Most important player to NL Central teams

[SpiritofStLouis]

I grew up a Reds fan in Cardinal country in the '80s, so I feel for you. It does become hard to stay objective in such a situation. You have it worse, as the average Cards fans is now like the average Cubs fan. At least when I was there, they were very classy, we just got into debates, and I was never picked on for being a Reds fan.

A bit of a reach, no ?

One team has fans that can be arrogant, based on past success. The other team has fans that can be arrogant, bases on too much Old Style.

[Old school 1983]

A bit of a reach, no ?

One team has fans that can be arrogant, based on past success. The other team has fans that can be arrogant, bases on too much Old Style.

At least the cards arrogance can be traced to recent events whereas the cubs alcohol induced arrogance can be traced back to a time when there hadn't been a 1st world war. Tinker to Evers to chance. Kinda reminds me if the episode of the Simpsons where Smithers had to tell burns one of his proposed players had been dead for over 80 years.

[757690]

C'mon, you're better than that.

I think.

How many MLB players, before the 1990's, had six years of well below average OPS (.688), and then suddenly had two plus years of well above OPS (.850)?

Logic tells us that Molina likely has done something unnatural to increase his production. It is highly inprobable that such an improvement in production was from hard work or a change in skill.

[SpiritofStLouis]

At least the cards arrogance can be traced to recent events whereas the cubs alcohol induced arrogance can be traced back to a time when there hadn't been a 1st world war. Tinker to Evers to chance. Kinda reminds me if the episode of the Simpsons where Smithers had to tell burns one of his proposed players had been dead for over 80 years.

It just never gets old.

[westofyou]

How many MLB players, before the 1990's, had six years of well below average OPS (.688), and then suddenly had two plus years of well above OPS (.850)?

Logic tells us that Molina likely has done something unnatural to increase his production. It is highly inprobable that such an improvement in production was from hard work or a change in skill.

2004-2010

YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS

     TOTALS           805  2680  223  718 122   2  41   1.53  325  220  253   21  16  .268  .361  .327  .688 
     LG AVERAGE            2762  379  740 152  17  86   3.10  361  279  530   48  19  .268  .428  .339  .767 
     POS AVERAGE           2700  285  688 142   7  70   2.58  347  246  499   12   8  .255  .390  .322  .712

Three guys who had similar paths (under .700 ops under 28 then above .800)

Red Schoendienst
Jose Cardenal
Terry Pendleton

Oddly all were Cards at one time.

[SpiritofStLouis]

How many MLB players, before the 1990's, had six years of well below average OPS (.688), and then suddenly had two plus years of well above OPS (.850)?

Logic tells us that Molina likely has done something unnatural to increase his production. It is highly inprobable that such an improvement in production was from hard work or a change in skill.

Yadi's OPS was .740 in 2008 and .749 in 2009. His HR total increased by 8 from 2010 to 2011 and by 8 from 2011 to 2012. Both 2011 and 2012 were career highs in HRs, which accounts for the career totals in OPS.

If that jump leads you to believe that Yadi suddenly decided to take performance enhancing drugs, after MLB implemented it's most comprehensive drug testing problem to date, knock yourself out.

No one says you have to give Yadi credit for being one of the best catchers in MLB, but the petty jealousy you show by offering unfounded excuses is rather embarrassing.

[757690]

2004-2010

YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS

     TOTALS           805  2680  223  718 122   2  41   1.53  325  220  253   21  16  .268  .361  .327  .688 
     LG AVERAGE            2762  379  740 152  17  86   3.10  361  279  530   48  19  .268  .428  .339  .767 
     POS AVERAGE           2700  285  688 142   7  70   2.58  347  246  499   12   8  .255  .390  .322  .712

Three guys who had similar paths (under .700 ops under 28 then above .800)

Red Schoendienst
Jose Cardenal
Terry Pendleton

Oddly all were Cards at one time.

Thanks.

That just makes my argument stronger. Three times in the history of MLB. Pretty long odds that a jump like that is natural.

[757690]

Yadi's OPS was .740 in 2008 and .749 in 2009. His HR total increased by 8 from 2010 to 2011 and by 8 from 2011 to 2012. Both 2011 and 2012 were career highs in HRs, which accounts for the career totals in OPS.

If that jump leads you to believe that Yadi suddenly decided to take performance enhancing drugs, after MLB implemented it's most comprehensive drug testing problem to date, knock yourself out.

No one says you have to give Yadi credit for being one of the best catchers in MLB, but the petty jealousy you show by offering unfounded excuses is rather embarrassing.

I'm saying 2011 and 2012 are the suspicious years. The stats you posted demonstrate that.

My argument is not unfounded, it's actually backed up strongly by facts, facts that you yourself posted, and history.

I'm not saying that I know that Yadi used PED's, just that any intelligent person has to be suspicious of how he made such an improvement over such a short period of time. Seeing how other players in the 1990's made similar improvements, and we know that they do so by using PED's, it actually is the most logical explanation.

Add in that Mark McGwire was his hitting coach during that period, and his manager has a long history of playing PED users, it makes even more sense.

I would have to say that Cardinal fans that deny the possibility that Yadi used PED's are the biased ones.

If Ryan Hanigan all the sudden started hitting 15-20 homers a year and OPSing over .800, the very first thought that would,go through my mind is that he used PeEd's and it probably would be yours as well.

[MikeThierry]

Molina has always had a low strikeout rate and great bat control. He is one of the few players I have seen who see's a hole in the defense and can put the ball in play through a hole to beat the defense. He's also one of the few players I've ever seen get base hits by throwing his bat at the ball. The bottom line is that those skills have always been there so it's no surprise that by becoming more fit, his power numbers would increase. Now you can use the mentally weak argument of PED's as an explanation for his success but you are completely ignoring whole sets of data that point out reasons why his career has become better on the offensive front.

As fangraphs shows, he's always had great line drive rates even when he was younger. In fact, Yadier Molina's line drive rate is higher than Pujols career line drive rate. It also shows Yadier averaging an insanely low 8.7% strikeout rate within his career, which is even lower than Pujols career K rate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ion=C#advanced

EDIT: It should also be noted that prior to McGwire coming to St. Louis, he was all over the place with his batting stance. He would constantly change it. Now he has stuck to once batting stance. That certainly would help in maintaining production if the mechanics of his swing remained constant.

[MikeThierry]

Once you guys have to use up Tavares, Wong and Wacha you will have nothing. I'm surprised so fan Reds fans on here think Molina is that good. I live here, watch a lot of Cards games and can tell you he is way overrated. I'm not sure how it got started nationally, but he does nothing mind blowing on defense. He's had 1 good power year, that's it, and has 2 HR's only this year.

The Cards don't have the depth or arms to hang with the Reds, and I'll happily be back in September when the Cards have fallen in 3rd place. Wainwright, Miller and Lynn won't be enough in the rotation.

Meanwhile, the Reds continue to win and the Cards can't pull away. With Cueto back, it's all over. Walt will trade for another bat and it won't be close. Eat my words I will not, and I have a feeling Cards fans won't be posting on a Reds board 2 months from now because there will be nothing to say.

I just don't get all the love for Molina, especially on a Reds board. I imagine most fans go by what they hear on the MLB network, but I watch a lot of the Cards, and he's league average at best.

Oh well, I guess it will be fun to talk about. The Cards fans I work with are nervous about the Reds, but I doubt many Reds fans are worried about the Cards. Pittsburgh is the team to watch out for, not the Cards. They always start hot, and end up sneaking in the playoffs as a wild card.

I also think it's funny how the guys at work talk about Chrissy Carpenter coming back. Holding out hope of your season on a 38 year old pitcher screams of desperation. He won't pitch again, and hasn't been good in a few years now when he has pitched.

Your posts become more laughable the more you post. Yeah, you're right that once Taveras and Wong come up, the Cards will have a depleted system. What that means though is that the Cards will have a very young team and a very talented team at the major league level. It also means the Cardinals will have a ton of cost control on their players for years to come. I liken it to the Reds. The Reds had one of the best farm systems in baseball a couple of years ago. They brought up the talent and it's a mid-ranged system now. However it really doesn't matter at this point for the Reds that their system is where it is because the talent on the major league team to where they don't need the system very much.

I guess being the best defensive catcher in baseball doesn't blow your mind. The people at the Fielding Bible disagree with you:

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2007-winners.asp

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2008-winners.asp

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2009-winners.asp

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2010-winners.asp

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp

Yadier is back. After a one-year hiatus when he came in second to Matt Wieters, Molina wins his fifth Fielding Bible Award, tying him with Albert Pujols for the most awards won in the seven-year history of The Fielding Bible Awards. In 2011 Molina dropped to his all-time low only throwing out 25% of baserunners attempting to steal. In 2012 he threw out 46%, an MLB leading percentage in line with the rest of his career. On top of that he was superlative handling bunts, saving four runs in the process and giving him 16 Defensive Runs Saved on the season, the most among catchers in baseball last year

Yep... just an average defensive catcher

[757690]

Molina has always had a low strikeout rate and great bat control. He is one of the few players I have seen who see's a hole in the defense and can put the ball in play through a hole to beat the defense. He's also one of the few players I've ever seen get base hits by throwing his bat at the ball. The bottom line is that those skills have always been there so it's no surprise that by becoming more fit, his power numbers would increase. Now you can use the mentally weak argument of PED's as an explanation for his success but you are completely ignoring whole sets of data that point out reasons why his career has become better on the offensive front.

As fangraphs shows, he's always had great line drive rates even when he was younger. In fact, Yadier Molina's line drive rate is higher than Pujols career line drive rate. It also shows Yadier averaging an insanely low 8.7% strikeout rate within his career, which is even lower than Pujols career K rate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ion=C#advanced

EDIT: It should also be noted that prior to McGwire coming to St. Louis, he was all over the place with his batting stance. He would constantly change it. Now he has stuck to once batting stance. That certainly would help in maintaining production if the mechanics of his swing remained constant.

Yadi always had been a decent on base guy, as your numbers demonstrate. However, he never demonstrated any power, not even in the minors. His power numbers were well below average.

All of the sudden, he's has above average power. I'm sorry, but a new batting stance just doesn't explain increased power. He's not hitting more flyballs or line drives, it's just that more of his flyballs and line drives are becoming home runs. The only way that happens to the degree that it has, is if he is personally stronger.

There is a possibility that Molina became stronger by working out more, but it's very rare for someone who is already a top athlete to get stronger at the age of 28 simply from working out more. The most logical explanation for Yadi's power surge is that he got external help. Maybe what he's taking in legal and natural, but it probably isn't.

[SpiritofStLouis]

Yadi always had been a decent on base guy, as your numbers demonstrate. However, he never demonstrated any power, not even in the minors. His power numbers were well below average.

All of the sudden, he's has above average power. I'm sorry, but a new batting stance just doesn't explain increased power. He's not hitting more flyballs or line drives, it's just that more of his flyballs and line drives are becoming home runs. The only way that happens to the degree that it has, is if he is personally stronger.

There is a possibility that Molina became stronger by working out more, but it's very rare for someone who is already a top athlete to get stronger at the age of 28 simply from working out more. The most logical explanation for Yadi's power surge is that he got external help. Maybe what he's taking in legal and natural, but it probably isn't.

If he is indeed guilty of using PEDs, then he will get caught and suspended. He has never been accused, except by you, and as far as I know, he has never been suspected or even mentioned (again, except by you), so I will presume him innocent until it is proven otherwise.

By the way, Yadi has 2 home runs this year. Did he stop using or did his supply run out ? Then again, I have seen the same drop off from Joey Votto. Maybe they have the same source.

[Johnny Fan]

I'm still confused to why people say closers here are a dime a dozen it really don't matter. Sure average closers are pretty easy to replace but shut down closers like chapman are not. To evaluate this only through saying so and so would get the same amount of saves as chapman so therefore he is an equal closer is ludicrous. Chapman has an effect that goes much farther than the save, which by all accounts is a very flawed way to measure a closers effectiveness, so why should it be used in an argument to compare on potential closer to another? Chapman anchors the back of the pen and allows for a nasty a boys type situation where the game is more or less over in the 7th for the most part with Marshall broxton then chapman. Having a setup like this makes the opposing team press earlier in the game and maybe not use the best strategy to win because they know they'll probably be shutdown the last three innings. Also there is a huge intimidation factor with knowing the game is probably over after 6 innings. This could play huge in a playoff situation. Chapman as the closer also saves the reds from going to guys like ondrusek or Simon in high leverage situations in say the 7th or 8th inning. So chapman a value as a closer cannot just be measured in saves. No shut down closers ability can. I'm not saying that he's the most important player on the team. That's pretty out there, but at the same time the thinking that closers are not important and bullpen guys are a dime a dozen kills me. So does the theory that a lot of people hold here that since chapman isn't starting we aren't getting maximum value out of him so he should be traded. That assumes a lot of stuff. Such as the closer being over rated In his effect, the fact that chapman would be a good starter ( I think so, but i think this year he should have been in the pen. Reds are going for it. Put your players in proven positions is success) and finally we assume we could get a huge return for him in a trade.

Exactly what is a "shut down closer"? If you look around baseball you will see that closers come and go and outside of maybe 1-2 most have very fleeting careers and are replaced regulary. WHY? Because it's not that tough to be one. Chapman also isn't a pitcher, hasn't been during his time with the reds. Chapman is a thrower at this point, he doesn't have the skill set at this point to be termed a pitcher. He is very much like Randy Johnson was early in his career. He would just wind up and throw it up there and hope they don't hit it. A pitcher is someone with a number of different pitches at their command, the ability to have movement on their pitches and above have the ability to spot a pitch location wise when they want to. Chapman can't do any of that at this point in his career. This team would be where it is now without Chapman.

[757690]

If he is indeed guilty of using PEDs, then he will get caught and suspended. He has never been accused, except by you, and as far as I know, he has never been suspected or even mentioned (again, except by you), so I will presume him innocent until it is proven otherwise.

By the way, Yadi has 2 home runs this year. Did he stop using or did his supply run out ? Then again, I have seen the same drop off from Joey Votto. Maybe they have the same source.

First, Votto has seven homers this year, and last year got injured, so not sure what you're talking about. And maybe Yadi did stop using whatever he was using out of fear of getting caught? Although his overall power numbers aren't down by the much.

Second, plenty of people have been suspicious of Molina and lots of other players. Just go to other message boards.

Third, did you suspect Melky Cabrera or Ryan Braun before they failed their drug tests? Was anyone accusing them before they got caught?

Fans are naive if they think only players who get caught are guilty of PED use. Not everyone gets tested, it's random. With the money out there, and the weak penalties, we can understand why some players might try, at least for a year or two to build up some nice numbers for a big contract... Kinda like the one Molina signed after his first big, breakout year.

Again, I'm not saying Molina is guilty of PED use, just that a rarional look at the facts would at the very least make one suspicious.

[Old school 1983]

Exactly what is a "shut down closer"? If you look around baseball you will see that closers come and go and outside of maybe 1-2 most have very fleeting careers and are replaced regulary. WHY? Because it's not that tough to be one. Chapman also isn't a pitcher, hasn't been during his time with the reds. Chapman is a thrower at this point, he doesn't have the skill set at this point to be termed a pitcher. He is very much like Randy Johnson was early in his career. He would just wind up and throw it up there and hope they don't hit it. A pitcher is someone with a number of different pitches at their command, the ability to have movement on their pitches and above have the ability to spot a pitch location wise when they want to. Chapman can't do any of that at this point in his career. This team would be where it is now without Chapman.

Chapman doesn't have an 100% conversion rate but people often say that he and Cordero had similar save conversion stats. Who would you rather have out there in the ninth? A guy that can work through it but gives the other team hope by being hittable, or a guy like chapman, who is generally not very hittable and can shut down the game pretty rapidly with three Ks? I think I'm going chapman if that option is available and thinking that trading him and using a different guy in the 9th doesn't weaken the 9th and the overall structure of the pen doesn't make much sense to me whether he be a pitcher or thrower.