How good can Robert Stephenson be?

[The DARK]

I can't see a scenario where he leapfrogs (assuming Cingrani is in the rotation) 2 or more of Corcino, Villareal, Reineke, and Reynolds/Galarraga if they're back.
In other words, it would take a lot of injuries.

It's not like any of those guys are particularly important to the Reds's future plans, except perhaps Corcino (and he hasn't exactly had a successful season). Still, next season seems a little optimistic, even for a guy of Stephenson's caliber.

[Steve4192]

So here's another conversation I think with visiting; is there any chance, even remotely, that this guy could make the team at any point next year? I'm guessing he will be in AA at the very least by then?

There is a remote chance, but it is pretty darn unlikely.

[redsof72]

I expect to see Stephenson in Pensacola sometime this season.

Difference between April and May has been that in the last 5 starts, he has been constantly in 0-2 and 1-2 counts and when he gets ahead throwing 97 and then drops something off speed, hitter has no chance. That is why you are seeing so many K's with 2-3 putouts. Most of his strikeouts are coming on secondary pitches because he is putting the hitter in a defensive position by getting ahead 0-2 with the heater.

Early in the year, he was pitching behind in the count and most pro hitters can hit a fastball when they can gear up for it in 2-0 or2-1 counts.

In the last start, he threw 8 balls over the first 3 innings. Over the first 5 innings, he threw 52 pitches, meaning he averaged 3.4 pitches per batter, yet he still managed to strike out 6 of the 15. That is amazing.

If you saw the game in person or on TV, you saw what Jocketty saw that night...a pitcher completely over matching an entire lineup.

I said all along, when he starts throwing the curve and change for strikes, the hitters' only chance will be to try to run into a fastball and lately, when they have tried to swing early enough to do that, they found themselves swinging at pitches in the dirt. Robert is smart enough to know that when the hitter has to make his mind up to swing the instant it leaves his hand, there is no reason to throw the ball to a spot where it could possibly be hit. Thus, you have strikeouts with 2-3 putouts.

[lollipopcurve]

I expect to see Stephenson in Pensacola sometime this season.

Interesting.

Somebody give Chris Buckley a raise.

[texasdave]

Does that include a brief stopover in Bakersfield? Or skip that level altogether?

[bellhead]

Does that include a brief stopover in Bakersfield? Or skip that level altogether?

I could see him skipping Cali altogether. A lot of it has to do with life outside baseball. People forget these are young guys who don't have a lot of stability in their lives moving from host family year to year. Send him to Pensacola and give him a 1 and 1/2 there were he can get acclimated and be comfortable. He is still 3 to 4 years away from the show, as he needs to build innings on that arm. I don't want him up hear ala Mike Leake only able to go 150 innings his first year.

[dougdirt]

I could see him skipping Cali altogether. A lot of it has to do with life outside baseball. People forget these are young guys who don't have a lot of stability in their lives moving from host family year to year. Send him to Pensacola and give him a 1 and 1/2 there were he can get acclimated and be comfortable. He is still 3 to 4 years away from the show, as he needs to build innings on that arm. I don't want him up hear ala Mike Leake only able to go 150 innings his first year.

You aren't going to send a guy like Stephenson to AA then say he is another 3-4 years away. If your plan is 3-4 years, you keep him in Dayton this year and maybe give him a taste of Bakersfield in August. Then return him to Bakersfield next year and maybe split the year in Bakersfield/Pensacola. Then start the next year in Pensacola and go from there. But your timeline simply doesn't work if your plan involves Pensacola at all this year.

And like it or not, guys are always going to be on that "Mike Leake" plan of 150-175 innings their first year if they reach the big leagues before they are 24. That is just how it works.

[texasdave]

I was only inquiring about Bakersfield because Stephenson is from California and might want to pitch there. Several of those California League teams are close to his hometown. I have no idea if that is any sort of consideration.

[redsof72]

I don't know. Decisions like that involve a lot of things and can change at the last minute.

When you look at some of these various prospect rankings, even the ones that are updated within the season always have a bit of a delayed effect or lag. Stephenson's last start got a lot of attention. It will interesting to see over the next 10 days what some of the more well-known prospect watchers do with him on their lists.

To go back to the original post in this thread, I am one of those who resists the talk of "ceilings" and the like. Not sure we even know how good Homer Bailey can be yet, or Mike Leake. Differentiating between whether a guy is a top of rotation starter or number 3 or 4...I know a lot of people do that but I just don't see it.

We know this: Stephenson has the best fastball this system has seen from a homegrown starter in decades. His curve and change are strikeout pitches and getting better. He's a very serious minded player who works hard, is smart, and stays away from trouble.

[Tom Servo]

I was only inquiring about Bakersfield because Stephenson is from California and might want to pitch there. Several of those California League teams are close to his hometown. I have no idea if that is any sort of consideration.

That's a good point. Ironically, of the 5 teams in the California League's Northern Division, Bakersfield and the Blaze are furthest away from Stephenson's hometown of Martinez.

[lollipopcurve]

We know this: Stephenson has the best fastball this system has seen from a homegrown starter in decades. His curve and change are strikeout pitches and getting better. He's a very serious minded player who works hard, is smart, and stays away from trouble.

For all of these reasons, he is about as good a candidate for fast tracking as you can get.

[bellhead]

You aren't going to send a guy like Stephenson to AA then say he is another 3-4 years away. If your plan is 3-4 years, you keep him in Dayton this year and maybe give him a taste of Bakersfield in August. Then return him to Bakersfield next year and maybe split the year in Bakersfield/Pensacola. Then start the next year in Pensacola and go from there. But your timeline simply doesn't work if your plan involves Pensacola at all this year.

And like it or not, guys are always going to be on that "Mike Leake" plan of 150-175 innings their first year if they reach the big leagues before they are 24. That is just how it works.

For the Reds is there any benefit to him hitting the majors early before age 24?

[Wonderful Monds]

For the Reds is there any benefit to him hitting the majors early before age 24?

He might have nothing left to develop in the minors? He will probably be better off getting the hang of the majors by then.

[mth123]

For the Reds is there any benefit to him hitting the majors early before age 24?

Well, somebody has to pitch. Arroyo leaves this year and Cingrani should fill that hole. After next season, Homer is probably gone. Mike Leake is probably in line for a $5 to $6 Million arb award in 2014 and maybe nearing $10 Million by 2015. The Reds may look to move (or non-tender) him at those costs. After 2015, Latos, Cueto and Leake need to be extended or are gone. I don't want to rush anyone, but if Stephenson might be ready, I'd rather let him take a shot at establishing himself in the major leagues before having to make those decisions. Again, don't rush the kid, but if they think he's ready, I wouldn't hold him back either. The Reds staff probably will turn-over before 2017 (when RS will be 24)

Dan Corcino, is possibly stiil in the mix somewhere, but I've seen it suggested, more than once, that he profiles more as a reliever. After him, there are a lot of questionable options. Sharky Rogers? Carlos Contreras? Drew Cisco? Sal Romano? I think those guys are more in the back-end mold (except maybe for Contreras) and many may end-up in the pen. Stephenson is the guy to take one of those top spots.

[Drugs Delaney]

Well, somebody has to pitch. Arroyo leaves this year and Cingrani should fill that hole. After next season, Homer is probably gone. Mike Leake is probably in line for a $5 to $6 Million arb award in 2014 and maybe nearing $10 Million by 2015. The Reds may look to move (or non-tender) him at those costs. After 2015, Latos, Cueto and Leake need to be extended or are gone. I don't want to rush anyone, but if Stephenson might be ready, I'd rather let him take a shot at establishing himself in the major leagues before having to make those decisions. Again, don't rush the kid, but if they think he's ready, I wouldn't hold him back either. The Reds staff probably will turn-over before 2017 (when RS will be 24)

Dan Corcino, is possibly stiil in the mix somewhere, but I've seen it suggested, more than once, that he profiles more as a reliever. After him, there are a lot of questionable options. Sharky Rogers? Carlos Contreras? Drew Cisco? Sal Romano? I think those guys are more in the back-end mold (except maybe for Contreras) and many may end-up in the pen. Stephenson is the guy to take one of those top spots.

I think maybe next offseason could be the time to move Homer Bailey if the Reds don't think they can extend him. Especially if Arroyo is willing to take a hometown discount on a 2 year deal and the Reds are able to get a major league ready power hitting LF for Homer.

If you could pull that off, the timing could work out perfectly with Arroyo bridging the gap until Stephenson's arrival. A cheap young LF increases your chances of being able to afford both Cueto and Latos on long term extensions.