Billy Hamilton's Position

[Benihana]

Just for reference, Phillips and Bruce are signed on for 2017. That's a mile off still.

If they are enamored with Choo enough to spot him 5-100, then that would be bad for Billy. However, if Choo is gone then I can see Ervin - Hamilton - Bruce in the OF, with Bruce even moving to LF if he slows down and/or signs a lifetime Red type contract.

That would be a great defensive outfield in 3 years. Add 4th outfielder with power to supplement and it would be just fine offensively as well.

Of course, if Hamilton himself becomes a 4th or 5th outfielder, then we could be seeing a whole other alignment, one that could really still fit Choo in LF.

We've seen that a 4th OF will get some at bats, so Hamilton and Ervin will be keys.

No one said anything about Bruce- he is entrenched in RF for the next five years.

Phillips however may need to move off of 2B as he winds down his career in a few years (2B is much more physically demanding for a 35 year old than RF is for a 30 year old.) Beyond that, much of Ervin's value is based off of his ability to stick in CF. if hes not playing CF for the Reds in a few years, the Reds overdrafted him. Likewise, if Hamilton isn't the starting CF by this time next year, the Reds are better off cashing in on his prospect value and trading him now. If he ends up as a 4th OF, the Reds will have played this wrong.

Also don't forget about Jesse Winker in all of this. The best OF bat in the system since Bruce.

[mdccclxix]

No one said anything about Bruce- he is entrenched in RF for the next five years.

Phillips however
may need to move off of 2B as he winds down his career in a few years (2B is much more physically demanding for a 35 year old than RF is for a 30 year old.) Beyond that, much of Ervin's value is based off of his ability to stick in CF. if hes not playing CF for the Reds in a few years, the Reds overdrafted him. Likewise, if Hamilton isn't the starting CF by this time next year, the Reds are better off cashing in on his prospect value and trading him now. If he ends up as a 4th OF, the Reds will have played this wrong.

Oh, I think I must've read someone mention Bruce in the Ervin thread, sorry.

A couple of things though. I don't think Brandon will move off 2b. Where would he go? 3b? I don't doubt he could do it, or that he would try, but I just don't see the Reds doing that. Phillips stays in top shape, he may lose 1/2 a step, but he'll be at 2b.

Hamilton's prospect status probably has a lot more lead than most since he has a lot of size and strength questions to answer at the MLB level. His start this year hasn't helped him. IMO, the day of reckoning at the MLB level for Hamilton will come sooner than the development or decision on Ervin in CF or RF. I think the Reds would be inclined to find out if Hamilton can play CF and lead off in 2014 and beyond, even if he's struggling. And if he's struggling, who would trade for him?

Your hypothetical Hamilton trade is in a tough and immediate spot created only by the idea that Ervin might be better in CF. It would be a bold move for sure, and one dependent on trading a top 25 player who is actually moving forward well enough. It's just an impossible question to answer. And I'm withholding the fact that many have said that he'd be a good RF 20/20 guy (which is where I think possibly moving Bruce to LF came to mind.) Heck, Ervin himself might be the 4th outfielder when he comes up.

There are just so many possibilities at this point, I think holding on to your best talent makes most sense. I'm not worried about Phillips replacement, but finding a SS would be nice in next year's draft or maybe internationally this year. Quite a lot of other teams were diving for SS's last night too.

[mdccclxix]

You mentioned Winker too. I could see

2014: Ludwick - Hamilton/Heisey/FA stopgap - Bruce
2015: Ludwick - Hamilton/Heisey - Bruce
2016: FA stopgap/Winker/Ervin - Hamilton/Ervin - Bruce/Ervin
2017: Winker/Ervin - Hamilton/Ervin - Bruce/Ervin
2018+: Winker - Hamilton - Ervin

If Ervin outplays Winker or Hamilton you might see him win a job outright and / or they resign Bruce to a lifer contract. But the projected depth above, not including other role players or stars to emerge, is worth considering keeping instead of trading prospect for prospect this year.

[mdccclxix]

We've seen, if you have wheels and can pick it in CF, the Reds will give a long look at you. That's another reason I'd be surprise if Hamilton isn't given a good 1-2 year shot in CF in Cincinnati.

[Benihana]

5th Round pick Cory Thompson seems like Billy Hamilton redux. A little less speed and a little better arm, but still. In another organization, Thompson would probably be in line for a move to CF. But with Hamilton, Ervin, Arias and Reynoso already in the system, that probably doesn't make sense.