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Thread: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

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    Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    No Reds, but Hamilton and Stephenson are listed in the 5 who just missed. Seems reasonable I guess.

    No mention of whether Cingrani was eligible or considered.
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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    No Reds, but Hamilton and Stephenson are listed in the 5 who just missed. Seems reasonable I guess.

    No mention of whether Cingrani was eligible or considered.
    Will you link us up please? Thanks.
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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    No Reds, but Hamilton and Stephenson are listed in the 5 who just missed. Seems reasonable I guess.

    No mention of whether Cingrani was eligible or considered.
    I don't see why he wouldn't be eligible.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    I just looked up that writer's top 100 list before spring training. Hamilton was at 30 and Stephenson at 48. So the Reds are looking up.

    He had Corcino at 72 and Cingrani at 98 on that February list.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-28-2013 at 02:20 PM.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    What else does Cingrani have to do?

    I know, develope a 2ndary pitch...

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...t-baseball-mlb
    Last edited by bellhead; 05-28-2013 at 02:44 PM.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Don't understand Law's logic.

    He had Wacha off of his top 100 list this spring, but moved him up to 24 because he developed a secondary pitch. Cingrani was higher in the spring list, and not only did he develop a secondary pitch, he was up in the majors for a month and had success. Yet he didn't move up as much as Wacha. Cingrani also was more dominant in the minors this season as well.

    Really makes no sense.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Don't understand Law's logic.

    He had Wacha off of his top 100 list this spring, but moved him up to 24 because he developed a secondary pitch. Cingrani was higher in the spring list, and not only did he develop a secondary pitch, he was up in the majors for a month and had success. Yet he didn't move up as much as Wacha. Cingrani also was more dominant in the minors this season as well.

    Really makes no sense.
    Wacha developed a secondary pitch or he developed his breaking ball? Wacha already had an outstanding change up, so if Law said he developed a breaking ball, that is a huge difference in his arsenal.

    Cingrani certainly changed his secondary breaking ball from a slider to a curve, but his entire lack of confidence in throwing it at the Major League level along with his change up, certainly isn't going to help him beat the reputation that is still out there among some scouts that he is just a reliever.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Wacha developed a secondary pitch or he developed his breaking ball? Wacha already had an outstanding change up, so if Law said he developed a breaking ball, that is a huge difference in his arsenal.

    Cingrani certainly changed his secondary breaking ball from a slider to a curve, but his entire lack of confidence in throwing it at the Major League level along with his change up, certainly isn't going to help him beat the reputation that is still out there among some scouts that he is just a reliever.
    I just don't see how a 3.27 ERA, 41 K's 9 BB's in 35 big league innings doesn't trump a guy who hasn't even pitched in the majors yet. Cingrani had no problem throwing his new pitch in the minors, and we have no idea what Wacha will do in the majors, so it makes no sense to push Wacha ahead of Cingrani at this point. If Wacha shows he can have success in the bigs with his curveball, then I would understand, but at this point it is highly illogical. It literally is putting projection ahead of actual production.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Kyle Gibson and Wacha are two "low upside" arms I wanted to steer clear of in the 2009 and 2011 drafts, respectively. While they are now getting some accolades, I for one am happy that we have Leake and Stephenson/Cingrani instead of those two.

    Wacha was always supposed to be quick path to the majors. The question is how good he can be once he actually gets there. 5.8 K/9 in AAA doesn't scream top-of-the-rotation stuff.
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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I just don't see how a 3.27 ERA, 41 K's 9 BB's in 35 big league innings doesn't trump a guy who hasn't even pitched in the majors yet. Cingrani had no problem throwing his new pitch in the minors, and we have no idea what Wacha will do in the majors, so it makes no sense to push Wacha ahead of Cingrani at this point. If Wacha shows he can have success in the bigs with his curveball, then I would understand, but at this point it is highly illogical. It literally is putting projection ahead of actual production.
    The problem is that while Cingrani was very productive in his stint in the major leagues, he did nothing to disprove the notion that he is a one-pitch pitcher who may end up being a high leverage RP rather than a top of the rotation SP. I don't know enough about Wacha to comment about whether or not he belongs on the list, but from what I've seen from Cingrani I don't think he belongs there.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Kyle Gibson and Wacha are two "low upside" arms I wanted to steer clear of in the 2009 and 2011 drafts, respectively. While they are now getting some accolades, I for one am happy that we have Leake and Stephenson/Cingrani instead of those two.

    Wacha was always supposed to be quick path to the majors. The question is how good he can be once he actually gets there. 5.8 K/9 in AAA doesn't scream top-of-the-rotation stuff.
    Thought he was the second coming of Bob Gibson

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    It may be that Cingrani is ineligible for Law's updated list. He took Profar and Gausman off the list as they had made their debut. But he left Rendon on. The only 1 of 25 who made the list but has debuted. Probably an oversight to have Rendon on the list; and Cingrani was not eligible for it. I asked Keith to comment.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    The problem is that while Cingrani was very productive in his stint in the major leagues, he did nothing to disprove the notion that he is a one-pitch pitcher who may end up being a high leverage RP rather than a top of the rotation SP. I don't know enough about Wacha to comment about whether or not he belongs on the list, but from what I've seen from Cingrani I don't think he belongs there.
    I think Cingrani should be a very highly rated prospect. Cingrani achieved a 124 ERA+ in the majors at a point in his career when his secondary pitches aren't fully formed. He's a 23 year old pitcher who is still a prospect and -- even without the secondary stuff -- was very effective at the big league level and missed many bats.

    I think it's fair to project that such a prospect can develop at least decent (if not average) secondary pitches to go along with a deceptive motion and a very effective fastball.

    As far as I could see, Cingrani's main problem wasn't his lack of secondary pitches, it was a lack of know how or perhaps command. I recall that he let guys like Soriano and Braun homer off him when these were their teams' main RHH threats. Tony should have been more careful with them, he should have had a better plan for them.

    Or maybe it was a lack of command which, again, can be worked on.

    Putting in context Cingrani's relative inexperience in pro ball, his performance was quite remarkable IMO and I think he deserves to be a very highly rated prospect. I don't know about top 25, I don't know all these other guys, but very highly rated.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    The problem is that while Cingrani was very productive in his stint in the major leagues, he did nothing to disprove the notion that he is a one-pitch pitcher who may end up being a high leverage RP rather than a top of the rotation SP. I don't know enough about Wacha to comment about whether or not he belongs on the list, but from what I've seen from Cingrani I don't think he belongs there.
    The thing is that Wacha has done nothing to prove anything one way or the other, and Cingrani was ranked higher than Wacha at the beginning of the season.

    Lets put it another way.

    If Cingrani had not been called up, he would have continued to dominate in the minors, using his secondary pitches, which were a huge improvement over last year, and which were getting minor league hitters out.

    That is all that Wacha has done, dominate in the minors with his new pitch. Until Wacha pitches in the majors and gets major league hitters out with his new curveball, he has done nothing to dispel the notion that he was a two pitch pitcher.

    It simply is illogical, and typical Keith Law, to move Wacha up so much and not Cingrani, when they have done exactly the same thing in the minors, while Cingrani has also had success in the majors.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Law Updated Top 25 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I just don't see how a 3.27 ERA, 41 K's 9 BB's in 35 big league innings doesn't trump a guy who hasn't even pitched in the majors yet. Cingrani had no problem throwing his new pitch in the minors, and we have no idea what Wacha will do in the majors, so it makes no sense to push Wacha ahead of Cingrani at this point. If Wacha shows he can have success in the bigs with his curveball, then I would understand, but at this point it is highly illogical. It literally is putting projection ahead of actual production.
    Well, a few points.

    First, prospect rankings aren't about what you have done, they are about what people believe you will be able to do, over a long period of time, at the Major League level. So what Cingrani did in the Majors doesn't really matter much if it didn't change an outlook on what someone previously believed about a guy.

    Secondly, and I think this is very important: The Reds, someone with them, simply doesn't trust Cingrani's secondary pitches enough against Major Leaguers and that speaks volumes. He threw to three different catchers over a span of 5 weeks. With all three of them he threw 80% or more fastballs. Someone was telling these catchers not to call much for the change or curve. The team that knows him better than anyone else, who has seen every pitch he has thrown as a pro, doesn't trust his secondary stuff at all right now against Major Leaguers. Evaluators are taking note of that and it speaks loudly.

    Thirdly, projection is more important than production with prospects. The biggest reason is, that to remain a prospect, you can't actually have much time in the Majors (50ip, 130 at bats or 45 days on a non-September active roster). So production can be hiding a whole lot of your game that in the long run may very well be exploited.

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