Response to Rolen over Frazier

[Johnny Fan]

Frazier is you're weakest starter. Our should be starting left fielder atm is playing center, our best prospect who is currently heating up at AAA is a centerfielder with great range and speed and could bat second. All things this team needs. That leaves Frazier to be replaced unless you think you can find a four hole hitting shortstop. Frazier is a 27 year old prospect who played over his head one season. I just wish people would see that. He is no long term solution and probably needs to be part of a platoon now. People talk about him not being a FA until 2018. I doubt hell be in the league by then. If he is it'd be a great shock.

Heating up? You do know his lack of arm strength was one reason he was moved from SS? Having a sub average arm strength for a CF isn't real good also. You are already calling Fraziers first year a "fluke", but ready to heap praise on a untested minor league player who has switched position and not played even a full year of AAA? Your reasoning makes no sense? Frazier has shown he can plan on the ML level at this point, Hamilton has even shown th ability to produce strong numbers on the AAA level yet consistantly.

[Old school 1983]

I'm not saying you're right or saying that you're wrong, but doesn't Frazier at least deserve a full year at 3B before we say "No, he's not the answer" or "Yes, he is"?

Right now he's #3 in the NL in fielding percentage at 3B, only has 2 E's. Baseball Reference shows him as being worth 4 runs above average defensively (using Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg/projected at 14 for the season) or 3 runs above average (using Defensive Runs Saved from Baseball Info Sources/projected at 10 for the season). Along those same lines, Rolen provided 3 in 2010, 2 in 2011, 2 in 2012 or BIS of 10 in 2010, 10 in 2011, and 0 in 2012.

I just feel like the knee jerk reaction to replace Frazier or move him to LF or whatever is what the old regime would do...give him this season and almost 2 full ML seasons' worth of data before we pass full judgement on him.

If it were a rebuilding type year I'd say give him a chance for sure. But they are not. Honestly I think they could use more hitters that gives a tougher at bat. Defensive stats are nice and all but even fan graphs admits that fielding stats can be misrepresented very easily. And really the only rallying cry most people point to is his OPS which in my opinion is inflated by going off on poor pitching, while looking lost against anything that is above average pitching. If anyone wants stats just look at his gone road slips before this last road trip against average and lollipop teams. On the road we had played very stiff competition and his average was barely in the interstate as far as hitting. Usually I'd say ok small sample size lets give him a full season shot, but his approach at the plate doesn't leand itself to long term success.

I think he is an averagish player that offers skills that a baseball team could like, but those are skills the reds already have in better hitters and players that are better defensively at their position. The reds need more professional type hitters that can grind out at bats and make a pitcher work. These are not elite type players. Joe randa, tood walker, Jeff keppinger, Fernando vina, mark Loretta, kotsay when he was younger are examples. They aren't that hard to come by hell three of them I named were reds during the lost decade.

[Old school 1983]

Problem with your view...numbers don't support it.

I sure am glad baseball is played in the field and not a stat book. There an old saying that goes lies, damn lies, and statistics. More or less statistics lie and can be easily misinterpreted and misrepresented. A baseball players net worth to a team contains more that just his numbers. If you want to watch stats go to fan graphs, ill watch the game.

[Don Cameron]

I am really not sure what the purpose of this thread anymore, to be honest. Rolen was horrible...HORRIBLE for the past year and a half, at least. He had no...NO pop in his bat. When he would run into one, he hit it about ten feet short of the warning track. His range reminded me of Pete Rose's range at third base. He was/is DONE.

Francisco was not your answer. We do not/did not need a left handed bat. We need a strong right handed bat.

Frazier will be a competent, but not overwhelming third baseman for the Reds. Not every player in the line-up has to hit .260 with 20 and 100 rbi.

He is too old to have any IMPACTFUL trade meaning. Let him hit 6 or 7 and play it out.

Don Cameron
Once bitten--twice shy

[Johnny Fan]

I sure am glad baseball is played in the field and not a stat book. There an old saying that goes lies, damn lies, and statistics. More or less statistics lie and can be easily misinterpreted and misrepresented. A baseball players net worth to a team contains more that just his numbers. If you want to watch stats go to fan graphs, ill watch the game.

I agree numbers are not the entire story, but you can't disguard them either. You say Frazier is a defensive liabilty, but the numbers say other wise and I do watch the games and see him cover a ton of ground both to his left and right and at this point only 2 errors on the season. I think with any player in his second season you will have doubts, but to brush him off so easily and hype and unseen, unproven unknown talent in Hamilton doesn't make sense.

[Old school 1983]

I agree numbers are not the entire story, but you can't disguard them either. You say Frazier is a defensive liabilty, but the numbers say other wise and I do watch the games and see him cover a ton of ground both to his left and right and at this point only 2 errors on the season. I think with any player in his second season you will have doubts, but to brush him off so easily and hype and unseen, unproven unknown talent in Hamilton doesn't make sense.

The thing is I don't want to brush him off unless the reds can get a better option at third in a trade. I'd just like to see him be platooned with hannahan would would play versus tough right handed pitching. I don't just want to dump the dude. He obviously is a hard worker and and has some power potential. And really being the weakest starting player on a pretty stacked team like the reds doesn't mean you're horrible, I means you're average-ish.

My main point too is that just looking to trade for a left fielder is a little narrow minded and could cause issues and not leave many options. If that's all the reds can get then ill go with it but I think they should look at third basemen too. Mostly likey Frazier will not be an impact type player at any point, but, in a trade, packaged with good prospects, he would have some value. Get a good right handed hitting guy at third and you aren't dependent on ludwick coming back strong, but if he does, you can play both. If lutz continues to look tough, you can continue to develop him. If Hamilton comes on strong choo can move to left and Hamilton to center. If not you could trade for a rental cf. it leaves many more options than getting a LF would. And also some people seem to think Frazier will be some kind of rising star for the next 5 to 8 years. That's be great, but more realistically hell be around average, and I have no issue giving up average if the right situation occurred where the reds could get a 4 hole type to play third and leave options open in the outfield. I was never saying he sucks a d DFA him or anything like that. That's extremely short sided.

[Johnny Fan]

The thing is I don't want to brush him off unless the reds can get a better option at third in a trade. I'd just like to see him be platooned with hannahan would would play versus tough right handed pitching. I don't just want to dump the dude. He obviously is a hard worker and and has some power potential. And really being the weakest starting player on a pretty stacked team like the reds doesn't mean you're horrible, I means you're average-ish.

My main point too is that just looking to trade for a left fielder is a little narrow minded and could cause issues and not leave many options. If that's all the reds can get then ill go with it but I think they should look at third basemen too. Mostly likey Frazier will not be an impact type player at any point, but, in a trade, packaged with good prospects, he would have some value. Get a good right handed hitting guy at third and you aren't dependent on ludwick coming back strong, but if he does, you can play both. If lutz continues to look tough, you can continue to develop him. If Hamilton comes on strong choo can move to left and Hamilton to center. If not you could trade for a rental cf. it leaves many more options than getting a LF would. And also some people seem to think Frazier will be some kind of rising star for the next 5 to 8 years. That's be great, but more realistically hell be around average, and I have no issue giving up average if the right situation occurred where the reds could get a 4 hole type to play third and leave options open in the outfield. I was never saying he sucks a d DFA him or anything like that. That's extremely short sided.

If I had to grade out position by position from most needed improvment to least, I would go:

LF - Black hole and little chance Ludwich impacts this season
SS - Cozart good but has holes in game exposed by hitting 2nd
Catcher - Unknow future with Mez
CF - What happens after this season, hugh impact on team
3rd - Frazier suffering bit of soph slump, next season key
RF - Great D, strong potential, but lacks consistancy
2nd - Age
1st - body can stay healthy

[Goose1701]

I sure am glad baseball is played in the field and not a stat book. There an old saying that goes lies, damn lies, and statistics. More or less statistics lie and can be easily misinterpreted and misrepresented. A baseball players net worth to a team contains more that just his numbers. If you want to watch stats go to fan graphs, ill watch the game.

Let me guess, damn nerds need to stay in their mother's basement right?

You're the type of guy that with an attitude like that, NOBODY is gonna take ANYTHING you say seriously. It's 2013, time to get with the times.

[westofyou]

I sure am glad baseball is played in the field and not a stat book. There an old saying that goes lies, damn lies, and statistics. More or less statistics lie and can be easily misinterpreted and misrepresented. A baseball players net worth to a team contains more that just his numbers. If you want to watch stats go to fan graphs, ill watch the game.

The game is important and stats are just the recording of the action, but it's enough to tell us that Jeff Francore is crap

Otherwise the league would full of junk like him

[Old school 1983]

Heating up? You do know his lack of arm strength was one reason he was moved from SS? Having a sub average arm strength for a CF isn't real good also. You are already calling Fraziers first year a "fluke", but ready to heap praise on a untested minor league player who has switched position and not played even a full year of AAA? Your reasoning makes no sense? Frazier has shown he can plan on the ML level at this point, Hamilton has even shown th ability to produce strong numbers on the AAA level yet consistantly.

Do you know you're the only person or scouting report that I've seen that says his arm isn't at least average? Also Hamilton offers a skillset that would improve the reds in three areas. Centerfield, team speed, and maybe in the two spot in the batting order. Fraziers skillset helps what? The 6th spot and adds power when he actually does hit it which is 23% of the time. His defense adds no value. It's average good enough not to allow mistakes but not good enough to prevent much. Hamiltons defense is already being classified as above average just based on his speed and range alone. I just don't get why everyone is so down on the guy and would rather get a rental out of house solution. Hamilton doesn't need to be Jose Reyes or Choo or any star lead off hitter. He needs to be billy Hamilton to help this team out. If he gets on base about 30 to 33% of the time, uses his speed in the base paths and plays defense using his range and speed then he could add value to this team whereas Frazier will probably never give it more than it already has.

And just for the record I'd love to be a GM if reds zone ran the front office. I could trade prospects spare parts and maybe one star player for chapman, Hamilton, Hrod, lutz, cingrani, soto, Stephenson, Bruce, leake, Mez, cozart, broxton, and corcino. Hell with those players alone you could almost field a good team and have future depth.

[Old school 1983]

Let me guess, damn nerds need to stay in their mother's basement right?

You're the type of guy that with an attitude like that, NOBODY is gonna take ANYTHING you say seriously. It's 2013, time to get with the times.

No I said nothing about living in their mothers basement. Stats have their place in baseball, but like with stats in anything else they can be misrepresented, misinterpreted and skewed by a variety of factors. You have to take stats and combine them with what you see on the field, and what type of players a team could use to make them better. That's when you get true value out of stats. When you combine them with what is going on on the field, how players play together, how a lineup plays together, and how individual players approach the game. To take stats alone or the eye test alone is just poor evaluation of the game. If you just look at stats and say well this guy must be better than this guy because his ops is higher or strikeouts don't matter in all circumstances, you paint yourself into a corner and can only evaluate what is going on with in baseball through a very narrow filter.

And frankly I don't care if most people here take me seriously. I've been watching baseball pretty much since birth. Amongst my group of friends and family, they have seen me make correct observations, and evaluations for years. Sometimes I'm wrong we all are, but more often than not I'm right and that's all I really care about....if the people in real life know that I know what I'm talking about. If people here want to listen or not or talk to me or not, that's their choice and usually unless its a personal attack, it's no big deal to me.

[Old school 1983]

The game is important and stats are just the recording of the action, but it's enough to tell us that Jeff Francore is crap

Otherwise the league would full of junk like him

Well lets look at it for a minute. Jeff francoeur had two pretty productive seasons with the braves that I'd take over Frazier, who unless we forget, this thread is concerning. The rest of his career he seems to have very similar numbers to Frazier, at least to me, but I'm sure someone will dig down to the bowls of stat hell to pull something out that's different to try to prove me wrong. With the exception of RBI, which we all know can be skewed based upon the lineup you're in, the two seem comparable. So if Francoeur is junk in your estimation because of stats then it seems like you evaluate Frazier who has a similar line, at a lower level than myself, who is getting drilled for it, because I say he is around average.

[Don Cameron]

I don't think he's horrible I see him as a decent trade chip because losing his D at third will not be a major loss unless you get a slug out there.

Why--with all of your stats, do you believe he is a decent trade chip? For what? He is 27. And according to you, a sub defensive third baseman. And, with his numbers, a sub-offensive left fielder. So, why would he be a decent trade chip????

The way I see Frazier is his first two years compare pretty closely to Chris Sabo.

Frazier through May 27
218 career games
.258 BA
94 RUNS
31 HR
113 RBI

Sabo 1st two years
219 Career Games
.267 BA
114 RUNS
17 HR
73 RBI

Sabo, has a 2.74 (compared to a 2.55) third baseman defensive range factor and many MANY more stolen bases than Frazier--BUT IN REALITY--they are extremely close to one another in terms of production.

Don Cameron
A lover of Facts

[Old school 1983]

Why--with all of your stats, do you believe he is a decent trade chip? For what? He is 27. And according to you, a sub defensive third baseman. And, with his numbers, a sub-offensive left fielder. So, why would he be a decent trade chip????

The way I see Frazier is his first two years compare pretty closely to Chris Sabo.

Frazier through May 27
218 career games
.258 BA
94 RUNS
31 HR
113 RBI

Sabo 1st two years
219 Career Games
.267 BA
114 RUNS
17 HR
73 RBI

Sabo, has a 2.74 (compared to a 2.55) third baseman defensive range factor and many MANY more stolen bases than Frazier--BUT IN REALITY--they are extremely close to one another in terms of production.

Don Cameron
A lover of Facts

He'd be a good trade chip when combined with prospects. The heart if the deal would be the prospects. He'd make a decent piece to add to a major league roster of a mon contender because he brings plus power with a cheaper contract. Alone you probably couldn't get much for him, but when combined with good prospects he'd add value to a trade. As far as comparing him to sabo, come on dude, the early numbers are similar but spuds was an excellent defender and had excellent speed and stolen base numbers. Sabo also could hit above average pitching. I think this is a case of similar numbers not equaling similar players.

[Old school 1983]

But looking at sabo v Frazier you have to look at where each played. Fraziers numbers were produced in an era of smaller stadiums with a homefield of great American bandbox. Sabo was playing in an era of spacious all turf fields. Put him in today's parks and I think he's a potential 30 30 guy. Also on defense the surface matters. Playing third on an all turf field requires way faster reflexes and reaction times than playing on all grass. So that has to be taken into consideration as well.

Even if you'd ask who'd be more impactful on this current team I'd say sabo. He adds speed and defense and could easily bat second or maybe even 4th on the reds right now. I just see this as a perfect example of how similar stats don't equal similar production in terms or all around game and skills added to a lineup.