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Thread: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

  1. #31
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    So basically your argument is that because a small sample size might not always stay consistent with the larger sample, it shows that the small sample, not the large sample, is the real number to pay attention to?

    I especially don't know why you're laughing at the Heisey example. For his career, he is still 140 points better against RHP than LHP despite the 2012 numbers you cite. If anything, it's more likely that 2012 was a fluke than the other way around given it's still the much smaller sample. You used the term "revert" to describe Heisey's splits. What did he "revert" back to? The 2012 season was the only season where he'd done better against LHP and even that is still dwarfed, statistically, by his other seasons. So isn't it more likely that he was reverting away from his actual skills and that 2012 was more of an outlier?

    Citing a small sample as a trend in order to argue regression to a mean that otherwise hasn't been established isn't at all indicative of anything. It's noise.
    Nice try.

    You said: "Chris Heisey continues to hit better against RHP than LHP." As I understand the word "continues" it means ongoing. Through today.

    The last time Chris Heisey hit better against RHP was 2011. This is unassailable.

    Your sample size argument is also incorrect. Heisey hasn't just hit LHP better over a "small sample" relative to his period hitting better v. RHP.

    Heisey's 2012-13 period, in which he's hit better v. LHP, encompasses 454 PAs. The earlier period you rely on, 2010-11, Heisey's "RHP" period, encompassed 534 PAs. The two periods are roughly equal in sample size, separated only by 80 PAs.

    Heisey makes my point exactly. He's a perfect example of a player who initially showed a reverse trend in hitting same handed pitching. Then, as time went on, he reverted to the norm.

    I won't predict his future trend, but I would reject any idea that he is currently "better against RHP."
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-24-2013 at 07:37 PM.

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  3. #32
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Not all right-handed pitchers are automatically better against left-handers and visa versa. I don't know why you say they "never" hold up, because there are in fact players that do better. Chris Heisey continues to hit better against RHP than LHP.

    RHP/LHP splits aren't the holy grail. They're not always applicable to every player. Some pitchers have tailing fastballs that bite against same-handed batters. Some hitters see the ball better out of the hands of same-handed pitchers.
    Mr. Burns: Strawberry, hit the showers.

    Daryl Strawberry: But, Skip, I've hit 9 home runs today.

    Mr. Burns: Yes, but I'm taking you out for a right handed hitter, since the other team has a left handed pitcher. It's called playing the percentages. It's what smart managers do to win ballgames.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  4. #33
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nice try.

    You said: "Chris Heisey continues to hit better against RHP than LHP." As I understand the word "continues" it means ongoing. Through today.

    The last time Chris Heisey hit better against RHP was 2011. This is unassailable.

    Your sample size argument is also incorrect. Heisey hasn't just hit LHP better over a "small sample" relative to his period hitting better v. RHP.

    Heisey's 2012-13 period, in which he's hit better v. LHP, encompasses 454 PAs. The earlier period you rely on, 2010-11, Heisey's "RHP" period, encompassed 534 PAs. The two periods are roughly equal in sample size, separated only by 80 PAs.

    Heisey makes my point exactly. He's a perfect example of a player who initially showed a reverse trend in hitting same handed pitching. Then, as time went on, he reverted to the norm.

    I won't predict his future trend, but I would reject any idea that he is currently "better against RHP."
    I'll take cherry-picking for $500, Alex. If you combined those two samples, he's still 150 points better against RHP than LHP. How is that helping your point?

    You're actually suggesting that because the second sample is *only* 80 plate appearances less than the first, that we should ignore the 150 point aggregate total difference in favor of *only* the second sample. You're literally trying to dismiss 55% of his total plate appearances in his career thus far in order to establish him as being something other than an outlier. But what's worse is that you're missing a huge aspect of this: 165 of his 260 career plate appearances vs. LHP came in 2010-11. So not only is the sample vs. LHP the last two years very small, but it's even more disproportionate to the overall sample than the total splits themselves. Think maybe Dusty realizes that Heisey isn't as good vs. LHP and so he's been limiting his exposure? Just a hunch.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #34
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    Mr. Burns: Strawberry, hit the showers.

    Daryl Strawberry: But, Skip, I've hit 9 home runs today.

    Mr. Burns: Yes, but I'm taking you out for a right handed hitter, since the other team has a left handed pitcher. It's called playing the percentages. It's what smart managers do to win ballgames.
    I enjoyed that Simpsons' episode!

    Nonetheless, smart managers play percentages based on the specific players and not generalizations or stereotypes. A LH hitter can have a .190 career BA against LHP, but if he's hitting .500 in 40 ABs against a specific lefty, I'm going to let that override the stereotyping of the LH/RH battle.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #35
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'll take cherry-picking for $500, Alex. If you combined those two samples, he's still 150 points better against RHP than LHP. How is that helping your point?

    You're actually suggesting that because the second sample is *only* 80 plate appearances less than the first, that we should ignore the 150 point aggregate total difference in favor of *only* the second sample. You're literally trying to dismiss 55% of his total plate appearances in his career thus far in order to establish him as being something other than an outlier. But what's worse is that you're missing a huge aspect of this: 165 of his 260 career plate appearances vs. LHP came in 2010-11. So not only is the sample vs. LHP the last two years very small, but it's even more disproportionate to the overall sample than the total splits themselves. Think maybe Dusty realizes that Heisey isn't as good vs. LHP and so he's been limiting his exposure? Just a hunch.
    How about changing the subject? Good strategy. This is not about lifetime stats. That wasn't your original point and is not the subject of this discussion.

    Your original point was that Heisey "continues" to hit RHP better than LHP. Your word - "continues." That is simply, manifestly contrary to the statistical evidence.

    In 2012 Heisey had his most PAs of any season he's played. He hit LHP much better than RHP. In 2013, he continued that trend.

    2+2=4. Argue to the contrary if you wish. Heisey has not "continued" to hit RHP better. Period.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-24-2013 at 10:54 PM.

  7. #36
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Dusty had nothing to do with Marshall being hurt. The guy came into ST and over did it.....for whatever reason he forgot the WBC was going to make ST longer. Dusty did not overwork him at all last year.

  8. #37
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Mike Dunn from the Marlins is arb-eligible in 2014 - given that club's allergy to spending money perhaps he could be an option? .661 OPS conceded against LHBs in his career.

  9. #38
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Jose Arredondo has only pitched once since May 14th. His last appearance was on May 18th. I wonder if something is amiss with him?
    As is stated in another thread, Arredondo shows up as 'suspended' on the Bats roster HERE.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Marshall on DL: Parra off DL

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    How about changing the subject? Good strategy. This is not about lifetime stats. That wasn't your original point and is not the subject of this discussion.

    Your original point was that Heisey "continues" to hit RHP better than LHP. Your word - "continues." That is simply, manifestly contrary to the statistical evidence.

    In 2012 Heisey had his most PAs of any season he's played. He hit LHP much better than RHP. In 2013, he continued that trend.

    2+2=4. Argue to the contrary if you wish. Heisey has not "continued" to hit RHP better. Period.
    I said "continues" because I don't yet consider 430 PAs out of a nearly 1,000-PA sample to be representative of a clear trend, as you are suggesting that will always happen with RH/LH hitters against their opposite hand. The point is that Chris Heisey's mean continues (yes, continues) to suggest he's better at hitting RHP than LHP. It is inarguable that his career stats continue to support the likelihood that, going forward, he will be better.

    You can cherry-pick one or two partial seasons all you like, but it doesn't change the big picture.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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