BP created ERA estimator (like FIP) that includes batted ball types but still tries to factor our "luck", here's how Leake has looked the last three years:
2011: 3.76
2012: 4.01
2013: 3.79
I too am looking forward to how he performs the rest of the year. I'm hopeful that his adjusted pitch mix will reduce his HR against rate. I just wouldn't advise anybody hold their breath on him being more than a very solid #3/4 type in the Arroyo mold.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
My bottom line on this pitcher is that he needs to maximize his strikeouts and ground balls. That's his key to success.
A guy like Cingrani may be able to survive as a fly ball pitcher. He misses bats, may not allow many baserunners. Homers may often be solos.
Leake is more hittable and will give up baserunners, batted balls will fall in. He can't therefore allow a lot of homers or much damage will be inflicted.
So any increase in Ks or grounders is a big positive for Leake. However it's accomplished, that's what he needs to focus on, especially with the fine defensive infield.
He's producing quality results right now.
As a rule, I still dislike having shorter RHPs that do not consistently throw above 90 MPH on my staff.
Credit where credit is due and all hope for continued success, but he's not someone I'd consider in my franchise plans past his arbitration years.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
TRF (06-13-2013)
Purely anecdotal evidence to be sure, but I posted at least six weeks ago that it seemed to me Leake is throwing harder and with more sink. I fully respect the random variance arguments but it is possible for pitchers to do things to get better sometimes.
On Wood, even last year his WHIP was a good 1.199 with only 7.7 hits per nine. I think people have forgotten a little just how good he was in 2010: 102.2 at 1.08 WHIP, 7.5 K's per nine, at age 23. I'm not saying it was a bad trade; it was a complex trade of longer term possibility for shorter term need. I do think it's probably fair to ask if Walt got enough for Wood. Of course the counter-claim is that it's unlikely he'd have gotten to the same point of development if he'd stayed in the Reds organization.
He was brilliant yesterday. He's been much better than I anticipated for the year, to be honest.
And I am no Mike Leake fan. I've thought all along Aroldis should have his spot in the rotation, and I still wish Chapman was starting. I'm also not a big fan of Leake's personality, mostly due to his BS explanation for stealing a handful of $9 shirts from Macy's.
But in the end, he wears the wishbone C and until that is no longer the case I hope how goes 32-0 with an ERA of 0.00.
Unfortunately he's been HUGE FAILURE at reaching the above stats and for that I'll never forgive him but his numbers in real life aren't too bad either.
Good work, Mr. Leake.
Phil Castellini puts the FUN in Trust Fund.
I'm not buying him as this sub 3 ERA Maddux-lite, but you really dislike Leake as a #4 starter at this point?
Okay, cool. It's kind of uncomfortable over here anyway. Always dealing with pesky things like actual evidence.
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