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Thread: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

  1. #61
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by CARDINALred View Post
    We all ought to agree that over the course of 162 games these things tend to even out, and that the Indians and Royals are both below-average baseball teams.

    Right?
    Right now, we really have no idea. One team could easily end up 10-15 ahead of the other. Both have strengths, both have flaws. The Tribe has fewer black holes, but the Royals have better pitching. I could see either team contend or flop at season's end.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #62
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Right now, we really have no idea. One team could easily end up 10-15 ahead of the other. Both have strengths, both have flaws. The Tribe has fewer black holes, but the Royals have better pitching. I could see either team contend or flop at season's end.
    "No idea"??

    We have some idea.
    We will win the world series.

  4. #63
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    SOS and evaluating a team by the W/L ratio is interesting, but has difficulty translating W/L probability, as that is a much more complicated metric that either of those stats could ever dream of providing.

    Pitching vs Batter matchups, overall health of team, are they in a slump or on a winning streak, are they well rested or tired, are they playing at home or away, etc etc etc. Too many times throughout many seasons in baseball, the statistically inferior teams get upsets against statistically superior teams (2011 NLDS series, 2012 NLDS series, 2013 Subway Series, etc etc etc).

    So bottom line... while looking at the stats is interesting, the only reliable way to evaluate a team win probability IMHO, is to look at how each is performing at THAT particular instance in the season and stack them up.

    For instance, in 2012 I would have looked at the End of May/Early June Dodgers (Leading MLB by 4 games) very differently than the End of June Dodgers (8 game losing streak)

  5. #64
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    SOS and evaluating a team by the W/L ratio is interesting, but has difficulty translating W/L probability, as that is a much more complicated metric that either of those stats could ever dream of providing.

    Pitching vs Batter matchups, overall health of team, are they in a slump or on a winning streak, are they well rested or tired, are they playing at home or away, etc etc etc. Too many times throughout many seasons in baseball, the statistically inferior teams get upsets against statistically superior teams (2011 NLDS series, 2012 NLDS series, 2013 Subway Series, etc etc etc).

    So bottom line... while looking at the stats is interesting, the only reliable way to evaluate a team win probability IMHO, is to look at how each is performing at THAT particular instance in the season and stack them up.

    For instance, in 2012 I would have looked at the End of May/Early June Dodgers (Leading MLB by 4 games) very differently than the End of June Dodgers (8 game losing streak)

    But that's just the point. Whos the say that those early June Dodgers were the 'true' dodgers? Maybe they were just being lucky at that time...playing over their heads. Why did the go on an eight game losing streak? Did they lose their best 3 players to injury or did they simply come down to earth? And teams very often go through whats called a "west coast" or Cetral swing, meaning if the dodgers play the Reds this week, they are likely gonna play the Cards and another Central team in the same road trip or home stand so both teams will get the getting either the 'hot' or 'cold' dodgers at around the same times. SoS evens out, its simple as that.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike3Called View Post
    But that's just the point. Whos the say that those early June Dodgers were the 'true' dodgers? Maybe they were just being lucky at that time...playing over their heads. Why did the go on an eight game losing streak? Did they lose their best 3 players to injury or did they simply come down to earth? And teams very often go through whats called a "west coast" or Cetral swing, meaning if the dodgers play the Reds this week, they are likely gonna play the Cards and another Central team in the same road trip or home stand so both teams will get the getting either the 'hot' or 'cold' dodgers at around the same times. SoS evens out, its simple as that.
    What's the point?

    My point is that I don't care if SoS evens out in the end. Using SoS now to try and determine who has an easier playing schedule provides and incomplete picture for determining W/L probability...... for all of the reasons you've said.

    So looking at SoS and saying the Reds have the easier schedule doesn't carry so much water in my book. There are more situational factors to take into consideration. Yeah sure the Marlins suck most of the year... but even they can carry a winning streak and represent a formidable foe in August, when in June they were knocked around by everyone (sounds like the 2011 Cards).

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    SOS and evaluating a team by the W/L ratio is interesting, but has difficulty translating W/L probability, as that is a much more complicated metric that either of those stats could ever dream of providing.

    Pitching vs Batter matchups, overall health of team, are they in a slump or on a winning streak, are they well rested or tired, are they playing at home or away, etc etc etc. Too many times throughout many seasons in baseball, the statistically inferior teams get upsets against statistically superior teams (2011 NLDS series, 2012 NLDS series, 2013 Subway Series, etc etc etc).

    So bottom line... while looking at the stats is interesting, the only reliable way to evaluate a team win probability IMHO, is to look at how each is performing at THAT particular instance in the season and stack them up.

    For instance, in 2012 I would have looked at the End of May/Early June Dodgers (Leading MLB by 4 games) very differently than the End of June Dodgers (8 game losing streak)
    Excellent point. When a team is going bad, anyone can beat them. When they are going good, they can beat anybody.

    Obviously, there are teams that are patently bad throughout most of the year, but even Miami can win 5 in a row at some point.

    Conversely, the upper echelon rarely slump more than a week to 10 days.
    We can share the women, we can share the wine.

  8. #67
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    The biggest difference? The Reds have the best fan-board on the web. It's such a great board it attracts every fanbase.

    That said I don't think there is much between these two teams. I don't think that the Cards can sustain their current form, but stranger things have happened. I would still favour the Reds in a playoff series if for no other reason than I think their roster is more proven.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    The biggest difference? The Reds have the best fan-board on the web. It's such a great board it attracts every fanbase.

    That said I don't think there is much between these two teams. I don't think that the Cards can sustain their current form, but stranger things have happened. I would still favour the Reds in a playoff series if for no other reason than I think their roster is more proven.
    The Reds roster is more proven so you would favor them in a playoff series? More proven? Really? How many guys on the Reds roster have World Series rings? How many have even won a playoff series. I disagree with the more proven theory. Sorry.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    The way I see it, the Cardinals are a better team than anyone in the league right now. Arguably, whether they "are" better or have just "played" better is up to individual perception and opinion. Clearly they've scored more runs than the Reds, given up fewer runs than the Reds, won more games than the Reds, and beaten them consistently in head to head meetings thus far in the season. None of which really matters at all when the playoffs arrive. Let the Cardinals and their fans feel superior until October. Then the Reds can either prove them wrong or justify their arrogance.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    It's really silly. The Cardinals are the best team in baseball. No one is even close.

    The Reds, will compete with about 8 other teams for 2nd best. As of today, The reds are .500 team when they aren't playing the Cubs or Marlins. So I would take the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Diamondbacks, Rangers, A's and Tigers over them.

    Quite frankly, I'm not impressed with the Reds at all.

    And until they compete in a series against the Cardinals, this isn't even a discussion.

  12. #71
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by WAKEUP View Post
    It's really silly. The Cardinals are the best team in baseball. No one is even close.

    The Reds, will compete with about 8 other teams for 2nd best. As of today, The reds are .500 team when they aren't playing the Cubs or Marlins. So I would take the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Diamondbacks, Rangers, A's and Tigers over them.

    Quite frankly, I'm not impressed with the Reds at all.

    And until they compete in a series against the Cardinals, this isn't even a discussion.
    Gee thanks, come by anytime and talk down to us

  13. #72
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by ajswartz888 View Post
    The Reds roster is more proven so you would favor them in a playoff series? More proven? Really? How many guys on the Reds roster have World Series rings? How many have even won a playoff series. I disagree with the more proven theory. Sorry.
    LOL.

    He meant more proven as in they have more experience and you know what you should be able to expect from them going forward. He means the individual players. Look who the cards are relying on: Mujica, Rosenthal, Miller, Lyons, Matt Carpenter playing 2B for the first time, Freese and Beltran you just don't know how many games they'll miss. The Cards have a lot of rookies and fragile players so these are people who aren't 'proven' and if they are proven (in the case of Freese and Beltran) you just don't know how well they'll hold up. The Reds aren't relying on my rookies so your team is more proven.

    LOL cant believe you didn't understand what he meant.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike3Called View Post
    LOL.

    He meant more proven as in they have more experience and you know what you should be able to expect from them going forward. He means the individual players. Look who the cards are relying on: Mujica, Rosenthal, Miller, Lyons, Matt Carpenter playing 2B for the first time, Freese and Beltran you just don't know how many games they'll miss. The Cards have a lot of rookies and fragile players so these are people who aren't 'proven' and if they are proven (in the case of Freese and Beltran) you just don't know how well they'll hold up. The Reds aren't relying on my rookies so your team is more proven.

    LOL cant believe you didn't understand what he meant.
    Yeah, I disagree with you. While we have a bunch of rookies contributing, the heart of this team -- it's leaders and core players -- have been in a TON of playoff games. A couple even have two World Series rings. The experience factor still heavily leans towards the Birds.

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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by CardsFanBob View Post
    Yeah, I disagree with you. While we have a bunch of rookies contributing, the heart of this team -- it's leaders and core players -- have been in a TON of playoff games. A couple even have two World Series rings. The experience factor still heavily leans towards the Birds.
    When the vast majority of one team has never even won a playoff series it's pretty hard to understand how they could have a leg up on experience.

  16. #75
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    Re: the Difference between Reds and Cardinals

    Quote Originally Posted by CardsFanBob View Post
    Yeah, I disagree with you. While we have a bunch of rookies contributing, the heart of this team -- it's leaders and core players -- have been in a TON of playoff games. A couple even have two World Series rings. The experience factor still heavily leans towards the Birds.
    Come on man I know we are both card fans but why do you have to do this? You just said that we have 'a bunch' of rookies contributing. In my post I acknowledged that we have proven talent and a whole lot of rookies so whats the point of this post? We have a bunch of rookies contributing, period and they have NO rookies contributing so that means that their players have more proven track records than we do, period. Its not about the playoffs...its about baseball games PERIOD.

    You know what...that's my fault and I apologize. You disagree with me. You have the right to disagree with me and I shouldn't get bent out of shape about it. Again...I apologize. Its just that I stay away from Cards boards for this very reason and I lurked here for a long time and didn't have to see posts like this and now these posts are everywhere but that is not your problem and I shouldn't take it out on you.
    Last edited by dabvu2498; 06-14-2013 at 11:29 AM.


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